Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winnetka, IL

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:50PM Saturday August 17, 2019 7:45 PM CDT (00:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 315 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft late.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
Monday..Northeast winds around 10 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201908180315;;792180 FZUS53 KLOT 172015 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-180315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winnetka, IL
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location: 42.11, -87.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 172350
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
650 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Short term
228 pm cdt
through Sunday...

several forecast challenges concerns this afternoon through Sunday
morning, initially with respect to any additional scattered
shower storm development this afternoon and then more widespread
shower and storm potential overnight into early Sunday morning.

In the near term, focus revolves around another incoming mid-level
wave across eastern iowa this afternoon, which is expected to
gradually shift eastward across northern il through the remainder of
the daylight hours. Despite the atmosphere being considerably worked
over this morning, a CU field is already evident across parts of
eastern ia and northwest il out ahead of the wave in an increasingly
unstable environment, along with some isolated to scattered radar
returns (no lightning as of yet). Given the anticipated arrival of
greater support aloft and some recovery across northeast
il northwest in, will continue the mention of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area this afternoon... Most likely
between 20z and 00z before support strips off to the east and a lull
in activity is expected to become the rule this evening. There
remains a non-zero chance through this afternoon for a stronger
storm or two, mainly capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps
some hail.

However, focus rather quickly shifts to the tonight into early
Sunday time frame as an active pattern is expected to remain in
place. Additional, potentially widespread, showers and storms appear
likely during this time frame as no real change to the overall
pattern and environment is anticipated, with highly active mid-
levels and strong warm air advection supported by a stout llj
expected to be in place across the region. Latest trends continue to
suggest a complex of thunderstorms developing across southern
mn iowa late this evening into the early overnight hours before
tracking eastward toward the CWA toward sunrise Sunday. While
confidence isn't stellar, feel the most likely timing for storms to
track through the region is somewhere between 09-14z, with most
guidance in agreement with this timing. The exception is recent hrrr
runs, which have significantly slowed shower storm chances to after
12z Sunday. There will remain a severe weather threat with these
storms, primarily in the form of strong damaging winds, and to a
lesser extent, large hail. Given lots of deep layer moisture (pwats
progged AOA 1.75 inches), heavy downpours with at least an isolated
flooding risk will also be a concern.

Beyond Sunday morning, would expect some drier conditions to return
for part of the day, although with lingering surface trough boundary
across the region, wouldn't be surprised to see an additional
isolated shower and or storm develop late in the day early evening.

High temperatures Sunday expected to range from the low-upper 80s
across the forecast area with afternoon heat indices near 90
degrees for many areas.

Gillen

Long term
226 pm cdt
Sunday evening through Saturday...

a surface trough will cross the area Sunday evening into Sunday
night. This will lead to lingering chances for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the evening, with the
threat decreasing from northwest to southeast into the overnight.

Surface high pressure will move in from the west Monday and depart
Tuesday. The high will bring modestly drier air with it and
somewhat cooler temps for Monday with highs in the lower 80s north
to mid 80s south. Winds shift southerly Tuesday bringing warmer
and more humid back into the area. An upper trough will cross the
area with a weak surface reflection accompanying it. Will need to
see what kind of thunderstorm chances will be present with this,
but guidance seems to be more focused on something tracking more
to the south of the area. Will keep chance pops going Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. A deeper upper low will move across
ontario Wednesday pushing cooler and drier air into the local area
as another surface high builds in, this time from the north.

Guidance is at odds with some of the details with the GFS favoring
slightly active upper flow which suggests subtle chances for
shower thunder development late this week. Will continue with a
dry forecast from Wednesday afternoon into the weekend but
continue to keep an eye on how the pattern evolves.

Mdb

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

650 pm... Forecast concerns include...

possible MVFR CIGS this evening.

Isolated showers thunderstorms this evening.

Thunderstorms Sunday morning.

Strong gusty southwest winds Sunday afternoon.

There is still a chance for an isolated thunderstorm this evening
with a cell near dbq to the west and another near beh to the east.

Not currently expecting anything more than isolated coverage so
have left out mention from the tafs except for vicinity shower
mention at rfd this evening. Focus then shifts to the predawn
hours Sunday morning when a broken line of thunderstorms is
expected to move across northwest il and then across the rest of
the terminals through mid morning Sunday. These storms will
likely have some gusty wind potential as well as possible ifr
cigs vis. Confidence is low for additional convection Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening. It appears any new thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon would be east or south of the terminals with
perhaps a better chance for thunder later Sunday evening.

There is still patchy MVFR CIGS across the area early this evening
and these are expected to move northeast and scatter within the
next few hours.

Wind will remain south southwest under 10kts this evening... Likely
shifting a bit more southwest ahead of the expected thunderstorms
Sunday morning. Wind directions behind the storms will be
dependent on how widespread the activity becomes but a
south southeast direction for a short time is likely before winds
shift to the southwest. Forecast soundings show quite a bit of
wind in the low levels through mid afternoon. The sooner clouds
clear and mixing begins the more likely gusts could be stronger
than currently indicated. Wind speeds gusts will diminish with
sunset Sunday evening. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45174 5 mi36 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 74°F1 ft1009.4 hPa
FSTI2 10 mi106 min SW 7 77°F
OKSI2 15 mi106 min SE 1 G 1.9 79°F
45177 16 mi106 min 75°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 16 mi26 min SSW 9.9 G 11 77°F 72°F
45186 18 mi26 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 74°F 74°F1 ft
CNII2 19 mi31 min SSW 5.1 G 9.9 77°F 67°F
JAKI2 24 mi106 min SW 4.1 G 8 78°F
45187 26 mi26 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 79°F 73°F1 ft
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 28 mi46 min S 4.1 G 8 77°F 1010.8 hPa (+0.0)71°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 33 mi46 min SSE 8 G 8 75°F 1010.8 hPa (-1.1)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 45 mi42 min SSW 7 G 9.9 78°F 1011.9 hPa
45170 48 mi146 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 75°F1 ft71°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL8 mi1.9 hrsSSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds78°F68°F71%1011.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi1.9 hrsSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F68°F74%1010.7 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL22 mi1.9 hrsS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F70°F76%1010.1 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL23 mi1.7 hrsVar 39.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F70°F84%1010.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W4SW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S12E6SE5SE6S6S5S7S6
1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SE8S7S10S12
G19
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W3
2 days agoN6N6N4N5NW6N5N7N5NW7NW5NW5NW7NW5N6N8N6NE7E7NE8E7NE8NE9NE6E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.