Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashland, OR
December 6, 2023 10:47 AM PST (18:47 UTC)
Sunrise 7:23AM Sunset 4:40PM Moonrise 12:48AM Moonset 1:23PM
PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 902 Am Pst Wed Dec 6 2023
.hazardous seas warning in effect until 10 am pst this morning...
Today..Northern portion, N wind 15 to 20 kt...backing to sw 10 to 15 kt early in the afternoon, then...backing to S late afternoon. Brookings southward, nw wind 15 to 25 kt...backing to S 10 to 15 kt late afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 13 to 16 ft at 16 seconds. Rain through the day. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 10 to 20 kt...veering to sw 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 11 to 13 ft at 15 seconds. Showers and chance of tstms.
Thu..S wind 20 to 25 kt...veering to sw in the morning, then... Veering to W early in the afternoon... Becoming nw 15 to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, sw wind 15 to 25 kt... Veering to W 15 kt early in the afternoon, then...veering to nw late in the afternoon. Wind waves W 5 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 10 to 12 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to N after midnight. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 10 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. Showers.
Fri..NE wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to N in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds. Rain likely through the day.
Fri night..E wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds in the evening... Becoming less than 2 ft. SWell W 7 to 9 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of rain.
Sat..S wind 25 kt...easing to 20 kt in the evening, then... Backing to se after midnight. Wind waves sw 6 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 11 seconds... Building to 14 ft at 13 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft.
Sun..NE wind 10 kt...backing to n. Wind waves W 4 ft at 6 seconds...shifting to the N 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 12 seconds...subsiding to 9 ft at 11 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft.
.hazardous seas warning in effect until 10 am pst this morning...
Today..Northern portion, N wind 15 to 20 kt...backing to sw 10 to 15 kt early in the afternoon, then...backing to S late afternoon. Brookings southward, nw wind 15 to 25 kt...backing to S 10 to 15 kt late afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 13 to 16 ft at 16 seconds. Rain through the day. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 10 to 20 kt...veering to sw 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 11 to 13 ft at 15 seconds. Showers and chance of tstms.
Thu..S wind 20 to 25 kt...veering to sw in the morning, then... Veering to W early in the afternoon... Becoming nw 15 to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, sw wind 15 to 25 kt... Veering to W 15 kt early in the afternoon, then...veering to nw late in the afternoon. Wind waves W 5 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 10 to 12 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to N after midnight. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 10 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. Showers.
Fri..NE wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to N in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds. Rain likely through the day.
Fri night..E wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds in the evening... Becoming less than 2 ft. SWell W 7 to 9 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of rain.
Sat..S wind 25 kt...easing to 20 kt in the evening, then... Backing to se after midnight. Wind waves sw 6 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 11 seconds... Building to 14 ft at 13 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft.
Sun..NE wind 10 kt...backing to n. Wind waves W 4 ft at 6 seconds...shifting to the N 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 12 seconds...subsiding to 9 ft at 11 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft.
PZZ300 902 Am Pst Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Very large and very steep seas will gradually diminish through today, with winds becoming north then west on the back side of a passing front. Winds will diminish late Thursday into Friday, although steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. The next front arrives Saturday, with gusty south winds and very steep wind- driven seas. Conditions improve through the weekend, although gusty north winds are possible as a thermal trough develops along the coast.
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Very large and very steep seas will gradually diminish through today, with winds becoming north then west on the back side of a passing front. Winds will diminish late Thursday into Friday, although steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. The next front arrives Saturday, with gusty south winds and very steep wind- driven seas. Conditions improve through the weekend, although gusty north winds are possible as a thermal trough develops along the coast.
Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KMFR 061754 AAA AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1054 AM PST Wed Dec 6 2023
Updated aviation discussion
DISCUSSION
Visibilities in the Rogue valley near Medford are finally rising as the front brings rain into the region, along with mixing. Winds ahead of the front are increasing on schedule, with gusts in the Shasta valley at Weed gusting to near 45 mph this morning. Winds are gusty on the ridge tops west of the Cascades this morning, with gusts to 61 mph at Onion Mt, but the strongest gusts are not expected to surface down to the valleys.
