Saturday, March6, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeview, OR

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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 6:03PM Friday March 5, 2021 9:23 PM PST (05:23 UTC) Moonrise 12:44AMMoonset 10:20AM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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location: 42.19, -120.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 060515 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 915 PM PST Fri Mar 5 2021

DISCUSSION. Snow levels have fallen to approximately 1500 feet in portions of Josephine County this evening as a strong, slow moving frontal system gradually pushes through the area. Temperatures where it is snowing in Josephine County between 1500 and 2000 feet are currently 33 to 34 degrees and, with the recent warm afternoons we've been experiencing, what light accumulations that have been reported have been on decks. The latest round of High Resolution Model data suggests we'll see about one more hour of snowfall at current rates across that area, so expect that snowfall accumulations are most likely to remain under 1 inch there. Thus, it does not appear we'll need an advisory there, but, of course, we'll bee keeping a close eye on how the situation evolves.

The going forecast is very much on track and appears to be better than the numerical model guidance, so no updates are currently needed.

Wind headlines for areas east of the Cascades were previously extended out 3 hours to 06Z/10PM PST due to the slower movement of the front and model and observational trends. The latest observations suggests winds have likely peaked, but are still near advisory levels in Modoc and southeastern Lake counties. It does appear we'll most likely be able to let these wind headlines expire at 10 PM PST.

Healthy precipitation amounts are occuring where the front is, with even the Medford Airport now approaching a half inch of rain, thus far. In addition to monitoring the progression of the front overnight, we'll be keeping a close eye on snow levels across the forecast area. As was previously said, the going forecast looks right on track. Said another way, snow levels are likely to fall into the 1500 to 2500 foot range for most of the forecast area before precipitation ends, but snow accumulations should be as forecast. ~BTL

AVIATION. For the 06/00Z TAF Cycle . Strong winds have tapered off this evening, especially over many terminals. However, wind still remain gusty with gusts up to 20 pm over LMT this Friday evening. A mix of VFR to MVFR ceilings will continue tonight under some heavy rainfall under this cold front. Eventually, the front should move eastward tonight allowing for the heavy rain to also taper off. There is an isolated chance for some IFR ceilings and visibilities in the Umpqua valley tonight as the airmass stabilizes. A moist boundary layer could allow for pockets of IFR fog.

Otherwise, look for mainly VFR conditions on Saturday as drier air moves into the lower layers of the atmosphere. There could very well be overcast to broken ceilings on Saturday, however they should remain above 3000 feet. Isolated showers will also be around the region as the airmass remains unstable. -Smith

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PST Friday 05 Mar 2021 . A new batch of headlines have been issued to cover the evolution of conditions through the weekend. Winds and seas peaked early this morning, but seas will remain very steep this evening. Seas will then be high and steep will gradually subsiding to 10 to 12 ft on Saturday.

Another front Saturday night may bring gale force south gusts, with strongest winds and very steep seas north of Cape Blanco. Winds ease and seas become swell dominated Sunday as a heavy long period west-northwest swell builds into the waters.

Seas peak Sunday night at 17 to 21 ft at 17 to 18 seconds then gradually subside, remaining very high and very steep into early Monday morning. Seas gradually subside later Monday as another, weaker front passes through the region. The series of disturbances will continue through Tuesday with high and steep seas and episodes of advisory strength winds. Winds are likely to become northerly Tuesday night with seas becoming dominated by northerly wind seas. North winds will be strongest south of Cape Blanco with generally diminishing seas Wednesday into Friday. -DW

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 235 PM PST Fri Mar 5 2021/

DISCUSSION . Near Term . Through Sunday Night . Winds are easing in Oregon west of the Cascades as the front continues to progress inland. Winds in the Shasta Valley will be the next location to lower. East of the Cascades, winds will remain elevated through the evening before lowering overnight.

