Saturday, August8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fleischmanns, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:07PM Saturday August 8, 2020 5:40 AM EDT (09:40 UTC) Moonrise 10:53PMMoonset 10:44AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fleischmanns, NY
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location: 42.13, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 080824 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 424 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. An upper level disturbance will move across the region today with an isolated shower or thunderstorm with seasonable temperatures. High pressure builds back in tonight into Sunday with dry weather and temperatures rising back above normal. The heat and humidity increases for Monday into the mid week, as high pressure moves off the New England Coast and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms increase ahead of a slow moving cold front.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 424 AM EDT . A short-wave trough will move across the region this morning. Some isolated to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms have popped up across the Capital Region/Lake George Region into the north-central Taconics. The best lightning activity is over e-cntrl VT and the Capital Region. Instability looks limited and elevated /MUCAPEs 500-1000 J/kg per the SPC mesoanalysis/ so we phrased it as showers with isolated thunderstorms this morning. Some patchy fog is also possible, but should burn off shortly after sunrise. Some locally heavy downpours are possible this morning.

The skies will become partly to mostly cloudy, and there is a risk for isolated/scattered showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon, as the mid and upper level trough axis moves downstream over New England and northwest flow sets up aloft. The latest 00Z HREFs has mean SBCAPEs of 250-750 J/kg with weak 0-6 km shear of 15-20 kts. Some loosely organized or pulse type thunderstorms may be possible.

The isolated shower/thunderstorms will tied to the diurnal heating and likely will set up due to differential heating between the mtns/valleys. It does not look like a washout, and coverage looks very limited on the CAMS. PWATs will be in the 1-1.4" range which are near or slightly above normal for early AUG. A locally heavy downpour is possible.

Max temps should be near normal with 850 hPa temps in the +13C to +15C range. Highs temps will range from the upper 60s to upper 70s over the mtns, and upper 70s to lower 80s in the valley areas with partly sunny conditions. Sfc dewpts will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, so humidity levels will not be oppressive.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Tonight . The 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC all show some mid and upper level height rises over eastern NY and western New England with a 1020 hPa sfc high building in. Any diurnally driven convection should dissipate in the late pm/early pm, as the skies will become mostly clear/partly cloudy and some radiational cooling is possible with light to calm winds. Patchy fog formation is likely especially along and near the major river valley. Lows in the mid 50s to around 60F are likely over the higher terrain and lower to mid 60s in the valleys.

Sunday . High pressure continues to still be in control at the sfc and aloft. The sfc anticyclone begins to drift off the southern New England Coast late in the day. Model soundings show a low to mid level cap which should limit convective development. We maintained a dry forecast with subsidence from the ridge dominating. Some weak warm advection occurs with H850 temps increasing to +15C to +17C. Max temps should be a few degrees warmer than SAT. Max temps will be in the mid and upper 80s in the lower elevations, and mid 70s to lower 80s over the hills and mtns. Humidity levels will continue to creep up.

Sunday night into Monday . A short-wave trough passing north of the region over northern NY and New England may kick off a few showers or thunderstorms over the southern Adirondacks into the Lake George Region. It will become warmer and more humid/sticky with variable cloudiness. Lows will range form the upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain, and mid and upper 60s over the valleys. A hotter air mass continues to ridge in from the south and west. H850 temps increase to +1 to +2 STDEVS above normal based on the latest 00Z GEFS. The actual H850 temps rise to +17C to +18C. Sfc dewpts increase into the 60s to around 70F in a few spots in the mid Hudson Valley. The combination of the high air temps /upper 80s to lower 90s/ and dewpts will allow apparent temps or heat indices to rise into the mid 90s in the mid Hudson Valley. We may need a Heat Advisory for the mid Hudson Valley. Max temps will get into the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valley areas, and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns. Some terrain/differential heating diurnally timed pop-up showers/thunderstorms are possible outside the Hudson River Valley and NW CT are possible. We kept an isolated threat in.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Tuesday looks to be the peak day of the upcoming heat, as mixed layer winds are forecast to shift to the southwest and 850 mb positive temperature anomalies are forecast to be greatest. Downsloping off the Catskills/Helderbergs in the SW flow should result in the warmest temps occurring in the Hudson Valley, especially from the Capital District southward. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s, maximum heat index values should be in the mid/upper 90s in the Hudson Valley. Will continue to mention a Heat Advisory may be needed in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Values may even be approach 95 in the Mohawk Valley, so will monitor trends. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon to early evening, as a weak disturbance and surface trough move across the region. Best chances look to be west of the Hudson Valley.

