Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palenville, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, but strong storms aren't anticipated for today.

2) A strong area of low pressure passing by to the north will bring windy conditions for Thursday, which could result in some downed tree limbs. In addition, there is also a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for much of the region, with damaging winds being the main threat.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak upper level disturbance will be passing by to the northwest for today. This feature will allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms today, mainly in the afternoon hours and for western areas.

Early this morning, IR satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds currently over western and central NY and these clouds will be spreading towards the area for this morning.
Skies will generally be partly cloudy for today with a mix of sun and clouds. Despite some sunshine, CAMs suggest that instability will be limited today and model soundings show rather thin CAPE profiles aloft, mainly due to fairly low surface dewpoints (values in the 50s) and dry air aloft.
Surface-based instability generally will be under 500 J/kg and mid level lapse rates won't be very strong at all. As a result, while some thunder will be possible, no strong or severe storms are expected for today and thunderstorms won't be long lived or very organized. Highs will generally be in the 70s with some parts of the Hudson Valley getting close to 80 degrees for today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A strong area of low pressure for mid June (sub-990 mb low) will be moving from the Great Lakes and across southern Ontario and southern Quebec for Thursday. A strong pressure gradient will be in place thanks to this storm system, with gusty southerly winds in the morning becoming southwesterly by afternoon and westerly by evening. Some gusts in the 25-40 mph range will be possible. NBM has been increasing the probabilities for gusts reaching or exceeding 40 mph, with now probabilities as high as 40 to 80% over the Capital Region and northern Taconics. Some downed trees limbs and power outages will be possible, as even sub-advisory winds can have impacts in the warm season due to the leaves on the trees.

There are also will be the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday. An initial batch of showers and (perhaps a rumble of thunder) will be ongoing early Thursday morning as the storm's warm front lifts through the area. It now appears that there should be some brief clearing in the late morning or early afternoon, which may allow for some instability to build ahead of the storm's cold front. With increasing low level moisture (dewpoints surging into the 60s), there could be just enough SBCAPE (perhaps 500-1000 J/kg) to allow for some strong to severe thunderstorms to develop, mainly from about the late morning through the late afternoon hours. With the strong dynamics in place, there will be plenty of shear in the 0-6 km layer, with values over 60 kts according to the 00z HRRR. The 00z HRRR and NAM also suggest impressive SigTor values, with values over 3, which makes sense due to the expected helicity in place. The instability is still the one question mark and could be a limiting factor if enough clearing doesn't occur, but the impressive wind field aloft does suggest a risk for damaging winds and/or tornadic development is in place. SPC now has a Slight Risk in place for much of the area, which makes sense considering the latest CAMs.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Radiational fog developed during the overnight at KGFL but had already begun dissipating with sunrise underway. As a result, all sites are back to being VFR with just few-sct cumulus and some passing cirrus.

During the day today, flying conditions should be VFR for much of the day. The exception will be during any passing showers in the late afternoon or early evening hours hours. Will include a PROB30 to address this possibility, with MVFR conditions (mainly for visibility) within any brief showers. A brief rumble of thunder can't be ruled out, but coverage looks too low to include in the TAF at this time. Otherwise, it will be VFR, with sct-bkn cigs around 6-8 kft and some additional mid level clouds as well. Southerly winds will be around 5-10 kts, although some higher gusts can't be totally ruled out.

VFR conditions are expected for the start of tonight with bkn- ovc mid level clouds and southerly winds around 5-10 kts for all sites. Some light showers rain will spread towards the terminals by the late night hours, which could allow for flying conditions to be MVFR once again towards daybreak Thursday, mainly for visibility.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.