Lakeview, OR Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakeview, OR

October 3, 2023 2:27 PM PDT (21:27 UTC)
Sunrise 7:04AM   Sunset 6:46PM   Moonrise  8:09PM   Moonset 11:14AM 

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1054 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

Clouds linger in many areas this morning after yesterday's and last night's rain. Speaking of which, rain amounts were largely 0.25-0.50 of an inch along the coast from Gold Beach northward and also from northern Jackson County northward. Valley areas west of the Cascades saw mostly 0.10-0.25 of an inch.
Amounts were less than 0.10 of an inch south and eastward from there. Areas of dense fog are being reported in Brookings this morning. While radar isn't showing a lot out there this morning, areas of light rain/drizzle are occurring. These clouds/drizzle will have a tendency to break up this afternoon as upper ridging offshore noses into the area. Many areas that are cloudy this morning will turn out sunny by the end of the day.

With the upper ridge building in tonight, expect the development of a surface thermal trough in NorCal/SW Oregon, a strengthening low-level inversion and some offshore flow (east-northeast winds)
that will be prevalent over the upper slopes/ridges. These winds will also likely descend through the Chetco River Valley resulting in some warming all the way to the coast at Brookings at midweek (highs well into the 70s, even 80s). Recent moisture though, especially near and west of the Cascades, will result in areas of low clouds and fog overnight into Wednesday morning.

The upper ridge will build strongly over the region Wednesday through Saturday resulting in a several day period of warm, fall weather. The peak of the warmth inland will be Thu-Sat with temperatures ranging from 5-15F degrees above normal. This puts Medford into the upper 80s (15-25% chance of 90F) for highs all 3 days. Best chance for 90F is Friday. Friday also coincides with the surface thermal trough/low moving northward and offshore.
This pattern often brings the warmer weather to places on the coast that don't usually get it, like North Bend. Right now, we're forecasting 80F there on Friday.

Models continue to show the upper ridge pushing eastward and breaking down over the weekend with another significant front approaching the coast by early next week. Confidence in the overall pattern is high due to strong model agreement, but, of course, at this range there will be uncertainties in the strength/timing. -Spilde

03/18Z TAFS...Along the coast and just offshore, MVFR ceilings are mostly confined north of Cape Blanco, with VFR ceilings for most locations south of Cape Blanco. However localized LIFR ceilings are being observed in Gold Beach and Brookings. The trend is for ceilings to improve during the day as the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere dry out, with VFR ceilings expected between 20-21z. Guidance shows drying to continue tonight with breezy northeast winds and a dry air mass at 925 mb winds (approximately 2500 ft) tonight into Wednesday, which should be sufficient enough to keep low clouds and fog from developing. However patchy fog cannot be ruled out in the deeper valleys near and at the coast towards 14z.

Inland west of the Cascades, plenty of cloud cover remains as of this writing, but the trend is for the cloud cover to gradually dissipate as a drier air mass moves into the area. Medford is bordering on IFR and MVFR ceilings, but this should only last for couple more hours with ceilings improving to MVFR, then VFR.
However, the terrain will likely remain at least partly obscured until 21-22z. Roseburg will remain VFR with the surrounding terrain remaining partly obscured until 22z.

VFR ceilings will continue into most of the overnight period, then will be trickier late tonight. Skies will remain clear. However, due to existing moisture from the recent rains, it's more likely for fog and low clouds to form in Roseburg late tonight, then burning off late Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, dry northeast winds are expected in the Rogue Valley not far from the surface which could be enough to keep fog from forming. However, we could not rule out patchy fog at Medford with a reduction in vertical visibility towards 14z and this has been added to the TAF. Any lower conditions at Medford should last only a couple of hours with VFR conditions returning.

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, however the higher terrain will remain partly obscured until 22z. -Petrucelli

Updated 800 AM October 3, 2023...Seas and north winds will increase this afternoon and evening a thermal trough strengthens. These winds will increase further tonight and Wednesday. Winds will be strong and gusty across the waters, with strongest winds and highest seas from Cape Blanco south.

North winds may approach gale force strength from near Gold Beach southward, especially across the waters beyond 3 nm from shore. Seas will be wind driven and steep to very steep with highest seas from just north of Cape Blanco southward. Seas are expected to be near 10 to 12 feet in the outer waters from Cape Blanco south. Some of these higher seas are expected into the inner zone south of Cape Blanco, mainly beyond 3 nm from shore. North of Cape Blanco, expect mainly steep seas and gusty winds.

Winds will gradually lower Wednesday night through Thursday but expect lingering steep to very steep seas through at least Thursday morning. Lighter winds and seas will develop on Friday and Saturday.
Another low will likely be impacting the Pacific Northwest towards Sunday into Monday with gusty south winds and elevated west seas.

/Issued 319 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023/


Radar is still picking up on some showers in clear air mode this morning. Nothing too heavy as it's barely showing up, but a few showers remain possible this morning. Stations along the coast are also observing fog with lower visibilities in Gold Beach and Brookings. It also appears all these stations are observing a light drizzle with weak synoptic lift over head. Heading into the day, upper level heights will build, which will lead to clearing skies into the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Low to mid level flow will turn north easterly along the coast and over valleys west of the Cascades. This will lead to some drier air moving in to these locations.

Later tonight, fog will be in the cards with some favorable conditions developing. We are a little early in the season to be a slam dunk, but the lingering surface moisture from recent rainfall and clearing skies should lead to a favorable development for fog formation in the valleys later tonight.

Temperatures will trend warmer Wednesday towards the end of the week into the weekend. In fact, we'll be right around normal and up to 10 degrees above normal for early October. Some may consider this the last gasp of summer as temperature push towards 90 here in Medford.

Looking towards the start of next week, models are anticipating another system hitting the Pacific Northwest. The NBM drops temperatures about 10 degrees between Sunday and Monday with the probability of precipitation increasing to about 50 percent.
Conversely, there must be ensembles members which are slowing down the front with this system. The GFS/ECMWF denotes the surface cold front arriving later Monday night. In any case, prepare for some more weather around the start of next week with a cold front and more precipitation passing through. Snow levels should drop lower down to ~7000 feet behind the front.


03/12Z TAFS
Lower ceilings and covering locations west of the Cascades with some LIFR ceilings and visibilities along the coast. Look for some IFR ceilings farther inland this morning as pockets of fog develop in the valley. Dew point depressions are near 2 degrees, so we're not anticipating anything really dense. In any case, clearer skies should develop through the day as some drier air moves in.

Later tonight, IFR fog will be a concern with plenty of moisture lingering in the valleys and clearing skies overnight.


Updated 245 AM October 3, 2023
Seas will be on the increase this afternoon as a thermal trough strengthens. Winds will be fairly strong and even approach gale force strength closer to Pt.
St. George. Seas will be wind driven and pushing towards 10 feet in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco. Some of those higher seas could bleed into the inner zone within 10 nm from shore. Seas decrease closer to Thursday as high pressure weakens over the waters Thursday evening.

Another low will likely be impacting the Pacific Northwest towards Sunday into Monday.



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-370-376.

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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KLKV LAKE COUNTY,OR 3 sm34 minN 1010 smOvercast61°F45°F55%30.20

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Medford, OR,

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