Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fleischmanns, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:26PM Monday December 9, 2019 7:37 PM EST (00:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 5:18AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fleischmanns, NY
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location: 42.13, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 100010 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 710 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Milder, rainy and foggy night in the forecast as a storm system tracks across the Saint Lawrence Valley. This will be followed by a cold front during Tuesday and any rainfall will mix with and change to snow. A wave of low pressure is forecast to develop and bring some light snow south of Albany late Tuesday into Tuesday night before clearing occurs across most of the region. Exception will be downwind of Lake Ontario where lake effect snow may bring some accumulations to portions of the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 700 PM EST . Winds have started to mix across portions of the area, with some gusts of 25-40+ mph in spots. This has resulted in a decrease in the coverage of dense fog. However, there are still observations sites indicating 1/2 mile visibility or less, so will opt to hold on to the Dense Fog Advisory for now and re-assess with the next update later this evening. Issued a Special Weather Statement for occasional wind gusts exceeding 40 mph in parts of the Taconics, Berkshires and southern Green Mountains. Otherwise, temperatures are mild ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region. Rain still falling across much of the area, although radar showing the typical shadowing in the Capital District with a strong SW flow aloft resulting in only drizzle locally.

Periods of rainfall will continue to move across the region this evening as nose of increasing H250 jet, greater than 150kts, will cause additional ascent with respect to exit region dynamics. Meanwhile, low level jet magnitudes/anomalies will also be on the increase with values of 1-3 standard deviations above normal so periods of rainfall will continue. Furthermore, combination of temperatures and dewpoints above freezing across a cold/snow surface is resulting in areas of dense fog which has been addresses with a Dense Fog Advisory through the evening hours. As the surface wave tracks northeast of the St Lawrence Valley, the upper jet also transverse northward which leaves a slower movement of the frontal passage toward sunrise. With a mainly warm advection regime overnight, not much change in temperatures are expected.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Cold front will slowly progress across the region during the daylight hours Tuesday as the surface features will become nearly parallel to the upper flow. Cold advection will allow a changeover to mainly snow from northwest to southeast. However, best moisture profiles are just to the southeast of Albany yet the secondary wave appears to be weaker than previous runs. The weaker solutions offer a lowering of the QPF and potential snow accumulations at this time. The best potential would be along the I84 corridor but forecast values appear less than advisory level criteria at this time. Cold advection becomes more apparent overnight Tuesday as the upper trough approaches aiding in the advanced movement of the cold front and advection.

Another surge of colder air arrives late Wednesday into Wednesday night as attention shifts toward lake effect snow developing downwind of Lake Ontario. Inversion layers favor bands making their way inland into portions of the western Dacks initially before boundary layer winds back to the northwest taking the band(s) southward toward the Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley. Difficult to see accumulations at this point as inversion layers lower through the night as 1035+Mb high builds in from the Ohio Valley.

Temperatures through the period will be rather closer to MOS as a general consensus was followed (non-diurnal through tonight, then a colder trends within the cold advection remainder of the period).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Below normal temperatures will dominate the beginning of the long term forecast, followed by some moderation in temps, along with the next prospects for significant precipitation associated with a possible storm system by next weekend.

Some lingering extensions of Lake Effect/enhanced snow showers may persist through Thursday morning across portions of the extreme western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills, with areal coverage likely decreasing in the afternoon as a subsidence inversion lowers with high pressure building closer. Otherwise, quite blustery with highs Thursday mainly in the teens and 20s, although could approach the lower 30s in the mid Hudson Valley.

High pressure should bring fair but cold conditions for Thursday night into Friday, with lows Thursday night dropping into the single digits and teens, with some potential for pockets of temps dipping below zero across the southern Adirondacks, depending on cloud cover and wind. Highs Friday upper 20s to mid/upper 30s.

Strong model consensus for a fairly quick-moving moderate to heavy QPF event Friday night into Saturday, with latest 12Z/09 GEFs suggesting 70-80+ percent probabilities of 1 inch or more QPF over a 24 hour period from late Friday night through Saturday night, with even some small chances of 2"/36 hours across southeast areas. The system originates over the Gulf of Mexico, so makes sense that an abundance of moisture will be available. Thermal profiles suggest warming aloft, while boundary layer remains cold. So, potential for mixed precip, especially freezing rain, exists, especially for precipitation onset late Friday night into Saturday morning. Precipitation should change to plain rain in most areas by Saturday afternoon, although will have to watch as cooling aloft could allow rain to mix with/change back to snow in some northwest areas late Saturday or Saturday night.

