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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence Park, PA

June 25, 2024 2:10 PM EDT (18:10 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 9:02 PM
Moonrise 11:07 PM   Moonset 8:27 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:202406250230;;595215 Fzus51 Kcle 241946 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 346 pm edt Mon jun 24 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez148-149-250230- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 346 pm edt Mon jun 24 2024

Tonight - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees, off cleveland 68 degrees, and off erie 73 degrees.

LEZ100
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence Park, PA
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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583 FXUS61 KCLE 251747 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 147 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will continue to move east across the northern Great Lakes region, moving a warm front north today followed by a cold front Wednesday. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday before another low pressure impacts the region this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
1 PM Update...
More minor changes to pops and temperatures to reflect current trends. Model guidance is way too bullish on recovery this afternoon, so have lowered high temps a few degrees as we will struggle to rise into the 80s for much of the area. Precip chances will diminish over the next few hours with a fairly decent lull in precip expected through the evening, aside from some shower/storm chances early this evening across mainly northeast OH and northwest PA.

Original Discussion... To start off, this forecast is extremely tricky given the upstream MCS currently ongoing and how this will continue to evolve as it tracks south-southeast towards the area. Hi-res models diverge quite a bit in the handling of this system and there are multiple potential outcomes that can impact the area. The first is that the MCS continues to decay, reaching the northwest periphery of the area near 15Z and resulting in locally gusty winds and heavy rainfall keeping overall impacts fairly minor. The other potential outcome will be that the strength of the MCS maintains and surges south across Lake Erie, impacts a larger portion of the area with strong winds, heavy rain, and isolated hail. There are many factors that will determine how this evolves, including how much instability will ramp up ahead of the MCS and more importantly if that will be enough to break the cap. High EMLs and steep mid-level lapse rates may be able to continue the decaying trend of the MCS, but again if the instability ramps up quick ahead of it then that may be enough to generate more surface based storms and increase the potential for damaging wind gusts.

As this initial round of showers pushes south and continues to decay, a warm front will move across the area late afternoon/early evening, resulting in an increase of WAA and moisture across the area. It is important to note that due to the models slowing the progression of the warm front east, high temperatures for today are not only forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s. There remains a lot of uncertainty in any additional convection this afternoon and into the overnight hour, specifically with uncertainty in how well the atmosphere will recover after this mornings convection. Given the increasing moisture and diurnally driven instability, opted to maintain a chance of PoPs this afternoon into the evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. To account for the potential of severe weather today and tonight, SPC and WPC has placed much of the area in a Day 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall. Primary concerns will be strong, damaging winds and localized flooding.

Late tonight and on Wednesday, a cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure will begin to move east across the area.
With good synoptic support and strong isentropic lift, expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to impact the area for Wednesday. To account for this severe potential, SPC & WPC has placed much of the area in a Day 2 Marginal Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall. The primary hazard with these storms will be damaging winds and efficient, heavy rainfall which may result in localized flooding. High temperatures on Wednesday will climb into the mid to upper 70s.

Again, it is important to note that this entire forecast is highly dependent on the evolution of the ongoing MCS over the upper Midwest and is valid to change/be adjusted in the coming updates as models begin to handle the evolving complex better.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The short term forecast period will be fairly quiet, especially compared to the days before and day after the period. A cold front will be exiting the forecast area on Wednesday night and have quickly fading PoPs with clearing skies and falling temperatures into the lower 60s. High pressure will build in behind the cold front for Thursday and Thursday night and temperatures will be cooler than normal in the 70s during the day. Clear conditions and a decoupling atmosphere should allow for temperatures to fall considerably on Thursday night into the 50s with some upper 40s here and there, mainly NE OH and NW PA. The surface high pressure will shift east for Friday and return flow back into the region will allow for temperatures to climb back into the 80s. The return flow will also allow for better moisture to return with 60 degree dew points returning by evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity upstream will start to enter the region on Friday night. While the atmosphere will have more moisture to work with by Friday night, a stabilizing air mass with nightfall will allow for just some scattered convection with minimal concerns.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front with a supporting upper trough will move through the region on Saturday and allow for widespread chances of showers and thunderstorms. The intensity of convection will be based mainly on the timing, which at this point could be during the afternoon hours, so storms could have some punch with them. Temperatures before any showers and storms on Saturday could rise into the upper 80s and perhaps give 90 degrees a brief tap, if the system slows up a bit.
The trend for Sunday into Monday will be dry with high pressure building back into the region and temperatures will remain slightly below normal with the cooler air mass in place behind the cold front.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/
Low confidence TAF through the period with respect to SHRA/TSRA potential, although the first six hours should be VFR as decaying precip and high cloud prevail across the terminals.
Generally VFR expected overnight with dry candidness, although low chances for SHRA/TSRA are possible around/after 00Z at KYNG and KERI, but chances too low for TAF mention. SHRA/TSRA activity may pick up after 12Z but will more likely be confined to just beyond this forecast period in the 18Z Wed to 03Z Thu timeframe. Gusty south winds to generally 25 kts over the first 6 hours will subside a bit after 00Z, becoming more southwest overnight. Winds become west/northwest near the end of the period at western terminals as a cold front moves into the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday. Non-VFR possible again in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

MARINE
High pressure will continue to the east of the region today and return flow with south to southwest winds behind a warm front will persist across the lake. The pressure gradient and surface winds will increase later this morning and into the afternoon as a storm complex enters from the northwest and will allow for winds of 20-25 kt for a 6-8 hour period. Believe the 20 kt sustained mark gets to about Cleveland and have extended the Small Craft Advisory east. The window for stronger winds is later than previously forecasted and have a later end time to encapsulate the entire event. Showers and storms will be possible across the basin today and tonight and convective marine headlines will be possible. A cold front will cross the lake on Wednesday and flow will become northwest. The pressure gradient over the lake does not look impressive enough to have substantial northwest flow to allow for a great increase in waves. Flow will become lighter and northerly with high pressure on Thursday. Southeast flow returns to the lake on Friday with a warm front lifting across the region, as high pressure moves east. A cold front will cross the lake on Saturday. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the feature and could approach the need for a headline.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>146.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
EREP1 3 mi52 minSW 9.9G22
WCRP1 12 mi70 minS 12G20 78°F
NREP1 15 mi100 minWSW 8.9G18 81°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 30 mi70 minS 8.9G14
ASBO1 43 mi70 minSSW 11G14
45208 44 mi30 minWSW 18G25 76°F 74°F1 ft29.7665°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 44 mi70 minSW 12G19 78°F 29.84


Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KERI ERIE INTL/TOM RIDGE FIELD,PA 8 sm19 minSSW 19G3410 smClear81°F61°F51%29.78
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Wind History graph: ERI
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Buffalo, NY,




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