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LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
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lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 081045 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 545 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023


AVIATION

A region of low end VFR based clouds traversed the Se Mi terminals overnight as a result of a narrow region of moisture advection in advance of an approaching warm front. This front will lift north of the area during the morning, allowing Se Mi to be within the warm sector. Low level warming within this airmass boost boundary layer mixing which will support an increase in SSW winds by afternoon, with gusts around 20 knots expected. Low level moisture will be transported into Se Mi during the course of the day and night as the area remains within the warm sector. There continue to be variance among the model solution as to how quickly MVFR based clouds will advance into the region today. In light of most recent probabilistic ceiling guidance and upstream observations, expect lower end VFR based clouds (3500-4500 ft) this afternoon and evening, with conditions trending to MVFR late this evening or overnight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Moderate in ceilings below 5000 feet this afternoon. High tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

DISCUSSION...

Mild weather to persist into the first half of the weekend as the amplified North American ridge tracks through.

Yesterday's highs peaked out in the upper 40s, a good 10 degrees above normal. Today and Saturday will be even warmer.

Some very warm air was noted over the western Ohio Valley, with the 00z ILX raob indicating a 925 mb temp of 13 C and a 850 mb temp of 14 C. Increasing southwest flow today will bring some of this warm air into the state, but an increase moisture and isentropic ascent will help cool the temperature profiles. Increasing clouds during the day will cap our warm up. Even so, NAM looks overly moist, and will favor Euro mos maxes today in the mid 50s, with support from the regional GEM 925 mb temps of 7+ C. Local probabilistic guidance supporting wind gusts around 25 mph with the daytime mixing depths.

Continued moist low level flow with dew pts pushing into the 40s will eventually lead to light showers/drizzle, as a good height fall center looks to be tracking through Lake Michigan Saturday morning. Showalter index falling to around zero with steep 700-500 mb lapse rates normally offers up a chance of thunderstorms as the 50 knot low level jets traverses the Central Great Lakes, but mid level dry slot and little in the way of cape suggests otherwise and will leave thunder out. In fact, bulk of the rainfall looks to be passing northwest of CWA, despite PW Values increasing to near 1 inch. With limited clouds depths, probably going to be hard pressed to even see a tenth of an inch of rain. If there is less drizzle/light showers around, temperatures certainly can reach 60+ degrees, otherwise upper 50s can be expected. The record daily high temperatures (see climate section) for December 9th looked to be tied or broken.

A distinctly positive tilted trough over Central North America will bring colder weather for the second half of weekend as a cold front looks to be passing through late in the day on Saturday. A low/wave attempts to ride the baroclinic zone in between Central/Eastern Great Lakes as the longwave trough axis trends neutral tilted. Still likely too late for significant precipitation to impact us per vast majority of medium range models/ensemble members, but there is a chance eastern areas may get clipped with showers before colder air sweeps in, with 850 mb temps progged to lower to -10 C on Sunday.

Unfavorable northwest flow and just modestly cold enough airmass around for Sunday to support a chance of flurries/isolated melting snow showers as the trough axis swings through Sunday evening.

Shortwave ridging for Monday with another potential cold front for Tuesday, but bulk of cold air and height falls expected to remain over northern Great Lakes/Ontario. So, good chance the weakening cold front comes through dry with the lack of moisture and forcing.

MARINE...

Tight pressure gradient sits over the Great Lakes this morning as influence of southeast CONUS high pressure is gradually replaced with a strong and expansive surface low lifting toward Hudson Bay.
Currently backed surface flow veers to the SW as the low departs, but sustained winds still hold around 15 to 20 knots. A seasonably warm airmass keeps conditions stable and gusts comfortably below 30 knots today. Low pressure then brings widespread rain to the region Saturday, dragging a cold front through in the afternoon. A brief uptick in gusts to near gale force is possible along the front, but quick departure of the low level jet ensures just a short window of opportunity Saturday afternoon/early evening. Second round of low pressure on Sunday stays far enough east to limit wind potential with just a subset of guidance showing the edge of the precipitation shield clipping western Lake Erie/Lake St. Clair. Further north across Lake Huron, cooler northwest flow sets up a pattern conducive to lake effect snow showers Sunday and Monday.

CLIMATE...

Here are the record high temperatures for December 9th:

Detroit 58 (set in 1946)
Flint 59 (set in 1946)
Saginaw 58 (set in 1952)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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