Friday, October30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palenville, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:53PM Friday October 30, 2020 1:30 PM EDT (17:30 UTC) Moonrise 5:48PMMoonset 6:16AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1150 Am Edt Fri Oct 30 2020
.gale warning in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
This afternoon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light sleet early. Rain early, then chance of rain late.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1150 Am Edt Fri Oct 30 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure southeast of Montauk point at midday will continue to move east this afternoon. Strong high pressure builds in behind the low and settles over the waters on Saturday. A cold front then moves through Sunday evening, followed by a couple of surface troughs into Monday and Monday night. High pressure then builds in on Tuesday and remains in control through the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palenville, NY
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location: 42.18, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 301350 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 950 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. Mixture of light snow and rain will be diminishing in coverage from north to south through the day as storm system tracks quickly off the middle Atlantic coast. Large Canadian high pressure settles across the area tonight and for the start of the weekend. This will bring unseasonably chilly temperatures before a moderation that is expected on Sunday ahead of a stronger system that will impact the region later Sunday into Sunday night with a mixture of rain and snow showers with brisk conditions.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Updated at 930 AM.

Winter Weather Advisory continues for southern VT, Berkshires and northern Litchfield County til Noon today.

Current forecast is on track. Band of heaviest snow is moving southeast across Litchfield county Connecticut with area observations and web cams indicating that most of the area has picked up a slushy 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow early this morning. Some localized higher amounts have likely occurred over higher terrain in southern Vermont, the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills where our headlines continue until noon. Snow will be tapering off and ending from northwest to southeast this morning with little to no additional accumuation in most areas and we will probably let the headlines expire on time for areas east of the Hudson River at noon. Still expecting some clearing to work in from the northwest later this afternoon for most areas. Previous discussion is below.


Winter Weather Advisory continues for southern VT, Berkshires and northern Litchfield County til Noon Friday.

As of 600 AM EDT . Precipitation filling in rather quickly with a sharp edge across the Dacks and Lake George areas. As intensity has increased, so has the wet-bulb processes coinciding with northerly wind magnitude increases. These are resulting in a transition to snow for many locations per social media reports and webcams. So main update was to PoP/Wx grids per radar trends along with where transition was underway to mostly snow. We did issue a couple of SPS for eastern NY and kept the WSW going for most of our western New England counties.

Prev Disc . Regional temperature analysis along with NY Mesonet and DOT web cams reveals snow was occurring at and above 1500 feet for most locations around 3 AM. The freezing levels were lowering across the Dacks where snow was occurring closer to 1000 feet. Main culprit was a short wave across West Virginia and approaching Virginia as mid-level jet streak/baroclinic leaf was developing and clearly evident on the layer H2O vapor and IR imagery this early Friday morning. This should enhance the precipitation into the morning commute, along with the mid-level FGEN back drifting southward, and further draw upon the northerly winds. Cross sections and BUFKIT profiles all suggest these northerly winds will usher in colder temperatures as the transition toward mostly light snow should occur down to the valley floor through sunrise. So as about one tenth of an inch of QPF has already fallen per the NY Mesonet and Metar observations, an additional one to two tenths of an inch are forecast. This would appear to cut back total snowfall accumulations which we will do here with this update. However, WSW for western New England (minus southern Litchfield) will remain in place due to impacts and lower thresholds for headlines.

Departure timing of this system seems to occur just before the noon hour with clouds slowly diminishing from north to south through the afternoon hours. A H850 temperatures drop back through the day to an average of -6C, this should keep our afternoon 'high' temperatures rather cold. Valley 'high' temperatures near 40F with 30s elsewhere. These forecast highs will be fairly close to the record Lo-Max temperatures for the date with value's mainly in the 30s. Refer to the climate section below for these records.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Possible near record low temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning as Canadian high pressure settles across the region. Big bubble no trouble (>1030mb) through the day Saturday with light winds and nearly clear skies. Overnight lows into the teens and lower 20s with highs Saturday afternoon generally into the mid 40s for valley locations and around 40F for the higher terrain.

As we watch our second full moon, Halloween and we change our clocks overnight, this high slides off the New England coastline Saturday night as a slight southerly wind should evolve ahead of our next storm system. Clouds will likely increase for western areas toward sunrise Sunday but should remain dry. Overnight lows will be milder with forecast values ranging from the mid-upr 20s across the higher terrain to lower 30s for the Capital Region and points southward through the mid- Hudson Valley and Litchfield County CT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The period starts out on Sunday with our region in a developing south-southwest flow regime ahead of a vigorous upper level low moving eastward across the Great Lakes. So after a chilly start to the day, southerly winds in the low levels will become breezy and result in decent warming during the afternoon. High temperatures should get close to normal (lower/mid 50s in valleys and 40s in mountains). Southerly winds could gust 20-30 mph, which would make it feel cooler though. Showers will arrive during the afternoon ahead of and along a surface cold front associated with the leading edge of upper level diffluence/height falls, as the upper low tracks into the eastern Great Lakes. Highest probs for measurable rainfall looks to be across areas west of the Hudson Valley.

