Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winnetka, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:59PM Monday January 27, 2020 9:37 PM CST (03:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:58AMMoonset 8:47PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 249 Pm Cst Mon Jan 27 2020
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest. Slight chance of snow in the evening. Chance of light freezing drizzle through the night. A chance of flurries after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Chance of light freezing drizzle and a chance of flurries. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of flurries. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of flurries. Waves 2 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:202001280400;;610438 FZUS53 KLOT 272049 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 249 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-280400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winnetka, IL
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location: 42.11, -87.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 280109 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 709 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

UPDATE. 709 PM CST

Scattered light radar returns have developed across a decent portion of the CWA over the past hour, likely in response to some weak ascent from a sheared 850 hPa wave shifting south from southeast WI and associated weak isentropic ascent on the 275K theta surface early this evening. ACARS soundings from ORD/MDW, PIREPs and METARs indicate cloud depths of 2-2.5kft, with bases roughly around 2500'. Meanwhile cloud top temps are around -8C. This environment supports the mix of light snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle reports we have received in the past hour under the more noticeable radar returns over Aurora and Lansing. A brief period of very fine mist was also observed at our office in Romeoville.

Given the less favorable high cloud bases and shallow cloud depths, any precip should remain light and patchy this evening before a better chance of icy conditions develops tonight as outlined in the short term discussion and current Special Weather Statement.

Kluber

SHORT TERM. 149 PM CST

Through Tuesday night .

Forecast concerns center around identifying periods of potential impact from freezing drizzle along with lake enhanced snow showers.

A blanket of low clouds exists across much of the northern half of the country from the upper Great Lakes down to the Ohio River valley. Therefore expect these cool and cloudy conditions to persist for several days. Temperatures in the cloud layer are for the most part below the -10C level where ice nucleation probabilities increase enough to suggest better chances of snow mixed with the supercooled liquid level, but scientifically probabilities for snow do still exist below -10C they are just lower. And observations across the region support both precip types with both drizzle/snow being observed from time to time. Some of this is lake enhancement. This lake enhancement should become more focused across northwest IN as the low level turns more NW. Identifying periods of increased chances for freezing drizzle therefore becomes the main forecast challenge.

Our main forcing mechanisms will be the subtle waves in WNW flow through tomorrow. After the first sheared zone across southern WI/northern IL (which is less impressive than it was before) moves through there is a bit more organized wave across northwest WI (with subtle features embedded in the flow). It looks like we may have a relative minimum per much drier low level water vapor features and elevated cloud bases across central WI. Hi resolution for impacts from freezing drizzle still show signal tied to this next wave combined with subtle low level isentropic lift. The signal is still not high enough to imply more than a continued patchy nature to the precipitation, but the overnight into early morning period is usually more of a concern for at least localized impacts to non treated areas, including sidewalks and driveways, possibly favored northwest of the Chicago metro where surface temps are a touch cooler. We have not made to many changes to the going forecast given the Detroit probabilities have shown a slight downward trend, though these subtle signals may fluctuate.

Regarding lake effect snow showers, with the marginal temperatures profiles, equilibrium levels only about 4-5Kft, and weak low level Lake induced CAPE, expect accumulations would also be limited this afternoon and again later tonight into early Tuesday.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure is suggested again briefly later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, but we will await the approach of a Pacific origin trough later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

KMD

LONG TERM.

Wednesday through Monday .

112 PM . Cloudy conditions look to persist for the middle to end of the week with another weak wave moving across the region on Wednesday that may bring some light snow or flurries. Low level winds turn easterly on Wednesday which may also allow for some flurries and added a chance of flurries to the forecast for this time period. Another weak wave is possible Thursday night into Friday with a chance of light snow. And depending on how deep the cold layer is with these waves . some patchy freezing drizzle is also possible. A bit stronger wave appears to move across the region Friday night into Saturday which may have the best chance to produce some minor snow accumulations though there are still some placement/timing differences. Models then show a warmup Sunday into Monday with highs well into the 40s by Monday and if dewpoints materialize as currently shown . these temps could be low. But cloud cover would be a concern and potential limiting factor for highs. cms

AVIATION. For the 00Z TAFs .

Main aviation weather interests for this forecast cycle are: /1/ Prevailing MVFR cigs through the next 24-30 hours.

/2/ Potential for -FZDZ or -FZDZSN late this evening into early Tuesday morning.

/3/ Light northeast wind shift and another potential for light snow and/or freezing drizzle Tuesday night.

Cigs early this evening have pretty uniformly lifted to high-MVFR, above 2 kft, and anticipate that this will remain the case through the rest of the evening hours based on upstream observations. While there are some very spotty radar returns showing up, it looks like the sub-cloud layer will stay just dry enough to preclude any precipitation until later.

The main features we're monitoring are a series of disturbances dropping south through northern Wisconsin at this time, and should be pushing into northern Illinois later tonight. As this occurs, some light precipitation could get squeezed out from the slowly deepening (and lowering) cloud layer. The better low-level saturation looks to remain mostly south and west of the immediate Chicago- area terminals. As a result, have moved the precip mention into TEMPO groups during the most-likely time periods based on latest model guidance. It looks like cloud top temperatures may remain near -9 or -10 degrees C, which may be just cold enough to keep some cloud ice present. Will indicate -FZDZSN in the TEMPO groups as opposed to -FZDZ as a result. Will monitor upstream observations and model trends closely this evening, and update as necessary.

Once this disturbance moves through, clouds may lift back above about 2 kft on Tuesday afternoon. During the ORD/MDW extended TAFs, have indicated a light north-northeast wind shift. There is some potential for an additional batch of light snow and/or freezing drizzle to push off the lake, but this is just beyond the current TAF window.

Carlaw

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 16 mi38 min NW 7 G 7 34°F 32°F
CNII2 19 mi23 min W 7 G 8.9 34°F 27°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 28 mi50 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 33°F 1017.1 hPa30°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 33 mi38 min NW 5.1 G 8 33°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL8 mi46 minNW 49.00 miOvercast34°F28°F79%1018.6 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi47 minNW 68.00 miOvercast32°F28°F88%1018.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL22 mi45 minNW 59.00 miLight Snow34°F28°F82%1019 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL23 mi43 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast33°F26°F75%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W5W6W5W5NW4NW5NW6NW7NW6NW6NW6NW4NW5NW6NW6NW5N4NW5NW5NW5NW5NW5NW4
1 day agoW7W6W7W7W8W8W6W5W5W5W8W7W8W8W10W8W7W5W7W8W6W8W6W5
2 days agoCalmS3S3--CalmSW3W34W4W5W4W4W5W6W7W7W9W5W9W6W6W8W5W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.