Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeview, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:15PM Monday August 10, 2020 12:15 PM PDT (19:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:46PMMoonset 11:54AM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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location: 42.19, -120.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 101607 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 907 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2020

UPDATE. An upper level ridge remains in place, centered offshore. Also a surface thermal trough is along the coast. The thermal trough is not quite as strong as yesterday. However, still expect strong gusty northerly winds at the coast and over the coastal waters today. The Brookings area is not expected to be as hot as yesterday but still expect a Chetco warming effect along the southern Curry coast with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Inland, temperatures will warm further with highs in the 90s to lower 100s (except warmer in the lower Klamath River Valley area near Happy Camp and Somes Bar).

The main change is with thunderstorm chances. Models are indicating that for late this afternoon and this evening the best chance for thunderstorms will be just south of the area. However, there remains a slight chance for storms into the south- central and southeast Sikiyou area near Mount Shasta and far southeast Modoc County. Have updated the forecast to reflect this change, reducing the area of coverage for thunderstorms today.

Tomorrow as an upper trough approaches from the northwest expect strong gusty winds east of the Cascades in Oregon. This combined with dry humidities will bring increased fire weather concerns. Additionally, there is higher confidence that isolated thunderstorms will develop in southeast Siskiyou, Modoc and far southeast Lake Counties Tuesday afternoon and evening. For details, please see the previous discussion below.

AVIATION. For the 10/12Z TAF Cycle . At the coast and just offshore. The main concern will be gusty winds are expected again late this morning into this evening, especially north of Cape Blanco, including North Bend. Meanwhile, the latest satellite images used for detecting low clouds and fog is showing marine stratus moving from the north offshore, except near the coast north of Newport. This will move south into the morning hours and could result in IFR ceilings just off the coast between 15-17z. There's a chance this could continue to move south towards Cape Blanco late this morning. North Bend could experience patchy areas of fog for a few hours this morning with the difference between air and dewpoint temperatures currently at 1 degree F and this was added to the TAF. We'll have to keep a watch for brief LIFR ceilings between 14-15z but confidence was not high enough to include it in the TAF. Any patchy fog/low clouds will clear out with VFR conditions into this evening when LIFR to IFR fog and stratus is expected to begin to affect the Brookings area and coastal areas north of Cape Blanco.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with gusty breezes at Roseburg this afternoon into this evening. The one exception is visibility restrictions due to smoke from the Red Salmon Fire in western Siskiyou County through the TAF period. -Petrucelli

MARINE. Updated 800 AM PDT Monday 10 August 2020 . The thermal trough will gradually weaken and move onshore this evening. North winds will slowly diminish tonight into Tuesday, with winds dropping below gale force this evening. However, moderate to strong winds and steep seas will persist. The thermal trough will rebuild again Thursday into Friday, so north winds and seas will increase at that time. Marine headlines are likely to affect most of the waters from Thursday through Saturday afternoon. The thermal trough will build north along the coast this weekend, which will result in diminishing winds and seas.

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 459 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2020/

DISCUSSION . Over the past few days, the most noteworthy aspects of the forecast for this week have been consistent. Warmer and drier than normal conditions with periods of stronger winds, and a slight chance of thunderstorms in portions of northern California late today and again on Tuesday (with coverage expanding slightly into southern Lake County). Also, a shorter duration and less coverage of coastal stratus compared to normal.

The model trends over the past couple of days have been to slightly strengthen the gusty late day winds inland on both Tuesday and Wednesday (ahead of the passage of a dry trough on Wednesday), slightly lessen the extent of instability and amount of available mid- level moisture over southern portions of Siskiyou and Modoc Counties this evening, and (as mentioned) slightly expand the extent of weak instability on Tuesday evening. Originally, much of the instability was expected to shift east of our area on Tuesday. But, Tuesday now looks to be the more favorable for development of isolated thunderstorms than today. The highest probability in our area today will be in southern Siskiyou County from the vicinity of Mount Shasta due eastward, then on Tuesday over both the northern and extreme southeast portions of Modoc County. The modest probability of thunderstorms on both days will be offset by the fact that very dry lower levels of the atmosphere will result in little accompanying rainfall. The outlook is for a stable air mass Wednesday through at least Saturday. A minority of GEFS ensemble members, and the operational GFS do indicate weak instability over the northern portion of the southern Oregon Cascades into central Oregon on Sunday. We have continued with the drier, stable majority solution.

There remains little change from previous forecast issuances in the trend or extent of heating. Today will be the hottest day of the week for most of our area, but a modest cooling trend Tuesday into Wednesday will be followed by high temperatures trending hotter again into Saturday. In fact, highs on Saturday look to be quite similar to those of today. The exceptions will be at the coast with highs near to slightly below normal through the week, but another hot day at Brookings today and downslope heating from northeast winds likely again at Brookings on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 300 AM PDT Monday 10 August 2020 . A thermal trough along the coast will move inland this afternoon. A weaker thermal trough will then set up at the coast again tonight into Tuesday morning. This will result in the poorest humidity recovery this morning along the Coast Range and ridges of western Siskiyou County, including zones 618, 619, western 620, and western 280. But, mainly moderate recoveries tonight will still be noticeably drier than normal.

There is a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms in southern portions of Siskiyou and Modoc counties today, then in much the same area on Tuesday but also edging into far southern Lake County. Any thunderstorms that do develop will not produce much rainfall.

The warming trend will peak this afternoon. Temperatures will then trend cooler into Wednesday, but remain above normal through the week. The brief, modest cooling will be accompanied by the passage of a dry cold front on Wednesday. Thus, gusty winds and low relative humidities are expected Tuesday and Wednesday east of the Cascades. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Oregon fire weather zones 624/625 for Tuesday afternoon and evening, and may become necessary for Wednesday also. Compared to Tuesday, conditions on Wednesday look to be slightly cooler, but similarly dry and breezy to windy. Minimum relative humidity east of the Cascades on both days will generally be in the lower teens with 15 to 25 mph winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

A warming trend with dry weather will follow during the second half of the week. By Saturday, temperature and humidity levels look to be similar to those of today. -DW

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for ORZ624-625.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-370-376.

CC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lake County Airport, OR3 mi23 minVar 310.00 miFair81°F37°F21%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLKV

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Last 24hrN555N9N10
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1 day ago55SE73SE5SW10
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2 days agoN12
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6CalmNW6N5N4N9N9NW7NW9NW10N15N13N12NW9N10N6N6SE3NE4NE3E43

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.