Saturday, February29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:00PM Friday February 28, 2020 10:30 PM PST (06:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:23AMMoonset 11:00PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 806 Pm Pst Fri Feb 28 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A cold front will move through the waters this evening. Winds are weak with the front. But, steep seas will build to a peak Saturday due to a long period and a shorter period northwest swell. North winds will increase as a thermal trough develops early Sunday. This will cause steep seas to persist through Sunday evening. Conditions will improve on Monday, but be unsettled during the rest of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, OR
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location: 42.2, -122.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 290501 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 901 PM PST Fri Feb 28 2020

DISCUSSION. A cold front is progressing through the forecast area tonight from northwest to southeast. Winds have recently increased in Medford (gusting to 21 mph), and this likely represents the frontal passage. Temperatures in the Coast Range this evening are 20 degrees colder than 24 hours ago, representing a much colder air mass moving in. Tomorrow will feature colder than normal temperatures for this first time in 11 days. As a result, the weather tomorrow will feel markedly different than most days over the past couple weeks.

Precipitation with the front is minimal so far with less than 0.1 inches of rain falling in the Umpqua Basin and coast north of Cape Blanco. We're not expecting much in the way of additional precipitation along the front. A better chance of precipitation will arrive Saturday as the air mass becomes unstable and showers form. Shortwave energy will swing southeast into the forecast area during the day Saturday, and showers will increase in coverage into the afternoon. Given such cold air aloft, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms and small hail in most areas west of the Cascades minus Jackson County. Snow levels dip to around 2000 feet Saturday morning and don't rise much after that. By the time showers diminish Saturday night, the mountains will see 1 to 3 inches of snowfall. The northwesterly flow tomorrow in combination with low snow levels could bring periods of snow showers to Canyon Mountain Pass on Interstate 5, so we'll further evaluate that situation and coordinate appropriately with partner agencies like ODOT. The most likely time for any minor winter weather impact there would be late Saturday afternoon as road temperatures cool with some showers ongoing.

Please see the previous forecast discussion below for more details on this change in weather and additional precipitation chances late next week.

AVIATION. For the 29/06Z TAF Cycle . Offshore, along the coast and inland into the Umpqua valley. With a front having moved inland, except lingering near Brookings, ceilings are mainly a mix of VFR and MVFR. An unstable air mass will follow Saturday through Saturday evening with occasional showers, isolated thunderstorms, and a continued mix of VFR and MVFR.

Remainder of inland westside. VFR conditions will continue, though with areas of MVFR ceilings locally bordering on IFR, especially along the Umpqua Divide and the Oregon Cascades, as a front weakens. Mountain obscurations will be most common in the early morning from around 10z to 16z.

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gusty winds are expected in the afternoon and early evening, including at Klamath Falls. -DW

MARINE. Updated 815 PM PST Friday 28 Feb 2020 . A cold front will move through the coastal waters this evening. Winds with the front will be fairly weak. A mix of a long period and shorter period northwest swells will build into the area with steep seas building to a peak of 12 to 14 feet on Saturday. By early Saturday morning, all areas will likely be affected by steep seas. These steep seas will then persist through Sunday evening. Also on Sunday, a thermal trough begins to reestablish. Thus, swell subsides on Sunday but gusty north winds will produce steep to very steep wind- driven and fresh swell dominated seas. These winds and seas will be highest south of Gold Beach in the typical thermal trough pattern.

Conditions will improve for Monday. But, winds and seas likely increase again late Tuesday with high and steep seas possible for portions of the waters south of Cape Blanco. A series of fronts may produce periods of small craft advisory level conditions through the week with the highest probability for the southern waters again. Confidence in the details for this period is low to moderate with differences in the strength and timing of the individual systems during this period. -DW

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 356 PM PST Fri Feb 28 2020/

Corrected time for Aviation Discussion.

