Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:13PM Friday September 20, 2019 2:49 AM PDT (09:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:59PMMoonset 12:12PM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 212 Am Pdt Fri Sep 20 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will persist through Saturday. Gusty north winds will lead to steep seas south of port orford into Saturday evening. Conditions will improve Saturday night into Sunday as a frontal system moves through. However, the thermal trough will quickly redevelop behind this front on Monday with strong, gusty north winds that could reach gale force at times Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, OR
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location: 42.2, -122.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 200421
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
921 pm pdt Thu sep 19 2019

Update
An update has been sent for the forecast from this evening through
Friday evening. The main change was to increase cloud cover for
tonight and, especially Friday morning, lingering into the
afternoon across portions of the area due to a shortwave trough
moving through from the north. Some precipitation potential was
also added along and near the oregon cascades.

Discussion
Took a close look a low temperatures and frost potential for
tonight into Friday morning. Overall, the majority of the guidance
suggests high dewpoints and increasing cloudiness moving in from
the north tonight through Friday morning will limit radiational
cooling over much of the area of concern. Still, decided to
maintain caution in the forecast by keeping the lows on the lower
end of what appears possible tonight. All in all, there may very
well be some patchy frost in areas of concern in the klamath and
tulelake basins, but don't think it will be any more than what
we've seen on the 2 coldest nights already observed in the last
10 days. Also, duration should be less than the 3 hours at our
below 36f that is usually needed for a frost advisory. Most
likely, temperatures will come in slightly warmer than what's
forecast in the mentioned area, but it's better to be prepared
than not.

Otherwise, in addition to increasing cloud cover for the next 24
hours, some precipitation mention has been added to the forecast
centered on Friday morning mainly along and near the oregon
cascades from mount mcloughlin northward as a shortwave trough
moves through in northerly flow. Btl

Aviation For the 20 00z tafs...VFR conditions with scattered
terrain obscurations prevail this afternoon and evening. Scattered
showers east of the cascades will continue into the evening, and
diminish in coverage after sunset. Along the coast, marine stratus
is expected to develop with CIGS lowering to MVFR, then to ifr
overnight. Inland west of the cascades, recent moisture will allow
for MVFR CIGS to develop late tonight. East of the cascades, much
will depend on how much clearing occurs. OverallVFR conditions are
expected, but if enough clearing occurs there could be patchy areas
of fog development, including at klmt. Any lower conditions are
expected to improve toVFR later Friday morning. Br-y

Marine Updated 830 pm pdt Thursday 19 september 2019... High
pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will persist
through Saturday night. Gusty north winds will lead to steep seas
hazardous to small craft south of port orford into Saturday evening.

The strongest winds are expected during the afternoons and evenings.

Conditions improve Saturday night into Sunday as the thermal trough
pattern gets interrupted ahead of the next front expected Sunday.

Winds will briefly turn southerly ahead of this front, but are
expected to remain below advisory level. Expect a period of showers
and possible thunderstorms as the front moves inland Sunday
afternoon and evening. Seas will also build with this frontal
passage as northwest swell moves into the waters. Monday into next
week, the thermal trough quickly redevelops, bringing the return of
northerly winds (possible gales) and steep wind driven seas,
especially south of CAPE blanco. Br-y

Prev discussion issued 244 pm pdt Thu sep 19 2019
discussion... 2:30 pm satellite imagery is showing clouds all
across southern oregon and northern california with a few clear
spots along the oregon coast. The larger cumulonimbus clouds
circulating around the low continue to push eastward and southward
away from modoc county. A few of the clouds in klamath, lake and
modoc counties have started to tower a bit, but no lightning
strikes have been recorded in our forecast area as of yet.

Although the thunderstorm threat will continue for the next few
hours, it will diminish as the low pushes away from the area and
things begin to stabilize. The real concern for tonight is any
clearing in regards to the clouds. With the amount of clouds in
the area right now, I have less confidence in significant
clearing. This has caused me to raise temperature forecasts a few
degrees across the area. That being said, we are still expecting
patchy to somewhat abundant frost east of the cascades tonight.

Many locations east of the cascades are already at their normal
end of the growing season (i.E. Crescent, alturas, lakeview).

Other areas, like klamath falls, despite being near the end of
their growing season haven't quite made it to the finish line yet.

Although it is normal to see frost at this time of year, the
aforementioned reasoning for low confidence is why we are going
with patchy frost in this area. This precludes me from issuing a
frost advisory. Subsequent shifts, however, may decide to issue a
frost advisory; especially if the cloud cover diminishes in the
next few hours.

We then begin a slow warming trend on Friday and Saturday with no
precipitation expected either day. Then, another low comes
through the pacific northwest--this one best classified as an
inside slider type of low. What this means is that on Sunday,
we'll receive some light to locally moderate rainfall before it
moves away from the area on Sunday night where we dry out by
Monday. Snow levels will be around 7000 to 8000 feet, so expect
the highest of the cascades to see some snow, and possibly even
the crater lake rim, but don't expect it to be that much.

Then, we start moving back to a slight warming trend with overall
dry weather through the remainder of the week. Confidence in the
forecast is relatively low as both the GFS and ec ensembles have
large swings in conditions (from areas of high pressure, to
general troughing). Most of the ensemble members show a troughing
scenario, so have capped the warming in the extended; and then
showed a trough coming in by next weekend which could produce some
rainfall for us. Keep an eye on this forecast because things will
change greatly in the next 8 to 10 days. -schaaf

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Sunday for pzz356-376.

Btl mnf bms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 84 mi49 min N 7 G 9.9

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR15 mi56 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F46°F83%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3W4NW8N4NW9W6NW9NW9NW6NW4NW3E3SW3SE4W3Calm
1 day agoN4CalmCalmCalmSW3S3CalmCalmNW4NW3NE5NE4N6W5NE9NE11N4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5N53N6NE6NE6N7N8NW7CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:35 AM PDT     5.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:51 AM PDT     2.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:18 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:58 PM PDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:06 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:12 PM PDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.73.74.5554.74.13.53.133.23.84.75.56.16.36.15.44.33.22.11.31

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:34 AM PDT     5.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:47 AM PDT     2.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:17 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:57 PM PDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:06 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:08 PM PDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.83.74.5554.74.13.53.133.23.94.75.56.16.36.15.44.33.121.31

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.