Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fleischmanns, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Out clipper low pressure system has traversed southern Ontario and has now settled into southwest Quebec. The stratiform snow shield of the overnight period has weakened and shifted north and east out of our area, leaving high-elevation, upslope snow showers in the Southwest Adirondacks.

Additional snow showers are possible primarily in the Southwest Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, and Southern Greens through the morning as the slight deepening of the shortwave results in increased PVA that, paired with persistent upslope flow, will reinforce vertical ascent. Latest HiRes guidance has indicated the possibility of isolated pockets of freezing rain and/or sleet in the highest elevations of these already high-terrain regions late this morning before the return of region-wide dry conditions. While forecast soundings are not indicating a sufficient warm nose that would prompt partial or complete melting of falling snowflakes, it is possible that solutions are accounting for localized sinking air and subsequent warming initiated through NVA about the rear flank of the shortwave. Therefore, we included slight chance to chance freezing rain and sleet along with the chances for snow at the highest peaks of the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern Greens where it wouldn't take a substantially deep warm layer to partially or completely melt snowflakes before they reach these more elevated surfaces.
Should freezing rain be realized, accumulations would not surpass 0.01" to 0.05."

By this afternoon, the aforementioned surface cyclone will be exiting our overhead as it continues along its easterly track towards Southeast Quebec/northwest Maine. And with its associate short wave exiting in close succession, conditions will once again be in place across eastern New York and western New England. With southwest to westerly flow in place and warmer air in place from the preceding warm-advected system, high temperatures today will widely reach the mid/upper 30s to low 40s. Pockets of low 30s at elevations exceeding 1500 ft and mid 40s in the Mid-Hudson Valley will be possible, however.

In the wake of the departing system, shortwave ridging builds in across the area from the south and west with surface high pressure settling south of James Bay to our north. Throughout the overnight period tonight, a weak, back-door cold front/wind shift boundary associated with the former clipper will sink south into the region. While this boundary will bring a fairly chilly shot of air to the Southwest Adirondacks, cold air advection doesn't reach far past the immediate Capital District as the boundary continues to weaken and become stationary by tomorrow morning. Therefore, with partly to mostly cloudy skies limiting radiational cooling, low temperatures will not drop lower than the mid/upper 20s to low 30s for most. The Southwest Adirondacks, however, will fall to the upper 10s to low 20s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Message: Precipitation is expected Monday into Tuesday, but confidence remains low to medium (20% to 50%) in precipitation type.

Dry conditions persist into the morning Monday with antecedent shortwave ridging remaining in place across the region. However, tranquility will not last much past the late morning as the next disturbance to bring widespread precipitation to the region approaches.

By Monday morning, a southern-stream shortwave, whose origins can be traced back to a weak cutoff low the southern Plains, will have tracked north and east into the Ohio Valley. With a vertically stacked low pressure system settling into or just north of the northwest Great Lakes, its outer periphery extending eastward into western New York, low level convergence will increase along its southeast-extended warm front. Warm air advection and an area of isentropic lift will develop, increasing vertical ascent and allowing a stratiform precipitation shield to develop and spread into the region from southwest to northeast beginning early Monday afternoon.
However, while confidence in this occurrence is high, precipitation type continues to remain a challenge with this forecast.

As this next system moves into eastern New York and western New England, aforementioned high pressure in southeast Canada, though departing along a northeastward trajectory, will be wedged between the former clipper low situated in Atlantic Canada and the incoming, vertically stacked low. Northerly flow downstream will allow cooler air to sink southward, catching into our east to southeast flow off the western Atlantic to dam against eastward-facing slopes of the Eastern Catskills, Southern Greens, and portions of the Southwest Adirondacks and the higher terrain of the western Mohawk Valley. A sufficient warm nose, courtesy of antecedent warm low- levels, therefore looks to develop in these areas which could lead to freezing rain resulting in these areas at precipitation onset. This would especially be true for the western Mohawk Valley and Eastern Catskills since these areas would see precipitation first. In closer proximity to the cooler air, most of the Southwest Adirondacks should start out as snow, but lower elevations could see freezing rain or even some sleet. The Southern Greens, where temperatures look to remain below freezing, could also see some freezing rain or sleet as indicated through the depiction of the warm nose on latest forecast soundings. Higher elevations of the Southwest Adirondacks, however, look to keep snow as the main precipitation type as the warm nose does not appear to make it into these areas.

Timing is going to play a major role in the precipitation type forecast for this system. If precipitation onset is later than what is currently progged, then freezing rain may not be realized to the extent at which is expected to at this time.
However, if precipitation onset is earlier, then freezing rain could accumulate to more than the current thinking as it would last longer. Unfortunately, there still remains a fair amount of uncertainty with latest HiRes solutions and ensembles showing a fair amount of disagreement. But, based on the implications of the warm nose paired with the dammed cold air, confidence has increased to low to medium (30% to 50%) in at least 0.1" of freezing rain accumulation in the Eastern Catskills and western Mohawk Valley from Monday afternoon through Monday evening.
Confidence remains low (10% to 30%) in at least 0.1" of freezing rain in portions of the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern Greens from Monday afternoon through Monday night (later for Southern Greens). At this time, for the Eastern Catskills and western Mohawk Valley, the window for freezing rain occurrence looks to fall between about 18z to 00z, give or take a few hours. For the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern Greens, the window is about 20z Monday to 12z Tuesday. Elsewhere, plain rain is anticipated.