While slightly cooler compared to Tuesday, it will still be very warm and humid on Wednesday as our region will still be under the influence of upper level ridging extending NW from the western Atlantic. The main focus for convection will be a slow-moving front that may become quasi-stationary somewhere across or our area. So will continue to mention a chance of showers/storms, mainly during the afternoon to early evening hours.

No discernible change in air mass expected for Thursday and Friday, with the 00Z guidance indicating the aforementioned front to shift slightly southward, but remaining nearly stationary. Will limit chance pops to the southern half of the area each day (from the Mohawk valley/Capital District/southern VT southward), with only slight chance to the north. Again, the most favorable times for convection will be tied to the diurnal heating cycle. Temps expected to remain above normal, with humid conditions persisting as well.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An upper level disturbance will move eastward across the region this morning, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers. Will mention VCSH at TAF sites. Plenty of mid level clouds in place as of 06Z, so not expected much fog development. Will mention some light fog (BR) with possible MVFR vsby, but IFR is not anticipated at this time. Guidance showing possible lower stratus clouds developing by early morning, however observations around the region do not show any nearby. So will mention lowering cigs, but remaining at VFR levels.

Mid level clouds should linger into the early afternoon, then scouring out as subsidence develops in wake of the departing disturbance. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out into the afternoon, but probability too low to mention in the TAFs.

Winds will be light and variable, then becoming southerly around 5 kt by this afternoon.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA.

FIRE WEATHER. An upper level disturbance will move across the region today with an isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm with seasonable temperatures. High pressure builds back in tonight into Sunday with dry weather and temperatures rising back above normal. The heat and humidity increases for Monday into the mid week.

The RH values will lower to 50 to 65 percent this afternoon, and then increase to 90 to 100 percent with areas of dew and patchy fog formation Sunday morning. The RH values will lower to 40 to 50 percent Sunday afternoon.

The winds will be light and variable in direction at 10 mph or less today. They will become light to calm tonight, and then increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday.

HYDROLOGY. No widespread hydrological problems on expected in the ALY Hydro Service Area /HSA/ the next several days through the end of next week.

Forecast rainfall across the HSA the next 7 days ranges from around a quarter inch to around an inch or so. Rainfall will be variable during this period due to isolated to scattered thunderstorms, but the highest amounts look to be in the eastern Catskills. Localized ponding of water or poor drainage flooding is possible where thunderstorms produce locally heavy downpours. No river flooding is forecast.

The most widespread threat of showers and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday with a slow moving cold frontal passage.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Wasula NEAR TERM . Wasula SHORT TERM . Wasula LONG TERM . JPV AVIATION . JPV FIRE WEATHER . Wasula HYDROLOGY . SND/Wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 35 mi53 min Calm G 0 67°F 80°F1021 hPa66°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 36 mi71 min Calm 67°F 1020 hPa66°F
NPXN6 40 mi71 min NE 2.9 67°F 1022 hPa66°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 97 mi56 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 71°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 97 mi56 min ENE 5.8 G 9.7 72°F 67°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monticello, Sullivan County International Airport, NY31 mi45 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist61°F61°F100%1022.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSV

Wind History from MSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3N6E7E8E11E6E6SE8SE4SE6E5CalmNE3E4E4E3N5CalmCalmCalmNE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE44CalmSE6SW5S8S5SE3CalmCalmCalmNE3E4NE3E3E3Calm
2 days agoCalmW3W5W5W7W7
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Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
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Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:48 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:57 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.42.43.13.63.93.83.42.51.60.90.50.40.81.72.63.23.63.73.52.92.11.41

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:18 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:27 PM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.1233.644.13.93.22.21.30.70.40.51.32.33.13.63.93.93.42.61.81.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.