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FXUS65 KREV 032113 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 113 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather and above average temperatures will prevail for the first half of the week. A series of low pressure systems will produce periods of showers and gusty winds for Wednesday and Thursday. A return to quiet weather is expected for Friday and over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

After a brief period of unsettled weather, the week will start off on a drier and warmer note as amplifying high pressure aloft overspreads the Sierra and western Nevada. Temperatures will steadily warm through Tuesday when daytime highs become 8-12 degrees above seasonal averages. Light winds and large scale subsidence may allow for urban haze in the mornings and freezing fog in the colder Sierra valleys.

The synoptic regime remains progressive this week as a broad Pacific trough and embedded shortwaves propagate through the region during the second half of the week. The first trough arrives on Wednesday, yielding occasional showers during the afternoon and evening. Chances of showers increase to 70-90% in the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin northward into Lassen and N Washoe County per latest blended guidance. Meanwhile, chances for rain showers Wednesday afternoon for the Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden area will be 30- 50% with most locales in the Basin & Range having 10-30% chance of showers. As showers begin to wind down Thursday morning, a second shortwave will reinvigorate shower activity a bit for Thursday afternoon and evening. Probabilities for precip will be fairly similar spatially and temporally for this second bout, though snow levels will be much lower. This will allow for some light snowfall between 5000-5500' on Thursday.

When all is said and done, rain and snow totals will be on the lighter side with these trough passages as the Tahoe Basin receives a couple inches of snow with up to 6" along the Sierra crest.
Meanwhile, rain totals for lower western Nevada valleys will vary from a few hundredths to 0.2" of an inch. Another impact to keep in mind will be breezy valley winds and strong winds along Sierra ridges Wednesday afternoon. Valleys gusts will reach 30-40 mph at times while Sierra ridgetops gust to 70+ mph. Wind prone areas along US-395 and US-95 near Walker Lake may see higher gusts up to 50 mph at times. Winds will taper off for Thursday, but ridge winds will remain somewhat elevated until the weekend.

A return to quiet weather with slow warming will accompany strengthening high pressure aloft next weekend. There appears to be some potential for active weather around the middle of the month, but there is still too much uncertainty among ensembles to instill much confidence in the long term forecast.

-Salas

AVIATION

VFR conditions will largely prevail for the rest of the day, along with abundant mid to upper cloud coverage. High pressure aloft will decrease cloud cover for Monday, as well as maintain widespread VFR conditions and light winds. The sole concern will be the potential for FZFG in the Martis Valleys/KTRK Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Deteriorating flight conditions are expected Wednesday, characterized by reduced CIGS/VIS from showers, gusty winds, and mountain wave turbulence.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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