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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 918 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.

ANZ300 918 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure remains centered over the southeastern states tonight and moves slowly offshore Thursday and Thursday night. A weak cold front then approaches on Friday and passes through during the night, weakening further nearby on Saturday. A series of lows will then impact the area from Sunday into Tuesday.

FXUS61 KALY 292338 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 638 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Fair weather and chilly temperatures continue tonight. High pressure along the East Coast will bring tranquil conditions and slightly milder temperatures for Thursday. A fast moving storm system will bring rain for Friday, possibly mixed with snow across some higher terrain areas.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Clouds have cleared across most of the forecast area and remain only over far northern areas. Low clouds are approaching from the west and will become at least broken again across most of the forecast area. Clearing may linger most of the night farther to the south east over northwestern Connecticut.

Overnight, temperatures will fall to near seasonal normals, with morning lows in the upper 10s to mid 20s across the region.
However, cloudy areas will may be slightly milder than forecast while areas that remain clear may radiate to lower values than forecast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Building high pressure over the Carolinas and southwest flow in the low and mid-levels will bring a return to more seasonable temperatures and continued dry weather on Thursday. A weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest on Thursday night, but wash out with rain/snow showers limited to areas of lake enhancement over the western slopes of the Adirondacks.

A more robust southern stream shortwave and associated surface low will track northeastward across the region Friday.
Precipitation type is still largely expected to be widespread rain, with snow limited to higher elevations north of I-90. As the system exits, some precipitation may linger through Friday night into Saturday morning, although additional chances for precipitation will be possible through the day on Saturday as additional upper vorticity impulses track northeastward with the flow over the region.

Temperatures through the period look to remain near seasonal normals, with highs in the mid to upper 30 in high terrain and low to mid 40s at lower elevations Thursday through Saturday.
Nighttime lows look to stay in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the region Thursday night through Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Unsettled weather expected during the period Sunday through Wednesday. Upper energy approaches from the west Sunday and the upper dynamics, low level forcing and moisture will result in mostly a cold rain across the region with higher elevation snow or a mix of rain and snow. Highs Sunday in the 40s with some upper 30s higher terrain.

Steadier precipitation exits through the day Monday as brief short wave flat upper ridging tracks through ahead of trailing upper energy, again approaching from the west within broad upper troughing in eastern North America. Broad +PNA in western North America supports this overall upper pattern, again, creating broad upper troughing in eastern North America, and continued unsettled weather.
There is some spread in long range guidance/ensembles and some deeper cold advection could build into our region through Sunday night and Monday.

Loose consensus in long range guidance/ensembles that it will remain cloudy Monday with steadier precipitation decreasing in coverage.
There are some hints in a minority of sources of guidance that another organized upper impulse, low level forcing and deep moisture that could produce another period of steadier and heavier precipitation Monday, with more snow than rain, but we will watch how all the guidance changes and adjusts as we get closer to next week. Very subtle changes in timing and storm track could result in more snow than rain in our region Monday into Tuesday but too early to tell. Highs Monday in the 40s with upper 30s in higher terrain, but colder if the deeper cold air does build in.

Broad consensus that unsettled weather continues Tuesday, with an organized system somewhere along the eastern U.S. coast. There is a lot of spread in long range guidance/ensembles and the primary upper dynamics, low level forcing and moisture could track mainly south of our region, but there are some members suggesting a more northerly track. So, keeping chances of rain in most areas Tuesday into Tuesday night with snow or a mix in higher elevations, but again, stay tuned about the details of where any snow and rain may set up.
Highs Tuesday in the lower to mid 40s with lower to mid 30s higher terrain, or colder depending on the storm track.

Improving weather Wednesday with some potential lake effect clouds in our region, and scattered lake effect snow shower activity into the southern Adirondacks, maybe isolated to scattered upslope showers and snow showers into the southern Green Mountains and Berkshires. Highs Wednesday in the mid 30s to around 40 and upper 20s to lower 30s higher terrain.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Tonight, Starting generally clear at the TAF sites but sky coverage should increase to BKN or even OVC, but ceiling heights should remain VFR near 5kft. These clouds look to linger until 12 - 15 UTC before enough mixing ensues to erode the clouds leading to mainly sunny skies after 15 UTC at all the TAF sites thanks to high pressure building over the Northeast.

South to southwest winds at 3-7kts tonight. Winds then veer back to the southwest by 12-15 UTC Thursday and then will be sustained near 7kts with some gusts to 15 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Hudson
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Wed -- 03:57 AM EST     3.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:36 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:14 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:04 PM EST     4.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:03 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Coxsackie
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Wed -- 05:05 AM EST     3.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:37 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:47 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:16 PM EST     4.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:33 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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