Precipitation will transition to rain everywhere by Tuesday morning when precipitation becomes more shower-like in nature.
Showers continue through Tuesday morning, gradually decreasing in spatial coverage as the warm front lifts north and east. A brief break in precipitation then comes Tuesday afternoon into the evening before additional rounds of active weather come later in the week.

High temperatures Monday will range from the low 30s to low 40s with pockets of upper 20s in the Southern Adirondacks and Southern Greens. Low temperatures Monday night will occur likely before midnight as warming occurs overnight. Lows will be very close to the highs of Monday. Then, high temperatures Tuesday will warm to the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
- Moderate confidence for a heavy precipitation event Tue night into Wed Night with 1 to 2 inches of pcpn.

The long term begins with an active weather pattern continuing, as a full latitude mid and upper level trough gets carved out over the central CONUS towards the MS River Valley. Upper level diffluence sets up over NY and New England with multiples waves of low pressure potentially impacting the region with moderate to heavy pcpn. Strong isentropic lift increases ahead of the lead wave and its warm front for periods of rain Tue night. The latest NAEFS indicates H850 temp anomalies 1 to 2 STDEVS above normal with PWATS anomalies 1 to 3 STDEVS above normal. Actual PWAT values may exceed an inch. Strong moisture transport occurs from the Gulf of Mexico Tue night thru Wed. Lows Tue night will be of the wet bulb variety with 30s to lower 40s.

The cold front stalls east of the Appalachians on Wed, as enhanced moisture transport continues from the Gulf and subtropics. The mid and upper level trough becomes negatively tilted with favorable upper level dynamics for periods of moderate to heavy rain to continue. The latest NBM probabilities of >1" of QPF are in the 70- 95% range 00Z WED - 00Z THU are across most of the forecast area. 2" probabilities are in the low chance range. The low-level thermal gradient begins to translate eastward across NY towards the Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley late in the day for some mixing of the rain with snow. Max temps will vary based on the placement of the warm front with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s over the western Mohawk Valley/Adirondack to mid 40s to mid 50s over the rest of the forecast area. Strong cold advection occurs from west to east across the forecast area Wed night for a quick transition to snow.
Latest indications from the medium range guidance and ensembles is for light to moderate snow accums over the higher terrain mainly west of the Hudson River Valley and north/northeast, though light wet snow accums may be possible in the valleys including the Capital District. Temps come crashing down into the teens and 20s, as we will have to monitor for potential flash freeze conditions.

The snow tapers to scattered snow showers and flurries from the Capital Region and Berkshires north and west on Thu as the upper level low will be over the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada.
Some lake effect snow with light to moderate accums will occur into Thu night for the western Adirondacks. It will be blustery as a secondary cold front moves through. A much colder air mass settles in. Max temps will run below normal on Thu with 20s to lower/mid 30s. Lows will be cold single digits over the higher terrain and teens elsewhere. High pressure builds in with diminishing lake effect and cold conditions for Friday. A warm front approaches the region to open the weekend with a chance of snow showers or a period of light snow. Temps will still run slightly below normal before a moderation of temps late in the weekend into next week.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A clipper low continues to bring light snow to the TAF sites early this morning with a mixture of IFR/MVFR conditions. The IFR levels are due to reduced vsbys to 1-2SM at times from snow with cigs 1.0- 3.0 kft AGL. Brief lapses to IFR levels will be possible from KALB- KPSF northward. KPOU may see a sharp transition to low VFR/high MVFR conditions between 09Z-12Z/SUN. KALB/KPSF will gradually see the snow taper off 10Z-12Z/SUN. KGFL may linger the longest to 12Z/SUN or shortly thereafter. VCSH groups were used in the late morning for lingering flurries as cigs will linger in the 2-3 kft AGL range from KALB-KPSF north to KGFL. KPOU may see cigs increase to VFR levels with mid and high clouds. A cold front will bring some isold- sct snow and rain showers, but we did not include any at TAFs at this time. Cigs will continue at VFR or high MVFR levels 2.5-5.0 kft AGL until 00Z/MON.

The winds will be south to southwest at 8-13 KT with some gusts 18- 22 kt this morning, they will veer to the southwest/west around 10- 15 KT with some gusts around 20 KT. Sfc winds further veer to the west in the afternoon around 10 KT with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB/KPSF. The winds gradually subside tonight at less than 10 KT after 00Z/MON.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Definite SHSN
RA...SN.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ032-033-038-082.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ013-014.