Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Benton Heights, MI

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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN

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FXUS63 KIWX 270845 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 345 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

Mild temperatures will persist through the weekend with another chance of rain late tonight into Sunday. Breezy conditions are expected late Sunday and again Monday with gusts up to 35 mph possible After a brief cool down Monday into Tuesday. temperatures will moderate again for the middle and end of next week.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

First shortwave and associated round of isentropic ascent on the way out this morning. Chances for light rain will continue mainly in our eastern counties until around 12Z. Bulk of today period remains dry as midlevel ridge/AVA support increasing subsidence with transient surface high sliding across the Ohio Valley. Main question will be cloud cover trends and associated impact on high temps. Some concern for low level moisture to get trapped under increasing subsidence inversion today (especially given cold ground/residual snow) and maintain low clouds longer than anticipated However. not much snowpack left across most of our area and upstream with visibilities generally holding in the 1-3SM range. Upstream satellite and other observational data sets also indicate a healthy surge of dry air advection as reflected in model RH fields and forecast soundings. May hold onto clouds through the morning (especially E/SE) but do anticipate a period of clearing (NW by later this morning and everywhere by early afternoon) before clouds increase again ahead of next wave later today. This leads to a challenging high temp forecast as numerical guidance struggling immensely with degree of mixing given cold/moist surface conditions. Guidance varies all the way from mid 30s to mid 50s. Stayed close to previous forecast of mid 40s to low 50s which is on the warm end of the spectrum but has a good cluster of support among guidance. However further adjustments may be necessary in either direction depending on cloud trends.

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

Another very similar wave shears northeast late tonight into early Sunday. A little better 250mb jet support seen in latest guidance supporting a modest fgen band swiping our area with the best chances for precip in our SE. Have therefore raised PoPs accordingly. QPF amounts generally around a tenth will not have significant impact on the rivers but we continue to monitor the impacts of snowmelt and the potential for ice jams as thawing continues. Wet bulb profiles appear sufficiently warm for an all-liquid event even in our far northern counties. Another tricky high temp forecast on Sunday. Anticipate mostly cloudy skies but very warm/moist air gets drawn north ahead of the cold front and potential for our SE zones to make a run at 60F while NW zones remain stuck in the 40s. Exact timing of frontal passage will dictate final gradient placement and models continue to struggle with that.

Two rounds of decent CAA anticipated late Sunday and again late Monday. Each will bring with it a brief chance for lake effect/ enhanced precip along with gusty winds. Better moisture profiles with deep cyclonic flow on Sunday but thermal profiles are not great and any precip will likely fall as just rain. Much colder air arrives Monday but moisture is lacking and time window for any light snow showers appears very brief around midday Mon. Added some low- end chances for both of these time periods but not anticipating any impacts. Tight gradient, decent isentropic descent, and good mixing in CAA regime will also lead to gusty winds both late Sun and again on Mon. Wind gusts up to 30-35 mph possible with the highest gusts anticipated in our northern counties.

Rest of the forecast period currently appears tranquil. After a brief return to cold temps Mon night . temps quickly moderate back into the 50s by mid/late week. Maintained just a slight chance PoP in our SE Tue night out of respect for ECMWF solution Otherwise. period likely to remain dry (though confidence decreases by late week as models continue to struggle with evolving longwave pattern).

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1234 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

Light rain is expected to let up by about 11 or 12z with MVFR flight conditions descending into IFR and LIFR at times during this period as well. Expect those conditions to quickly leave SBN, but may linger into early Saturday afternoon at FWA as remnant low level moisture takes its time to leave. Dry air overhead should keep clouds at bay for the rest of the day Saturday, but Saturday night likely sees flight conditions descend again as moisture in the remnant snowpack and dew points around freezing likely creates stratus or FG/BR.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . AGD SHORT TERM . AGD LONG TERM . AGD AVIATION . Roller

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI	4 mi	89 min	S 8 G 12	35°F			1011.9 hPa (+1.4)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI	21 mi	49 min	11 G 12	34°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN	37 mi	39 min	SW 9.9 G 11	37°F				36°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI	47 mi	59 min	S 8.9 G 9.9	32°F	34°F		1010.1 hPa	32°F

Wind History for Holland, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI	2 mi	36 min	WSW 8	6.00 mi	Fog/Mist	36°F	34°F	93%	1012 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI	19 mi	34 min	WSW 8	5.00 mi	Fog/Mist	36°F	34°F	94%	1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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