Current forecast and advisories and watches look on track, but will re-evaluate whether the winter weather advisories need to be bumped to warnings when the newer model QPF arrives. -Sven
AVIATION
06/18Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR in dense fog in the Medford (KMFR) area this morning, along with areas of fog in other nearby valleys, will improve soon, likely scouring out as the front approaches from the west. This front, marked by a band of moderate to heavy rain, lies just to the west of Medford. The front and the precipitation will slowly push to the east today, with precipitation overspreading the entire area by late this afternoon. Along with this rain, expect MVFR/IFR conditions and significant terrain obscuration, and gusty winds over ridgetops and across the East Side are expected, and low level wind shear is possible. Lower flight conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF period, with little improvement by early Thursday morning. -BPN/Schaaf
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 AM PST Wed Dec 6 2023/
DISCUSSION...The overall forecast remains on track this morning.
Observations this morning vary a bit across the region. A stalled front remains draped across Coos and Curry Counties and into Douglas County from Roseburg westward, and this is resulting in moderate to heavy precipitation in these areas. Dry conditions continue east and south of this front with breezy winds of 25 to 35 mph common across the higher terrain and in the southern end of the Shasta Valley. Meanwhile, stable conditions in valleys west of the Cascades have brought the return of fog with low visibilities. A look at area webcams shows the poorest visibilities are here in the Rogue Valley from Ashland to Central Point and Eagle Point, and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through the remainder of the morning.
Current conditions will remain largely unchanged until around sunrise this morning which is when the front finally makes a more noticeable push eastward. In the meantime, with the front remaining stalled over the next several hours, moderate to heavy rainfall will continue on already saturated soils. This area is expected to receive around 1-3 inches through this morning, and there could be some ponding of water on roadways again with minor flooding in areas of poor drainage. This will likely result in a another bump/rise in area creeks, streams and rivers (some of which could reach bankfull again, though none are currently forecast to reach flood stage). As such, we are maintaining the areal flood watch for western Douglas, Coos, Curry and western Josephine counties through this afternoon.
Once the front starts pushing eastward later this morning, moderate rainfall will spread inland with a high likelihood of rain for most areas (70-100% chance). Rain amounts for the valleys west of the Cascades of half an inch to an inch are expected today, while areas east of the Cascades, in the Shasta Valley and over NE California should be in the 0.25-0.50 inch range, though some of this will be snow by early Thursday morning. In addition to the rain, winds will increase late this morning and into the afternoon, especially east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley. Midlevel winds (700 mb)
will increase to 45-55 kts as this front passes through, resulting in advisory level winds in these areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for this through this evening.
Snow levels will hover around 5500-6000 ft through this afternoon, limiting any winter impacts to the highest peaks through then. Snow levels lower to around 4500-5000 ft behind the front late this afternoon through this evening, and this is when we expect some winter impacts to begin up around Crater Lake with around 3 to 5 inches in the forecast. The bulk of the accumulating snow, however, occurs tonight through Thursday night as another, colder Pacific disturbance moves onshore. There remains a high probability of 6-12 inches of snow over the Siskiyous and more than 12 inches over the Cascades above 5000 feet from Lake of the Woods northward. Snow levels continue to lower to around 3500-4000 ft overnight into Thursday morning, so some snow may reach to near Union Creek and/or Toketee Falls as well as the Siskiyou Summit, with snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches expected for these areas. The highway 97 corridor north of Klamath Falls (mainly Chiloquin northward) could see 3-6 inches of snow. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued to cover locations in western Siskiyou County, the Warners and Winter Rim as well as the Siskiyous and Cascades, all above 3500 ft, and is in effect this afternoon through early Friday morning. Snow levels continue to drop to around 2500 feet by Friday morning, but precipitation will be ending by then.