Lows Friday night in the mid 20s to lower 30s, although temps may rise late at night. Highs Saturday reaching the mid/upper 30s northern areas, and lower/mid 40s southeast. Temps Saturday night remaining elevated, generally in the 30s.

Lingering rain/snow showers for Sunday as the upper level trough from the west passes through, along with some Lake enhancement. Some accumulating snow is possible across portions of the southwest Adirondacks. Rain/snow showers should decrease in areal coverage later Sunday night into Monday. Lows Sun nt in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs Monday ranging from the mid/upper 20s higher terrain areas, to the mid/upper 30s in lower elevations.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Challenging aviation forecast over the next 6-12 hours, with a moist south-southwest flow in place over a snowpack. Where wind is near calm, IFR conditions are occurring due to fog (KGFL/KPOU). However winds have started mixing at KALB/KPSF, resulting in improving visibility. IFR cigs still in place at KALB, while KPSF has improved to MVFR. Fluctuations in conditions will continue to occur this evening into the overnight hours, with both MVFR and IFR expected at most of the terminals. Rain will decrease in coverage after 06Z tonight, with mainly scattered showers into the morning.

Conditions will improve to MVFR/VFR as a cold front crosses the region Tuesday afternoon. Showers will still be likely at KPOU/KPSF Tuesday afternoon, as a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front.

Low-level wind shear will continue at most of the TAF sites through tonight, as a southwest low level jet of 40-50 kt moves overhead. The main exception will be at KALB, where surface winds around 10-15 kt will remain persistent. Low level wind shear will dissipate Tuesday morning as the strongest winds aloft move east of the region.

Winds will be highly variable at the TAF sites, ranging from light and variable to southerly around 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt. Best chances for more persistent winds will be at KALB/KPSF through tonight. Winds will shift to west behind the cold front Tuesday afternoon and will become more uniform across the region.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. SHSN . SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of RA. SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of RA. SN.

HYDROLOGY. The combination of melting snow due to the warming temperatures and the rainfall will lead to significant rises on most rivers and streams. Although it may take a little while to warm the snowpack and for it to ripen, some runoff due to snowmelt is expected. Ensemble guidance suggests a few rivers (such as the Hoosic and Walloomsac) could reach minor flood stage by Tuesday. RFC forecasts suggests BNTV1 and EAGN6 will exceed flood stage as several other points across the Dacks and western New England may approach flood stage between 09-12Z/Tuesday.

As temperatures cool off, runoff should slow down for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some additional precipitation in the form of snow is expected for southern areas, but this will not have any immediate impact on rivers and streams. Another storm may bring more moderate to significant rain to the region for the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-013. NY . Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ038>043- 047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA . Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025. VT . Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ013>015.

SYNOPSIS . BGM NEAR TERM . BGM/JPV SHORT TERM . BGM LONG TERM . KL AVIATION . JPV HYDROLOGY . Frugis/BGM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 35 mi146 min S 5.1 G 7 34°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 36 mi68 min E 1 40°F 1007 hPa39°F
NPXN6 40 mi68 min SSE 6 38°F 1010 hPa38°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 97 mi38 min S 7.8 G 9.7 50°F 32°F50°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 97 mi53 min S 3.9 G 7.8 50°F 49°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monticello, Sullivan County International Airport, NY31 mi42 minSSW 8 G 1410.00 miLight Rain44°F43°F96%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSV

Wind History from MSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmSE4N3E3CalmE5E5NE5E4E4NE3E3CalmSE4NE3SE4SE7S8S10S8S5S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
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Mon -- 04:15 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:21 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:22 AM EST     3.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:02 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:47 PM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.51.710.50.20.312.12.93.53.83.83.32.51.710.40.20.51.32.22.83.3

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:15 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:50 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:52 AM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:32 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.53.12.31.40.80.30.10.61.72.73.43.94.13.83.12.21.40.70.30.30.91.92.73.3

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.