Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winnetka, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:00PM Sunday August 9, 2020 6:11 AM CDT (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:09PMMoonset 11:38AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 312 Am Cdt Sun Aug 9 2020
Today..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
LMZ740 Expires:202008091500;;163984 FZUS53 KLOT 090812 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 312 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-091500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winnetka, IL
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location: 42.11, -87.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 090810 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 310 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SHORT TERM. 310 AM CDT

Through Monday night .

A warm and humid day is in store across the area as dewpoints in the low to locally mid 70s combine with max temps in the upper 80s to around 90 to produce afternoon heat index values in the mid to upper 90s amidst SSW winds gusting to 25 mph.

Two active MCSs across the central CONUS should remain a non- factor with today's weather, with the large MCS over South Dakota on a northeastward trajectory along an upper ridge, and a smaller MCS near St. Louis being driven by its cold pool in a slow east to southeastward track. This supports a dry and mostly sunny to partly cloudy day under the upper ridge axis. However, mid-level clouds and possibly a hint of an MCV from a now-decayed MCS over western Kansas last evening will be a focus for potential redevelopment of convection this morning. In fact, isolated deep convection has developed across north-central Kansas over the past hour. Meanwhile, a fairly sizable undular boar is tracking southeast across south- central Nebraska and may assist in renewed development this morning. Like yesterday, the combination of decent capping, the presence the mid-level ridge nearly overhead, and generally weak flow above the boundary layer will create a hostile environment for a southeastward advance of convection across eastern Iowa and into northwest Illinois late this afternoon. With that said, it remains unclear if the coverage of convection will become sufficient to develop a substantial cold pool across central Iowa by this afternoon to accelerate convection southeastward toward northern Illinois. Even with the negatives toward maintaining convection into the area, rather steep lapse rates within an EML above a 750 hPa warm nose would become a factor in maintaining convection above a deep cold pool. Provided the more active solution pans out, a line of convection with strong gusty outflow winds would be expected early to mid- evening across at least northern portions of the CWA.

If convection fails to materialize or is impeded by the ridge and local capping this afternoon and evening, dry conditions can be expected across the area through at least the early overnight hours. Focus would then turn to potential upscale growth of convection ahead of a trough axis swinging across the northern Great Plains and its associated cold front later today. Reduced capping behind the departing ridge as well as a pronounced LLJ just northwest of the CWA would support potential MCS maintenance into the CWA from the northwest late tonight trough daybreak Monday. While occurring at a diurnally unfavorable time, strong gusty winds would be possible with any well-develop outflow/line.

The forecast continues to become more complicated Monday afternoon and evening due to the dependence of how far south any convection/cold pool travels tonight into Monday morning. Assuming one of the two scenarios above pans out, the effective cold front will likely settle over or just south of the CWA by Monday afternoon. With a highly unstable environment on the warm side of the boundary, chances of new thunderstorm development along and south of the boundary would be expected during the afternoon and evening, especially if any rogue MCV or ripple in the mid-level flow is present. The presence of the right entrance of an upper jet will also support increased chances of thunderstorms. While thunderstorm chances exist for the entire area, have focused the highest PoPs along and south of the Kankakee/Illinois Rivers Monday afternoon and evening, with most if not all of the convection likely clearing the southern CWA with the cold front by daybreak Tuesday. Steep mid- level lapse rates again support strong gusty winds with any storm, especially if an organized line develops. PWATs potentially in excess of 2" will result in very heavy rain with any thunderstorm, though any convection should be progressive enough to limit residence time of the heaviest rain for any given location.

Kluber

LONG TERM.

Tuesday through Saturday .

252 AM . Primary forecast concern is precip chances and timing.

High pressure will be building across the Great Lakes region Tuesday and this should keep any precip chances confined to the far southern cwa though its possible the entire area remains dry. Precip chances increase just a bit Wednesday . mainly across the the southern cwa again as a wave moves south of the area. In general . the models are considerably drier across the area through mid week though there remains uncertainty by late week and low chance pops seem reasonable for now. Temperatures will remain near normals with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. cms

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

1228 AM . Forecast concerns include .

Few/sct mvfr clouds early this morning. Gusty south/southwest winds later today. Chance of thunderstorms tonight/Monday morning.

Some patchy high mvfr clouds around 3kft have developed early this morning and guidance shows the potential for this cloud cover to continue through sunrise . possibly becoming more sct/bkn further west toward rfd. Confidence for prevailing cigs is low but will carry scattered mention overnight. A sct/bkn cu field is expected later this morning into this afternoon.

Some patchy/light fog is also possible early this morning in the usual/more rural locations. Looks like there could be a bit better chance for patchy/light fog Sunday night into Monday morning but still low chances.

South/southwest winds will generally remain under 10kts overnight and then increase during the mid/late morning with gusts into the 20kt range this afternoon. Winds will diminish again with sunset this evening and turn more southerly.

Dry weather is expected early this morning and for much of the daylight hours today. Thunderstorm chances remain quite uncertain but they do begin to increase some this evening into early Monday morning when activity to the northwest may be moving southeast into northern IL . likely in a weakening phase. If thunderstorms were to occur the best timing appears to be early Monday morning but given the continue uncertainty have maintained a dry forecast. cms

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45174 5 mi31 min S 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 73°F1 ft1017.3 hPa70°F
OKSI2 15 mi131 min W 2.9 G 6 76°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 16 mi41 min SSW 15 G 18 75°F 72°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 18 mi71 min SW 6 G 8.9 75°F
CNII2 19 mi26 min WSW 4.1 G 8.9 74°F 66°F
45187 26 mi31 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 72°F 70°F1 ft
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 28 mi53 min SSW 6 G 8.9 73°F 1017.7 hPa69°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 33 mi131 min SW 5.1 G 6 75°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.0)
45170 48 mi31 min Calm G 0 73°F 73°F1 ft73°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL8 mi19 minSSW 710.00 miFair74°F70°F88%1017.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi20 minSSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds74°F69°F85%1017.5 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL22 mi18 minSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds72°F68°F87%1017.2 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL23 mi16 minSW 119.00 miFair73°F69°F87%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S11S13S14SW9S13
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE3E5----E8SE7SE9E7E8SE8CalmE3CalmS3S5S6SE5SE4S4S4S4
2 days agoW3NW4NW4NW5N5NW5NE4E4NE8NE7NE7NE6E6NE4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.