Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Benton Heights, MI

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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN

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FXUS63 KIWX 132310 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 610 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 334 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

There is a chance of light rain and light snow tonight, across northwest Ohio. Any snow accumulations will be minor. Cloudy skies are expected Saturday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. There is a low chance of light rain or light snow late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

The second half of the weekend will be colder, with a potential storm system to affect the area on Monday with accumulating snow or a wintry mix.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 334 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Low level dry layer shown on morning soundings have helped to keep the area free of any precip despite light echos showing up on regional radar. Going into this evening and overnight, will see a broad surface low lift NNE across the central and northeastern Ohio River Valley. Models show precipitation on the backside of the system spread westwards across northeastern IN and northwest OH after midnight. While there is some discrepancies on how far west the precipitation will make it during the overnight hours, generally locations east of I-69 have been favored in the forecast. Forecast soundings show that p-types should be rain/snow across the far eastern counties with slightly better chances for snow further west. Any snow amounts that do occur will be generally a few tenths of an inch.

There could be some lingering light snow/drizzle after sunrise Saturday across the far northeastern IN/northwest OH, but these should clear the area fairly quickly as the associated upper trough swings through. A cold front continues to be forecast to slide southeast across the area as Saturday progresses. This cooler airmass will result in increasing deltaT over Lake MI and allow light LES showers to develop. Inversion heights are not expected to be limited, as well as a lack of saturation in the DGZ. Have maintained a mixture of snow and drizzle during the daytime hours. As temperatures dip below freezing Saturday evening, freezing drizzle will start to mix-in. As winds shift more out of the west to southwest late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, the fetch across the lake becomes insufficient to prolong LES shower/drizzle. Given the marginally favorable parameters for LES, have limited snow amounts to a few tenths generally along and north of I-80. A few slick spots can't be ruled out on elevated surfaces and bridges late Saturday night/early Sunday morning for the area described.

LONG TERM. (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 334 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Broad positively tilted trough swings into the Plains during the afternoon on Sunday as a surface low deepends near the OK/AK statelines. This surface low is then anticipated to take a northeast track through the evening and into the overnight hours. Unfortunately, models continue to struggle to hone in on the further evolution of the system from this point onward.

12z GFS shifted slightly further south with the surface low, but to a much smaller degree than 24 hours ago. The most notable change is a slightly faster progression of the surface low than previously seen. This is the result of the upper trough being more pronounced as it progresses east. While it's still fairly new for the NAM, there has been some consistency of the northward positioning of the surface low however, timing is slightly faster as seen in the GFS. The 12z EC has maintained it's status of the southern most outlier, but it has also greatly slowed the progression of the system due to a slower upper trough. Given these ongoing discrepancies, have stuck closer to a blended forecast.

With this in mind, precip chances slowly expand to the northeast Sunday night along an outer Fgen band. As we move into Monday, 12z NAM/GFS continue to present a sizable fgen band lifting into the area in conjunction with a low level omega maxima. This continues the concern for mesobanding and associated window for increased snowfall rates. Forecast soundings have also shown the potential for some mixed precipitation, possibly freezing rain, as a warm nose nears/moves into the southern counties as the day progresses. There is some near/sub-freezing temperatures below the warm nose so sleet can't entirely be ruled out. Did go ahead and insert slight chance for freezing rain into the forecast, but restricted any ice accumulation given model differences. Most models show the surface low lifting across OH and into the Northeastern states Monday night into Tuesday. Accumulating storm total snow remains possible across the area, but amounts will vary on the track and expanse of the warm nose intrusion.

Other than another shot of light lake effect snow across the northwest Tuesday night, fairly quiet weather expected for the second half of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 610 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

VFR to start but with dwindling flight conditions expected Sat morning as a weak cold front wraps ewd in response to downstream low pressure developing through the ern lakes. Threshold LIFR/IFR stratus expected to develop for a time Sat morning within moist but shallow post frontal cold advection wing and worth a mention here as deeper cold advection holds off til aftn timed with improving cig heights into MVFR.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Marsili/CM SHORT TERM . CM LONG TERM . CM AVIATION . T

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI	4 mi	81 min	SSE 4.1 G 7	38°F			1011.2 hPa (-1.0)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI	21 mi	51 min	ESE 2.9 G 4.1	37°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN	37 mi	51 min	SSE 7 G 7	38°F				30°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI	47 mi	51 min	E 5.1 G 6	31°F	35°F		1009.4 hPa	31°F

Wind History for Holland, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI	2 mi	28 min	N 0	8.00 mi	Fair	30°F	26°F	85%	1010.4 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI	19 mi	26 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	29°F	27°F	96%	1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (22,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN

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