Precipitation tapers off by Friday morning as a brief upper ridge builds into the region and we'll see another break in the weather for Friday. The break is short-lived, however, with the next system arriving Saturday morning/afternoon. Snow levels will quickly rise to around 6000-7000 ft with this warm front Saturday morning and afternoon, so winter impacts should be limited with this front. We could see another round of strong winds as models indicate 700 mb winds around 50 to 60 kt. Once this front passes through, the weather will quiet down as a large scale ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and essentially blocks the storm door. There could be a few weak systems that pass through early next week, but once precipitation tapers off Sunday, generally quiet weather is expected for the first half of next week. /BR-y
MARINE
Updated 200 AM Wednesday December 6, 2023
Very large and very steep seas will gradually diminish through today, with winds becoming north on the back side of a passing front. Models are suggesting the passage of a series of compact surface lows late tonight into Thursday morning, and this could produce brief periods of strong winds and sharp wind shifts. Winds will then diminish late Thursday into Friday, although steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. The next front arrives Saturday, with gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas, and about a 40 percent chance of winds reaching gale force. Conditions improve through the weekend as high pressure builds overhead, although gusty north winds are possible as a thermal trough develops along the coast. -BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ029>031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.
Flood Watch until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021>024.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ027-028.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday above 3500 feet for CAZ080-082-083.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ084-085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1054 AM PST Wed Dec 6 2023
Updated aviation discussion
DISCUSSION
Visibilities in the Rogue valley near Medford are finally rising as the front brings rain into the region, along with mixing. Winds ahead of the front are increasing on schedule, with gusts in the Shasta valley at Weed gusting to near 45 mph this morning. Winds are gusty on the ridge tops west of the Cascades this morning, with gusts to 61 mph at Onion Mt, but the strongest gusts are not expected to surface down to the valleys.
Current forecast and advisories and watches look on track, but will re-evaluate whether the winter weather advisories need to be bumped to warnings when the newer model QPF arrives. -Sven
AVIATION
06/18Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR in dense fog in the Medford (KMFR) area this morning, along with areas of fog in other nearby valleys, will improve soon, likely scouring out as the front approaches from the west. This front, marked by a band of moderate to heavy rain, lies just to the west of Medford. The front and the precipitation will slowly push to the east today, with precipitation overspreading the entire area by late this afternoon. Along with this rain, expect MVFR/IFR conditions and significant terrain obscuration, and gusty winds over ridgetops and across the East Side are expected, and low level wind shear is possible. Lower flight conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF period, with little improvement by early Thursday morning. -BPN/Schaaf
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 AM PST Wed Dec 6 2023/
DISCUSSION...The overall forecast remains on track this morning.
Observations this morning vary a bit across the region. A stalled front remains draped across Coos and Curry Counties and into Douglas County from Roseburg westward, and this is resulting in moderate to heavy precipitation in these areas. Dry conditions continue east and south of this front with breezy winds of 25 to 35 mph common across the higher terrain and in the southern end of the Shasta Valley. Meanwhile, stable conditions in valleys west of the Cascades have brought the return of fog with low visibilities. A look at area webcams shows the poorest visibilities are here in the Rogue Valley from Ashland to Central Point and Eagle Point, and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through the remainder of the morning.
Current conditions will remain largely unchanged until around sunrise this morning which is when the front finally makes a more noticeable push eastward. In the meantime, with the front remaining stalled over the next several hours, moderate to heavy rainfall will continue on already saturated soils. This area is expected to receive around 1-3 inches through this morning, and there could be some ponding of water on roadways again with minor flooding in areas of poor drainage. This will likely result in a another bump/rise in area creeks, streams and rivers (some of which could reach bankfull again, though none are currently forecast to reach flood stage). As such, we are maintaining the areal flood watch for western Douglas, Coos, Curry and western Josephine counties through this afternoon.
Once the front starts pushing eastward later this morning, moderate rainfall will spread inland with a high likelihood of rain for most areas (70-100% chance). Rain amounts for the valleys west of the Cascades of half an inch to an inch are expected today, while areas east of the Cascades, in the Shasta Valley and over NE California should be in the 0.25-0.50 inch range, though some of this will be snow by early Thursday morning. In addition to the rain, winds will increase late this morning and into the afternoon, especially east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley. Midlevel winds (700 mb)
will increase to 45-55 kts as this front passes through, resulting in advisory level winds in these areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for this through this evening.
