Carpentersville, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carpentersville, IL

June 16, 2024 7:31 PM CDT (00:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM
Moonrise 3:21 PM   Moonset 1:51 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 151 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 16 2024

Tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.

Monday - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Monday night - South winds 15 to 20 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ700
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpentersville, IL
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 162351 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 651 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms will sweep across northern Illinois this afternoon and evening, mainly along and north of I-80.

- Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the main threats. Flash flooding may occur if thunderstorms regenerate this evening over the Chicago metropolitan area.

- Hot and muggy conditions will prevail through the end of the week. Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue, though many hours will remain dry.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Through Tonight:

An impressively organized mesoscale convective vortex anchored by a semi-circular outer-core of convection is currently lifting from northeastern Missouri and into southeastern Iowa. Low- level moisture continues to increase ahead of the MCV, with dew points in the lower 70s now spreading toward the I-39 corridor and Wisconsin state line. Mostly sunny skies have allowed for highs to build into the upper 80s to around 90, which when combined with the steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing low- level moisture, is contributing to some 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE.

As broad southwesterly steering flow continues guiding the MCV northeastward into the destabilizing airmass, coverage of ongoing thunderstorms near the MCV will increase with perhaps a rapid uptick near or west of I-39 sometime in the 2 to 4 pm timeframe. Thereafter, convection will sweep across northern Illinois, primarily along and north of I-80. Locally augmented flow on the eastern side of the circulation (KDVN radar is sampling some 50+kt of flow at 12kft) will provide a mesoscale kinematic environment for the development of supercells and bowing structures as convection matures across northern Illinois this afternoon, with a threat for "upscale growth" into a compact MCS as it crosses northern Illinois this afternoon and evening. For this reason, the threat for a swath of damaging winds (60 to 75 mph) and even brief tornadoes continues to increase, focused near and north of I-80. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Level 2/5 threat level for severe weather this afternoon, mainly along and north of I-80.

Given the highly organized structure of the MCV, we remain concerned for regenerating convection along the backside of the circulation across northeastern Illinois after sunset. Such a threat will come down to mesoscale details of whether a focused zone of low-level confluence will develop at the intersection of the western side of the cyclonic circulation and any continued southwesterly low-level synoptic flow. Forecast confidence in such a band of regenerating convection remains low, though it's something we can't rule out. If radar and satellite trends begin to hint at a mesoscale band of regenerating convection materializing, we will consider issuing a short-fused Flash Flood Watch for part of our area (likely just a few counties).

Borchardt

Monday through Sunday:

The main forecast focus for the week continues to be the hot and humid conditions expected to impact the Great Lakes through much of the week. The main driver for the heat will be a broad upper ridge that will stall across the Mid-Atlantic which will generate stout south-southwesterly flow over the area. This flow will keep dew points in the mid to upper 60s to around 70 which in combination with high temperatures likely to hover in the low to mid 90s, will generate heat indices in the 95 to 105 degree range at times. The warmest days this week continue to look like Monday and possibly Thursday depending on how quickly the ridge breaks down. Though, the latest guidance has started to show that dew points may mix down a couple of degrees Monday afternoon which may help keep heat indices a bit lower as well.
Additionally, the high dew points will also aid in keeping overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s through at least the middle of the week which means little relief even after sunset.
Therefore, despite the aforementioned heat indices expected to remain below our Heat Advisory criteria; we encourage anyone with outdoor plans to practice heat safety by taking breaks from the heat and staying hydrated.

Aside from the heat, there is also the potential for periodic showers and thunderstorms through the week as well. However, the confidence on coverage of showers and storms through Tuesday remain low. The reason is because the ridge will create mid- level height rises which should generate subsidence and work to counteract the robust instability forecast to be in place. Given the uncertainty on which parameter will win out, have decided to maintain the 20% POPs for both Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

Heading into Wednesday and the later half of the week the upper- level pattern is forecast to become more zonal as the ridge gets squashed by a trough ejecting across the upper Midwest. As this occurs, a frontal boundary is forecast to develop over the upper Mississippi Valley and gradually drift southeast into Wisconsin towards weeks end. However, exactly when and/or if this boundary will actually get shoved through northern IL remains very uncertain as guidance continues to struggle as to when the ridge will actually break down.
Therefore, have made no changes to the advertised NBM forecast which from Wednesday onward which offered 20 to 40 percent POPs, highest across northwest IL near the aforementioned front.
Furthermore, high temperatures are currently forecast to remain in the 90s through weeks end but these values could wind up cooler if the front moves through sooner than advertised so stay tuned.

Yack

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A decaying mid-level wave over northeast Illinois will continue to produce SHRA for another hour or so. VFR conditions are then expected through the period. While a widely isolated TS cannot be ruled across northern IL and northwest IN Monday afternoon, confidence in occurrence and any potential coverage is far too low to include in the TAF.

SW gusts to 20 knots early this evening will become S/SSW around 10 knots mid-evening into Monday morning. Winds will then veer SW and increase to gusts around 25 knots Monday afternoon into the evening.

Kluber

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT Monday night for ILZ005- ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105- ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.

IN...Air Quality Alert until 1 AM EDT Monday for INZ019.

LM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45186 31 mi21 minSSE 12G18 77°F 62°F1 ft
45174 34 mi31 minSSW 9.7G16 75°F 64°F2 ft29.7962°F
45187 37 mi21 minSW 14G21 74°F 54°F1 ft
OKSI2 38 mi91 minNW 1.9G7 85°F
CNII2 40 mi16 minW 6G17 83°F 60°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 41 mi31 minW 19G21 87°F 69°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 41 mi31 minWSW 8G11 80°F 29.83
45198 42 mi31 minSW 5.8G7.8 77°F 65°F1 ft29.84
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 48 mi43 minWSW 5.1G12 29.83


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDPA DUPAGE,IL 15 sm39 minW 0810 smMostly Cloudy75°F66°F74%29.85
KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL 21 sm39 minWSW 11G2110 smPartly Cloudy81°F63°F54%29.85
KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL 23 sm40 minWSW 09G2010 smMostly Cloudy Lt Rain 79°F64°F61%29.84
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Wind History graph: DPA
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Chicago, IL,




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