Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fleischmanns, NY

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon for a few storms that could become severe.
Primary hazards are strong winds and heavy downpours.

2) Heat and humidity build back in for eastern New York and western New England tomorrow into Friday for minor heat-related impacts.
After a return to seasonal temperatures for this weekend, another warming trend begins next week with minor to moderate heat- related impacts.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Based on latest forecast trends, scattered rain showers return tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning across eastern New York and western New England. A few thunderstorms could develop ahead of an approaching cold front where some could become severe with damaging winds and heavy downpours being the primary hazards. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to support a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon. Then for Friday, a few non-severe thunderstorms could develop before the cold front moves through the Greater Capital Region and the Mid-Hudson Valley. Primary hazards are strong winds associated with any thunderstorms.
Continue to monitor the latest forecast with any changes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Humid conditions return tomorrow into Friday as the surface high pressure system heads east and a low pressure system arrives over the Great Lakes region. Associated with this weather system is warmer than normal temperatures with highs forecasted to range in the low 80s for higher terrain locations to low 90s for valleys before a cold front moves through Friday night bringing relief from the heat and humidity for this weekend.
Based on latest forecast trends, feels-like temperatures range in the low to mid-90s for valley locations. For the Mid-Hudson Valley, forecast confidence remains steady on not reaching heat advisory criteria as more than 2 hours are needed for feels-like temperatures above 95 degrees. While it could be reached for one hour, the impacts remain minor for those more extremely susceptible to the heat and without cooling. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks when working outdoors during peak heating hours. Beginning early next week, we continue to monitor potential minor to moderate heat-related impacts as temperatures have medium chances to climb into the mid-90s for valley locations. Feels-like temperatures could climb into the upper 90s if humid conditions returns. Keep up to date on the latest forecast as we get closer to next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18Z Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals throughout this TAF period. Light and variable winds start off the period alongside clear skies, although some high clouds and fair weather cumulus are present at KGFL and KALB.
Persistent clear skies and calm winds overnight will lead to the potential for some mist/fog formation at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF, which could bring temporary vis restrictions in the early morning hours of Thursday. Any mist/fog that does form should quickly dissipate by 12Z Thursday, giving way to widespread VFR conditions through the end of the period. Winds will slightly strengthen tomorrow morning and prevail out of the south to southwest, accompanied by some additional fair weather low-to- mid level cumulus and high clouds.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.