SHORT TERM . This afternoon through Monday night . Temperatures are in the 60s across most of the valleys this afternoon and there are even some readings of 70+ in the sheltered valleys of Siskiyou County. The exception is the coast, where persistent onshore flow with low clouds, fog, and some drizzle has resulted in temperatures only in the upper 40s, and in the Umpqua Basin in Douglas County where the cooler air has filtered inland leading to temperatures in the 50s.

Temperatures will again fall rapidly this evening in areas that are mostly cloud free. However, a cold front moving inland from it's current position west of the coastal waters will cause conditions to become mostly cloudy by midnight from the Oregon Cascades westward. Therefore, forecast low temperatures have been raised for tonight due to the expected insulating affect of the cloud cover.

Saturday and Sunday will be a snap back to the fact that it's still technically winter. Highs that have been around 10 degrees above normal yesterday and today will be 5-10 degrees below normal Saturday and Sunday afternoons with 40s expected for highs across most inland areas (though 30s for portions of the east side and colder in the mountains). This change in the weather will be brought about by a cold front moving through that's being followed by a -35C cold pool at 500MB, -16C at 700MB, and -6C at 850MB by Sunday morning. With such a rapid transition to a colder air mass we expect showers and even a possibility of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening over the coastal waters and across the west side minus Jackson and eastern Siskiyou County.

It should be noted that this type of air mass is the kind that can bring small hail or graupel to many locations both inland and along the coast. Thus, don't be surprised to see this mixed in with heavier showers Saturday afternoon and evening even in Jackson County. Snow levels are likely to be in the 2,500 to 3,500 foot range, for the most part, with less than 2 inches of snow expected.

Sunday morning snow levels fall to near 1,000 feet and there are likely to be some showers still across the west side, so be on the lookout for some flakes to fly at lower elevations then. Amounts will be a dusting or less.

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday temperatures will rebound as high pressure generally returns, though some weak frontal activity across northern Coos and Douglas counties could yield some light rainfall there, at times. ~BTL

LONG TERM . Tuesday through Friday . Upper level ridging will be in control of the area Tuesday through Thursday, but the main belt of westerlies is expected to lie just north of the region, and some of the waves traversing this swift flow aloft could skirt by the northern portions of the area. Therefore, while most of the region will remain dry, the coast north of Coos Bay, northern Douglas County, and the Cascades north of Crater Lake could see some light shower activity as they pass. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies and daytime temperatures around 5 degrees above seasonal normals. That being said, we do expect dry air during this time as well, and as a result, overnight lows may drop well below normal for this time of year.

The pattern is expected to change late in the week, with an upper level trough digging in offshore by Thursday, then making a slow progression inland Thursday night into Friday. This will mark a move towards more active weather for southern Oregon and northern California, as shown in the latest March outlook from the CPC. Over the past several runs, model suites have suggested a slightly slower arrival of what appears to be the first of several systems, along with slightly warmer temperatures of the initial air masses. This has resulted in some higher snow levels and the delayed onset of precipitation when compared to previous forecasts, an altogether not uncommon occurrence with pattern shifts such as this one. Have trended the forecast timing towards these latest suites, but suspect we'll see some further changes over the coming days as the models hone in and better resolve the pattern shift. -BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 PM PST Sunday for PZZ356. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 84 mi43 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 50°F1024.2 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 92 mi31 min SW 1.9 G 3.9 47°F 49°F1024.9 hPa (+0.3)42°F

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR15 mi98 minNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds50°F33°F52%1021.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmN3CalmNW7SW6CalmNW116
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1 day agoCalmCalmS3NE3W3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S8CalmE3
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3N3CalmSW4E33

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:46 AM PST     6.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:28 AM PST     1.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:27 PM PST     4.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:59 PM PST     2.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.65.66.26.465.24.132.21.71.72.22.93.84.54.94.94.53.93.22.72.62.83.4

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:45 AM PST     6.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM PST     1.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:26 PM PST     4.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:55 PM PST     2.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.65.66.26.465.14.132.11.71.72.233.84.54.94.94.53.93.22.72.62.83.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.