Have elected not to issue a winter weather advisory for portions of Jackson and Josephine County because warm road temperatures should cause snow to melt on contact. Melting snow will still cause slippery road conditions and freezing temperatures overnight could lead to untreated roads developing light ice buildup. Snow levels are still expected to fall between 1500-2000 feet as precipitation tapers off west of the Cascades and could go as low as 1200-1300 feet as very scattered showers move in. Where these scattered showers produce precipitation will be where they get help from terrain with most of the meteorological forcing moving east of the area. In Jackson county, folks near Roxy Anne Peak and higher elevations around Ashland could get some wintry mix as a result of these showers. Also along I-5 from Wolf Creek to Canyonville in Douglas County. East of the Cascades everywhere should observe at least 0.5" of snow with locally higher amounts at higher elevation. The best forcing for precipitation will be in SE Modoc County and areas just south and east. At the coast Showers will slowly taper off except in the south coast mountains where upslope flow could keep showers going through Saturday morning. The one place where snow tonight is still expected to create advisory level snow conditions for most of central and western Siskiyou County. See the WSWMFR product for further details.

Another front will move into the area through Sunday morning, but will be weaker than this current one. It does not look like wind or winter headlines will be needed at this time. The Rogue Valley is currently forecast to get 0.01" from this front and places south and east are unlikely to receive any precipitation, especially places east of the Cascades. Even the Umpqua Basin will stay on the dry side with only up to 0.1" expected. Precipitation will be focused mainly in the foothills and mountains along the coast and in Douglas County. Snow levels west of the Cascades will start around 3000 feet, drop quickly as night sets in to around 2000 feet, and hold there through morning. East of the Cascades snow levels could remain a bit higher, around 2500 feet as southerly winds hold warmer air in the area. One impact to keep an eye on is the potential for frost Sunday night in to monday. Temperatures along the coast have been trending colder, but the point probability at North Bend puts the chance of 37 degrees or less at 20% per the NBM. Also to consider is that winds are expected to be blowing between 5-10 mph through the night and for frost, the location would need to be fairly well sheltered for it to form. -Miles

LONG TERM . (Monday through Friday) . There is high confidence in the ensemble model solutions that an upper low will drop south out of the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday, becoming located off the PacNW coast on Monday. As the low continues to shift southward off the coast of southern Oregon and northern California it will bring a cold and moist pattern to the area. Models and ensembles are showing good confidence in light to moderate precipitation much of the area, with the best chances for precipitation along the coast and into Josephine and Siskiyou Counties and along the Cascades. Snow levels are initially expected around 2000 to 3000 feet Monday but may lower to around 1500 to 2000 feet Monday night and Tuesday. In western and southern Siskiyou County, where precipitation amounts may be greater and snow levels are expected down to some valley floors, there is a potential for moderate snow impacts late Monday into Tuesday, especially in the mountains of western Siskiyou and in the Mount Shasta City area. For inland areas, west of the Cascades in southwest Oregon, precipitation is forecast to be mainly light as snow levels lower Monday night and Tuesday morning. However, moderate precipitation is possible for some areas, mainly across Curry and southern Josephine. We will continue to evaluate and monitor the potential for snow impacts and update as needed.

Wednesday, chances for precipitation will diminish as the low moves inland over southern and south-central California. Then models are in good agreement indicating an upper ridge building into the region late Wednesday through Friday, which would result in mainly dry weather. There is lower confidence in the strength of this ridge, which will factor into whether any weak disturbances affect the area late in the week and potentially bring some light precipitation to some western portions of the CWA.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ029>031. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM PST Monday for ORZ021-022.

CA . Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ084-085. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday above 2500 feet in the for CAZ080. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday above 3000 feet in the for CAZ082. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-370.

BTL/MB/DW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lake County Airport, OR3 mi31 minSE 1210.00 miFair40°F22°F49%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLKV

Wind History from LKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS8S5S8S9S10S7S3SW4W6SW5S16
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1 day agoS4SE12SE9SE9SE8SE8S7SE6S7S5SE4SE6S12S16
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2 days agoN66W4N7N6N6NW7NW5NW4CalmCalmNE353Calm4S10S10SE7S6S8--W3N4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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