The upper level low will move over our region Sunday night, while strong cold advection commences in the low levels. 850 mb temperatures will be anomalously cold, dropping to -2 to -3 STDEV by late Sunday night. There will be a combination of upslope and lake effect snow showers, as moderate lake induced instability develops. At this time, a westerly flow should result in some lake effect snow bands across the western Adirondacks during the first half of the night. As the core of the upper low starts to move into New England, the flow will become northwesterly late Sunday night, which would shift snow bands southward to the Mohawk/Schoharie Valleys. A light snow accumulation will be possible in these areas, as well as the southern Greens due to some upslope snow. Elsewhere, it will be cold and turning blustery with isolated to scattered snow showers.

Monday will be a rather winter-like day across the region, with temperatures expected to be 10-15 degrees below normal, gusty northwest winds (25-35 mph at times) and scattered lake effect/upslope snow showers. While the main upper low will be well east of the region, we will remain under the influence of a cold upper trough and NW flow regime. Additional snow showers expected Monday night, as a short wave trough moves through. Some of the model guidance has enough QPF for at least light snow accumulations across the western/southern Adirondacks, with very light amounts elsewhere. Will have to watch the model trends with this system in the coming days. It will be continued cold, with temperatures below freezing across the area.

The upper level trough should finally start to move east of the region on Tuesday, but it will still be blustery and cold with NW flow hanging on for one more day. Snow shower activity is expected to end, as surface ridging builds eastward into our area during the afternoon. Dry conditions with moderating temperatures expected Wednesday through Thursday, as high pressure moves south/east of the region and a southwest flow regime develops.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Precipitation shield encompassing much of the region early this morning, as an area of low pressure starts to move off the mid Atlantic coast. Rain has changed to snow at all TAF sites except for KPOU, where rain was still occurring as of 11Z. Rain will change to snow around 12Z-13Z at KPOU as colder air works in from the north. Conditions will generally be IFR/LIFR through much of the morning, although snow will have ended by 12Z at KGFL with MVFR there.

The snow is expected to taper off from NW to SE through 17Z, as low pressure moves farther off the east coast. Once the snow ends, conditions will improve to MVFR then VFR during the afternoon. VFR conditions should then prevail through the rest of the period ending 12Z Saturday.

Winds will be northerly around 10 kt, becoming north-northwest this afternoon. Some brief gusts around 20 kt will occur, especially at KALB and KPOU this morning.

Outlook .

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. SHSN. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

FIRE WEATHER. Widespread precipitation across the area tapering off this morning from north to south. Fair but chilly weather Friday night into Sunday morning. Southerly winds increase Sunday ahead of a strong cold front with an increase chance for showers.

HYDROLOGY. Some ponding of water on roadways may occur this morning from a mix of snow and rain as the upper level trough approaches. Rivers and area streams will respond a little bit to the rainfall, however, no river flooding is expected.

Fair and chilly Friday night into Sunday as high pressure at the surface and aloft dominates our weather. Next chances for precipitation will come Sunday afternoon into Monday as a low pressure system approaches and moves across the region. Looking at rain and snow showers with this system.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

CLIMATE. Record Lo-Maximum Oct 30th Albany: 35 degrees 1925 Glens Falls: 32 degrees 1925 Poughkeepsie: 41 degrees 2002

Record Lows Oct 31st Albany: 18 degrees 1988 Glens Falls: 16 degrees 2002 Poughkeepsie: 18 degrees 1988

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT today for CTZ001. NY . None. MA . Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT today for MAZ001-025. VT . Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT today for VTZ013>015.

SYNOPSIS . BGM NEAR TERM . MSE/BGM SHORT TERM . BGM LONG TERM . JPV AVIATION . JPV FIRE WEATHER . IAA/BGM HYDROLOGY . IAA/BGM CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 12 mi60 min Calm 35°F 1014 hPa34°F
TKPN6 12 mi42 min N 17 G 25 39°F 56°F1015.3 hPa36°F
NPXN6 24 mi60 min N 4.1 34°F 1015 hPa32°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 81 mi42 min NNE 7 G 11 37°F 61°F1013.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 84 mi42 min ENE 2.9 G 12 37°F 58°F1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY38 mi37 minN 8 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F32°F89%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE8N6N7N8N9N7N8N9N9N8N9
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1 day agoSW3SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE4CalmCalmE4NE4
2 days agoN6N5E3N4NE3CalmCalmNW4N3CalmCalmN4N3N3N3CalmCalmN3NE3Calm--NW3CalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for Catskill, Hudson River, New York
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Catskill
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:38 AM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:03 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:57 PM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:33 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.4443.62.81.91.10.40.10.51.52.53.44.14.34.13.32.41.60.90.40.31

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:47 AM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:09 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:06 PM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:39 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.444.23.8321.20.50.10.41.42.53.44.14.44.23.52.61.710.40.30.92

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.