Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Benton Heights, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A 55 to 65 knot upper speed max progressing through southwest upper flow and strong low level moisture transport is aiding in multiple clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area. Low level CIN has developed locally which should tend to decrease this convection over next few hours. Some lingering outflow has resulted in some isolated gusts over 40 mph, and this may continue to be the case through 10Z. While additional precipitation this morning may only be in the quarter to half inch range with the heavier pockets of rainfall, this added rain in areas which have experienced heavy multi-day rain amounts could lead to some minor flooding. Current expectation is that Flood Watch will be allowed to expire at 12Z.

For today, the more amplified upper level trough will lift northeast to southeast Ontario as it encounters and dampens the stubborn mean eastern CONUS upper ridge. This track will make for slow southeast progress to lagging low level front this afternoon. Deeper moisture axis should be shifting east of the local area this morning, but cooling aloft with the upper level low track should allow for some weak to moderate sfc based instability to develop this afternoon (500-1200 J/kg). The track of mid/upper level reflection will result in gradually waning deep layer shear profiles today, and thus not a great co-location of instability/shear parameters. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be completed ruled out especially in a brief window during mid-late afternoon closer to the upper level system where mid level lapse rates are maximized across NE IN/SC Lower MI/far NW Ohio, but overall severe threat today is substantially lower than previous few days.

With only a partial dampening of the eastern CONUS ridging today, associated sfc boundary is not expected to make significant southward progress tonight and will likely stall across northern IN/northwest OH tonight. Weak flow in vicinity of this trough, partial clearing and likely good near sfc moisture lingering beneath low level inversion suggest potential of fog formation tonight.

Mid level ridging quickly amplifies Thursday night into Friday downstream of a more significant upper level trough that will dig across the Rockies on Friday. Strong low level moisture transport will be confined west of the local area from southern Plains into eastern Iowa on Friday which is where convective initiation is expected. Progression of this longwave feature will increase convective chances locally especially after 06Z Friday night.
Upstream convective line should tend to outrun better instability as it reaches western Great Lakes overnight Friday night, but potential exists that some severe wind potential could be maintained into western portions of the forecast area overnight. Strong background wind fields should also yield strong westerly 0-3km line normal shear vectors which could induce some QLCS processes. Far southeast portions of the forecast remain in SWODY3 Marginal Risk outlook, with overall trend to fast frontal progression likely limiting severe risk locally for Saturday afternoon.

Sunday and Monday will feature below normal temps behind the associated Saturday cold front but mid level heights should recover late Monday in advance of a more broad south central Canadian upper trough. A cool frontal boundary with this feature will likely graze southern Great Lakes region for middle of next week. It does appear as though we could be headed to a more seasonable temperature pattern next week with indications in medium range guidance of a more stable longwave pattern developing of western CONUS trough, central CONUS ridge, and eastern CONUS trough. This would result in more limited day to day thermal advections and at least some break from the active recent severe weather pattern.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 550 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A 60-70 knot upper speed max progressing through southwest upper flow and low level moisture transport have helped sustain showers across northern Indiana this morning. Over the next few hours better moisture transport and deeper moisture profiles will shift east of the area with an accompanying decrease in shower coverage. The greater coverage of additional showers/isolated thunderstorms today is expected across far northern/northeast Indiana as an upper level trough shifts across the Great Lakes. Steeper mid level lapse rates with this feature should result in scattered showers/isolated storms this afternoon. With low level moisture profiles not as impressive today, coverage should be more limited and will limit shower mention to PROB30 this afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, but confidence is too for TAF inclusion given more limited instability. Cig forecast is of low confidence to begin this period. Proximity of low level boundary to Lake Michigan leads to come concern for MVFR or IFR cigs early this morning before better low level mixing occurs. Deteriorating aviation conditions are possible tonight as sfc trough should sink across far northern Indiana with greater fog potential late this period given weakening winds, partial clearing, lingering low level moisture trapped beneath the inversion.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104- 116-203-204-216.
OH...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025.
MI...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.