Snow levels will hover around 5500-6000 ft through this afternoon, limiting any winter impacts to the highest peaks through then. Snow levels lower to around 4500-5000 ft behind the front late this afternoon through this evening, and this is when we expect some winter impacts to begin up around Crater Lake with around 3 to 5 inches in the forecast. The bulk of the accumulating snow, however, occurs tonight through Thursday night as another, colder Pacific disturbance moves onshore. There remains a high probability of 6-12 inches of snow over the Siskiyous and more than 12 inches over the Cascades above 5000 feet from Lake of the Woods northward. Snow levels continue to lower to around 3500-4000 ft overnight into Thursday morning, so some snow may reach to near Union Creek and/or Toketee Falls as well as the Siskiyou Summit, with snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches expected for these areas. The highway 97 corridor north of Klamath Falls (mainly Chiloquin northward) could see 3-6 inches of snow. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued to cover locations in western Siskiyou County, the Warners and Winter Rim as well as the Siskiyous and Cascades, all above 3500 ft, and is in effect this afternoon through early Friday morning. Snow levels continue to drop to around 2500 feet by Friday morning, but precipitation will be ending by then.
Precipitation tapers off by Friday morning as a brief upper ridge builds into the region and we'll see another break in the weather for Friday. The break is short-lived, however, with the next system arriving Saturday morning/afternoon. Snow levels will quickly rise to around 6000-7000 ft with this warm front Saturday morning and afternoon, so winter impacts should be limited with this front. We could see another round of strong winds as models indicate 700 mb winds around 50 to 60 kt. Once this front passes through, the weather will quiet down as a large scale ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and essentially blocks the storm door. There could be a few weak systems that pass through early next week, but once precipitation tapers off Sunday, generally quiet weather is expected for the first half of next week. /BR-y
MARINE
Updated 200 AM Wednesday December 6, 2023
Very large and very steep seas will gradually diminish through today, with winds becoming north on the back side of a passing front. Models are suggesting the passage of a series of compact surface lows late tonight into Thursday morning, and this could produce brief periods of strong winds and sharp wind shifts. Winds will then diminish late Thursday into Friday, although steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. The next front arrives Saturday, with gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas, and about a 40 percent chance of winds reaching gale force. Conditions improve through the weekend as high pressure builds overhead, although gusty north winds are possible as a thermal trough develops along the coast. -BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ029>031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.
Flood Watch until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021>024.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ027-028.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday above 3500 feet for CAZ080-082-083.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ084-085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMFR ROGUE VALLEY INTL MEDFORD,OR | 14 sm | 54 min | calm | 2 sm | Overcast | Mist | 48°F | 46°F | 93% | 29.83 |
Wind History from MFR
(wind in knots)Brookings
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:54 AM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM PST 6.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:30 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 01:21 PM PST 2.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM PST Moonset
Wed -- 04:45 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:44 PM PST 4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:54 AM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM PST 6.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:30 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 01:21 PM PST 2.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM PST Moonset
Wed -- 04:45 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:44 PM PST 4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.8 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 2.7 |
| 3 am |
| 3.6 |
| 4 am |
| 4.7 |
| 5 am |
| 5.6 |
| 6 am |
| 6.1 |
| 7 am |
| 6.3 |
| 8 am |
| 6 |
| 9 am |
| 5.4 |
| 10 am |
| 4.5 |
| 11 am |
| 3.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 4 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.7 |
Crescent City
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:54 AM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 06:48 AM PST 6.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 01:17 PM PST 2.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM PST Moonset
Wed -- 04:46 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:43 PM PST 4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:54 AM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 06:48 AM PST 6.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 01:17 PM PST 2.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM PST Moonset
Wed -- 04:46 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:43 PM PST 4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Crescent City, California, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.8 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 2.7 |
| 3 am |
| 3.7 |
| 4 am |
| 4.7 |
| 5 am |
| 5.6 |
| 6 am |
| 6.1 |
| 7 am |
| 6.3 |
| 8 am |
| 6 |
| 9 am |
| 5.3 |
| 10 am |
| 4.5 |
| 11 am |
| 3.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 4 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.6 |
Medford, OR,
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