Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, MI
December 9, 2023 9:07 AM EST (14:07 UTC)
Sunrise 7:57AM Sunset 5:11PM Moonrise 4:25AM Moonset 2:55PM
LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Monday morning...
Early this morning..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Today..South gales to 35 knots veering west to 30 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest gales to 35 knots decreasing to 30 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
.gale warning in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Monday morning...
Early this morning..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Today..South gales to 35 knots veering west to 30 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest gales to 35 knots decreasing to 30 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 091123 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 623 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
There are two sets of impacts that we are focused on in the short term. These impacts are winds today, and then snow shower potential focused on very late tonight and on Sunday.
We will be issuing a Wind Advisory for the entire area through mid- afternoon. Rain showers are now developing over the area as the low level jet out ahead of the incoming cold front is moving through right now. The cold front is back across Central IL marked by a solid line of convective showers and a stark wind shift. We can expect on and off showers until the frontal passage which will be between 12 and 18z across just about all of the area. A rumble of thunder can not be totally ruled out as 925 and 850 mb based LI's are around 0c.
The bigger feature on concern is the wind immediately along and just behind the cold frontal passage. The thought all along has been for some gusty winds with a fairly tight pressure gradient and initial surge of colder air coming in. The trend has been for stronger winds with HRRR mean wind gusts 40-45 mph and Euro ensemble mean winds 40+ mph. These winds will not last especially long, but will be long enough and widespread enough to justify issuing a wind advisory for the entire area.
We should see mainly dry conditions for most of the afternoon behind the sfc front passage. This is due to the short wave ridging that builds in behind the initial wave. This will change then this evening as we see the secondary upper feature, a closed upper low that will rotate into the area. This will fire up a few rain showers initially with the wave.
The showers will transition from rain showers being associated directly with the the low, to more banded lake effect rain and eventually snow showers late tonight and through Sunday with long wave troughing/cyclonic flow in place. The set up for lake effect is marginal at best, with just a chance of some light accumulations on grassy areas considering the recent warmer weather has warmed up pavement temps.
The coldest of the air coming in is as low as about -10C for just a short time centered around the late Sunday time frame. That is sufficient for lake effect with the delta t's around 15-16C. The problem is that even lake modified soundings indicate that the dgz is barely saturated as there is just not that cold of air in the mid and upper levels to help with the convective heights and saturating the dgz. This will really limit the potential for any impactful accumulations, along with sfc temps well into the 30s all day Sunday.
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
Light lake effect snow showers should be winding down Sunday night into Monday morning as the thermal trough axis moves east and inversion heights lower below 5 kft.
An upper low swings through SE Canada Tuesday into Wednesday with troughing extending south into the central Great Lakes but forecast soundings are dry and the polar jet remains north of the area, so we will maintain the dry forecast through Thursday.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 623 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
MVFR conditions with areas of IFR will prevail this morning along with low level wind shear. South and then southwest surface winds will increase with gusts over 30 knots expected this morning and into the afternoon. Conditions will be MVFR into the evening then slowly improve to mostly VFR overnight. Winds will go west and diminish this evening with gusts decreasing below 20 knots.
MARINE
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
We will be hoisting a Gale Warning for the entire nearshore through early this afternoon for a solid, yet short duration event. We will be leaving the existing Small Craft Advisory in effect from the end of the Gale warning at 18z through early Monday morning.
Models have been trending higher with winds near and just behind the frontal passage today. There is good agreement in multiple sets of data that the entire nearshore will see 4-6 hours of Gale criteria being met. It will be going good during the event, and will diminish a bit fairly quickly later this afternoon. Winds will come up again with the next wave moving through later this evening and will hold up through Sunday.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ844>849.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 623 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
There are two sets of impacts that we are focused on in the short term. These impacts are winds today, and then snow shower potential focused on very late tonight and on Sunday.
We will be issuing a Wind Advisory for the entire area through mid- afternoon. Rain showers are now developing over the area as the low level jet out ahead of the incoming cold front is moving through right now. The cold front is back across Central IL marked by a solid line of convective showers and a stark wind shift. We can expect on and off showers until the frontal passage which will be between 12 and 18z across just about all of the area. A rumble of thunder can not be totally ruled out as 925 and 850 mb based LI's are around 0c.
The bigger feature on concern is the wind immediately along and just behind the cold frontal passage. The thought all along has been for some gusty winds with a fairly tight pressure gradient and initial surge of colder air coming in. The trend has been for stronger winds with HRRR mean wind gusts 40-45 mph and Euro ensemble mean winds 40+ mph. These winds will not last especially long, but will be long enough and widespread enough to justify issuing a wind advisory for the entire area.
We should see mainly dry conditions for most of the afternoon behind the sfc front passage. This is due to the short wave ridging that builds in behind the initial wave. This will change then this evening as we see the secondary upper feature, a closed upper low that will rotate into the area. This will fire up a few rain showers initially with the wave.
The showers will transition from rain showers being associated directly with the the low, to more banded lake effect rain and eventually snow showers late tonight and through Sunday with long wave troughing/cyclonic flow in place. The set up for lake effect is marginal at best, with just a chance of some light accumulations on grassy areas considering the recent warmer weather has warmed up pavement temps.
The coldest of the air coming in is as low as about -10C for just a short time centered around the late Sunday time frame. That is sufficient for lake effect with the delta t's around 15-16C. The problem is that even lake modified soundings indicate that the dgz is barely saturated as there is just not that cold of air in the mid and upper levels to help with the convective heights and saturating the dgz. This will really limit the potential for any impactful accumulations, along with sfc temps well into the 30s all day Sunday.
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
Light lake effect snow showers should be winding down Sunday night into Monday morning as the thermal trough axis moves east and inversion heights lower below 5 kft.
An upper low swings through SE Canada Tuesday into Wednesday with troughing extending south into the central Great Lakes but forecast soundings are dry and the polar jet remains north of the area, so we will maintain the dry forecast through Thursday.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 623 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
MVFR conditions with areas of IFR will prevail this morning along with low level wind shear. South and then southwest surface winds will increase with gusts over 30 knots expected this morning and into the afternoon. Conditions will be MVFR into the evening then slowly improve to mostly VFR overnight. Winds will go west and diminish this evening with gusts decreasing below 20 knots.
MARINE
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
We will be hoisting a Gale Warning for the entire nearshore through early this afternoon for a solid, yet short duration event. We will be leaving the existing Small Craft Advisory in effect from the end of the Gale warning at 18z through early Monday morning.
Models have been trending higher with winds near and just behind the frontal passage today. There is good agreement in multiple sets of data that the entire nearshore will see 4-6 hours of Gale criteria being met. It will be going good during the event, and will diminish a bit fairly quickly later this afternoon. Winds will come up again with the next wave moving through later this evening and will hold up through Sunday.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ844>849.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 16 mi | 47 min | SE 17G | 53°F | ||||
| SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI | 23 mi | 67 min | S 6G | 55°F | 29.64 | |||
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 38 mi | 49 min | SSE 16G | 41°F | 29.56 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI | 12 sm | 12 min | S 11G20 | 10 sm | Overcast | 54°F | 52°F | 94% | 29.62 | |
| KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI | 19 sm | 14 min | S 16G26 | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 52°F | 82% | 29.62 |
Wind History from LWA
(wind in knots)
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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