Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Benton Heights, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 5:15PM Friday December 13, 2019 10:21 PM EST (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:46PMMoonset 9:25AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds around 5 knots veering northwest toward daybreak. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the day.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing southeast after midnight. Cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots backing northeast late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201912141000;;748580 FZUS53 KGRR 140305 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-141000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Benton Heights, MI
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location: 42.11, -86.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 132310 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 610 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 334 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

There is a chance of light rain and light snow tonight, across northwest Ohio. Any snow accumulations will be minor. Cloudy skies are expected Saturday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. There is a low chance of light rain or light snow late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

The second half of the weekend will be colder, with a potential storm system to affect the area on Monday with accumulating snow or a wintry mix.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 334 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Low level dry layer shown on morning soundings have helped to keep the area free of any precip despite light echos showing up on regional radar. Going into this evening and overnight, will see a broad surface low lift NNE across the central and northeastern Ohio River Valley. Models show precipitation on the backside of the system spread westwards across northeastern IN and northwest OH after midnight. While there is some discrepancies on how far west the precipitation will make it during the overnight hours, generally locations east of I-69 have been favored in the forecast. Forecast soundings show that p-types should be rain/snow across the far eastern counties with slightly better chances for snow further west. Any snow amounts that do occur will be generally a few tenths of an inch.

There could be some lingering light snow/drizzle after sunrise Saturday across the far northeastern IN/northwest OH, but these should clear the area fairly quickly as the associated upper trough swings through. A cold front continues to be forecast to slide southeast across the area as Saturday progresses. This cooler airmass will result in increasing deltaT over Lake MI and allow light LES showers to develop. Inversion heights are not expected to be limited, as well as a lack of saturation in the DGZ. Have maintained a mixture of snow and drizzle during the daytime hours. As temperatures dip below freezing Saturday evening, freezing drizzle will start to mix-in. As winds shift more out of the west to southwest late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, the fetch across the lake becomes insufficient to prolong LES shower/drizzle. Given the marginally favorable parameters for LES, have limited snow amounts to a few tenths generally along and north of I-80. A few slick spots can't be ruled out on elevated surfaces and bridges late Saturday night/early Sunday morning for the area described.

LONG TERM. (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 334 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Broad positively tilted trough swings into the Plains during the afternoon on Sunday as a surface low deepends near the OK/AK statelines. This surface low is then anticipated to take a northeast track through the evening and into the overnight hours. Unfortunately, models continue to struggle to hone in on the further evolution of the system from this point onward.

12z GFS shifted slightly further south with the surface low, but to a much smaller degree than 24 hours ago. The most notable change is a slightly faster progression of the surface low than previously seen. This is the result of the upper trough being more pronounced as it progresses east. While it's still fairly new for the NAM, there has been some consistency of the northward positioning of the surface low however, timing is slightly faster as seen in the GFS. The 12z EC has maintained it's status of the southern most outlier, but it has also greatly slowed the progression of the system due to a slower upper trough. Given these ongoing discrepancies, have stuck closer to a blended forecast.

With this in mind, precip chances slowly expand to the northeast Sunday night along an outer Fgen band. As we move into Monday, 12z NAM/GFS continue to present a sizable fgen band lifting into the area in conjunction with a low level omega maxima. This continues the concern for mesobanding and associated window for increased snowfall rates. Forecast soundings have also shown the potential for some mixed precipitation, possibly freezing rain, as a warm nose nears/moves into the southern counties as the day progresses. There is some near/sub-freezing temperatures below the warm nose so sleet can't entirely be ruled out. Did go ahead and insert slight chance for freezing rain into the forecast, but restricted any ice accumulation given model differences. Most models show the surface low lifting across OH and into the Northeastern states Monday night into Tuesday. Accumulating storm total snow remains possible across the area, but amounts will vary on the track and expanse of the warm nose intrusion.

Other than another shot of light lake effect snow across the northwest Tuesday night, fairly quiet weather expected for the second half of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 610 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

VFR to start but with dwindling flight conditions expected Sat morning as a weak cold front wraps ewd in response to downstream low pressure developing through the ern lakes. Threshold LIFR/IFR stratus expected to develop for a time Sat morning within moist but shallow post frontal cold advection wing and worth a mention here as deeper cold advection holds off til aftn timed with improving cig heights into MVFR.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Marsili/CM SHORT TERM . CM LONG TERM . CM AVIATION . T

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook . Twitter . and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 4 mi81 min SSE 4.1 G 7 38°F 1011.2 hPa (-1.0)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 21 mi51 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 37°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 37 mi51 min SSE 7 G 7 38°F 30°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 47 mi51 min E 5.1 G 6 31°F 35°F1009.4 hPa31°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI2 mi28 minN 08.00 miFair30°F26°F85%1010.4 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI19 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair29°F27°F96%1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S10S11S9
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S7S9S8S7S6S4S4S6S5S75S5S7S6S5CalmSE4CalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.