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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1105 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest to 30 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots veering west to 30 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet late in the day.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 081802 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 102 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Light rain will move into the area tonight through Saturday with temperatures holding around 50 for most locations. Colder air arrives Sunday and some light lake effect snow is possible through Sunday night. Dry and tranquil weather is expected next week.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Strong SW flow continues today in advance of deep western CONUS trough ejecting east. 900mb winds will remain around 35-40 kts today with slightly better mixing than yesterday per latest forecast soundings. Highs will climb into the low/mid 50s today despite increasing low level clouds, particularly by late afternoon. There will also be decent potential for some higher gusts of 25-30 kts particularly during the late morning as nocturnal LLJ mixes out somewhat. Dry conditions will prevail through 00Z this evening.

Initial southern vort max ejects from the Central Plains to the northern Lakes tonight with weak surface reflection passing just to our northwest. Broad/gentle isentropic upglide will generate a few showers/drizzle in the warm sector for our area tonight but QPF amounts will be very limited with the best chances not arriving until around and just after 12Z as the associated cold front approaches. Even then precip amounts and coverage will be limited given residual midlevel dry air and poor mid/upper level forcing locally. Only minor changes to inherited forecast with likely PoP's and a few hundredths QPF through 00Z Sat evening.

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

As has been discussed, a deep, positively tilted trough then develops across the region with tightening baroclinic zone just to our SE Sat night into Sun. Our far SE counties will likely see some moderate precip Sat night as a weak surface reflection rides NE along the front. However, temps in that area at that time remain warm enough for just rain. CAA does increase on Sun but the front pushes east of our area by then. Our best chances for any snow remain with secondary shortwave rotating through the region late Sun with an added boost from relatively warm Lake MI. However, forecast soundings show inversion heights only around 5 kft with some dry air entrainment/stability issues given strong NW flow. Some lake effect snow showers are likely Sun into Sun night but accumulations will be very limited (less than an inch) given lackluster ingredients and surface temps in mid/upper 30s Sun afternoon. Flow backs quickly Sun night with any residual showers ending by early Mon morning. Any impacts to the Mon AM commute will likely be isolated and marginal.

Persistent ridging over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will maintain dry and tranquil conditions through much of next week. Temps initially near seasonal norms will slowly climb through the week.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Added wind shear at SBN given a report from a CRJ2 and low level jet in the vicinity. Ceiling conditions have improved for now in the warm sector with VFR low cloud ceilings at both sites. A cold front will move east with lowering conditions once again. The cold front should move across SBN late in the period. Little if any improvement is expected during this time.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043- 046.

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Northern Indiana, IN,