Wednesday, July8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Williams, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:53PM Wednesday July 8, 2020 12:37 AM PDT (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:34PMMoonset 8:15AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 809 Pm Pdt Tue Jul 7 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..N wind 20 to 25 kt except nw 10 to 20 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Wed..N wind 20 kt...backing to nw 30 kt in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 10 to 20 kt...rising to 25 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Wed night..NW wind 30 kt...easing to 20 to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. Mixed swell nw 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..NW wind 10 to 20 kt except nw 5 to 10 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 ft and S 1 ft.
Thu night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 ft and S 1 ft.
Fri..N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft in the afternoon. NW swell 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 3 ft.
Sat..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft... Becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 ft.
Sun..N wind 10 kt...rising to 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
PZZ300 809 Pm Pdt Tue Jul 7 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Wind and seas will increase into Wednesday evening as a thermal trough builds in along the coast. Steep seas south of nesika beach are expected to persist through Wednesday night. As the thermal trough moves inland, conditions will improve late Wednesday night into Thursday night. Light to moderate winds and seas are then likely through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williams, OR
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location: 42.12, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 080544 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1044 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Updated AVIATION Section

DISCUSSION. An upper trough is shifting east of the area this evening and a weak shortwave ridge will build over the area tomorrow. This will bring a slight warming trend during the day tomorrow with high temperatures warming 4 to 6 degrees above todays highs. Of note, temperatures will start out cool tomorrow with low temperatures in the morning similar to today's for areas west of the Cascades and only a few degrees warmer across areas east of the Cascades. Also areas along the coast north of Cape Blanco and into Douglas County are expected to see low clouds again tonight and Wednesday morning. Low clouds may also develop in the Illinois, Applegate and portions of the Rogue Valley late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Expect skies to clear by early afternoon tomorrow.

Another shortwave trough moves into the Pacific Northwest coast Wednesday night and Thursday morning, moving inland during the day. With this shortwave, expect a weak front to move inland. The main effect from this front will be to bring some gusty winds to inland areas, especially from the Cascades east and into the Shasta Valley in Siskiyou and the Rogue Valley in Jackson County late Thursday afternoon and evening. Gusts may be in the 25 to 35 mph range for these areas late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. Little or no precipitation is expected with the front. Although models do show a slight chance for showers in the Cascades north of the CWA Thursday evening. Over the coastal waters, along the coast, and into the Umpqua expect a marine push with low clouds Thursday morning.

AVIATION. For the 08/06Z TAF Cycle . VFR prevails south of the Umpqua Divide and east of the Cascades. These areas can expect to remain VFR through Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, a deep marine layer will bring MVFR, local IFR and terrain obscuration back to the coast, coastal waters and much of the Umpqua Basin north of the Umpqua Divide overnight. These lower ceilings will be faster to clear during Wednesday morning and should become VFR 17-18Z. IFR/MVFR ceilings should return to coastal areas and the Umpqua Valley Wednesday evening/night. -Spilde

MARINE. Updated 815 PM PDT Tuesday, 7 July 2020 . Wind and seas will increase into Wednesday evening as a thermal trough builds in along the coast. Steep seas south of Nesika Beach are expected to persist through Wednesday night. As the thermal trough moves inland, conditions will improve late Wednesday night into Thursday night. Light to moderate winds and seas are likely through Saturday. -DW/Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 444 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020/

DISCUSSION . Satellite imagery this afternoon shows some lingering cumulus where the marine layer had pushed from early this morning. The exception to this is at the coast where clear skies are predominant. Otherwise, clear to mostly clear skies are being observed elsewhere. This is indicative of our overall benign weather pattern. A weak thermal trough is expected to form tonight and continue tomorrow, but temperatures are not expected to become excessively hot for this time of year. Chances are, tonight will see the marine push in as far as it did last night with clouds blanketing a good part of the West Side of Oregon (but not California).

The main forecasting question was whether or not tonight's temperatures will become cold enough for frost/freeze concerns on the east side. Lakeview and Klamath Falls got to those levels last night, but the general pattern indicates that tonight should be a bit warmer. Have lowered the forecast low temperatures for tonight--lower than what guidance has shown, but temperatures still should remain above 36 degrees. Of course, the exceptions for this are our traditionally cold spots like Sprague River, the Christmas Valley, Chemult and Crescent; but these places should always be on guard for cold summer temperatures.

Temperatures will continue to warm up each day this week as an area of high pressure builds in this weekend. This means that winds will be generally light, although they could be breezy on Thursday and again this weekend. The highest temperatures look to be in the low 90s, and that is for Friday and Saturday.

Additionally, moisture is much less than yesterday with PWATs less than a quarter of an inch. Therefore, the isolated thunderstorms which occurred in Siskiyou and Lake Counties should not occur again today or again for most of the week, despite weak instances of instability being present in the forecast.

Another system moves across the northern half of the Pacific Northwest. This likely will not bring much in terms of precipitation for our area, but it will work to lower temperatures toward normal once again. Still we remain in an overly benign weather pattern. -Schaaf

FIRE WEATHER . Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, 7 July 2020 . Dry weather is likely to continue for at least the next 7-10 days over the region. The only time period of concern during this time is Thursday and maybe Saturday. Details on these concerns will follow below.

Gusty winds are expected Thursday afternoon and evening along and east of the Cascades, this will include fire zones 624, 625 and 285. The combination of wind and minimum relative humidity on Thursday is not expected to be enough to warrant a fire weather watch at this point, so we will headline because of the high fire danger in these areas.

The driving factor for the winds on Thursday is due to a combination of a tightening pressure gradient and stronger winds aloft. The general consensus shows 700 mb winds between 15 and 20 knots. However looking further upstairs (600mb) the winds are stronger (between 30-40 kts), so if winds from this level mix down, could lead to stronger winds at the surface.

On Saturday, the driving force for winds will be similar to Thursday. The only difference is winds aloft are not expected to be as strong. Even though winds aloft are not as strong, relative humidity is expected to be lower then Thursday and it could be on the borderline of reaching critical concerns (Fire weather watch or Red Flag Warning). The good news is it's still a ways out which will give us time to monitor

Winds will also be gusty in the Rogue and Applegate Valleys south and eastward to the Mount Shasta highlands, most notably over Siskiyou Summit into the northern end of the Shasta Valley. Thursday afternoon and evening.

In the meantime, no concerns are expected this evening through Wednesday with pretty good recoveries expected to most, if not all locations tonight. Onshore flow will continue allowing marine stratus to return for most of the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco Coquille and Umpqua Basin. Unlike today, the Rogue and Illinois Valley should remain clear.

Temperatures will warm up Wednesday through Saturday. Even then were only expecting them to be around 3-5 degrees above average for inland locations. Slight cooling is expected Sunday as a dry cold front moves through, then warming back up next week.

The general consensus among the ensembles, individual ensemble members and cluster analysis all point to the same conclusion. A general troughiness remaining over the PAC NW. There will be times where the four corners ridge will try and nudge its way towards our area, but not enough to where it would bring significant heating for next week and a low or almost zero chance of precipitation and thunderstorms. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

CC/MAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 51 mi49 min N 7 G 9.9 48°F1017.9 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 58 mi167 min NNW 21 G 25 1018.4 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 74 mi49 min N 9.9 G 16 47°F1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR31 mi44 minN 310.00 miFair64°F46°F52%1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4N4N4CalmN4CalmNE4NW3CalmNW3335CalmW7NW86N8
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1 day agoCalmNW4N4CalmCalmNE4NE3N5W4NW65W6NW9NW11W14
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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:49 AM PDT     6.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM PDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:19 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:39 PM PDT     5.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:58 PM PDT     2.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:37 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.96.76.96.45.33.720.5-0.5-0.8-0.40.72.23.855.75.85.44.63.83.12.93.13.9

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:48 AM PDT     6.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:50 AM PDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:19 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:38 PM PDT     5.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:54 PM PDT     2.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.96.76.96.45.33.71.90.4-0.6-0.8-0.30.82.33.855.75.85.44.63.73.12.93.23.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.