Lawrence, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, MI

June 14, 2024 7:27 AM EDT (11:27 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 9:22 PM
Moonrise 1:09 PM   Moonset 1:06 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Early this morning - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Waves 1 foot or less.

Today - North winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.

Tonight - North winds 10 to 20 knots veering northeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet toward daybreak.

Saturday - East winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.

Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.

Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Monday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ800
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, MI
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 140747 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 347 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Much quieter weather through Saturday

- Hot and Humid Sunday and into Next Week

- A Few Chances for Showers/Thunderstorms Sunday and into Next Week

DISCUSSION
Issued at 347 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

- Much quieter weather through Saturday

High pressure is building in the wake of the cold frontal passage yesterday. There is even a secondary dew point boundary that has been settling south through the area this morning. Ahead of this dew point boundary, some fog has formed with some moisture pooling ahead of it, and with a moist boundary layer from the rain down south last evening. This looks to be temporary early this morning, and then burn off/lift into a fair weather cumulus deck.

We can not rule out a brief sprinkle/shower over the eastern portion of the area this afternoon. This would be the result of some diurnal troughing over the warmer land mass between the cooler lakes, along with some residual low level moisture. It seems like it is a legitimate "silent 10 percent". The moisture will eventually mix out, and then dissipate completely after sunset tonight. Saturday will see much less in the way of cloud cover with drier air expected.

- Hot and Humid Sunday and into Next Week

No big changes in thinking tonight when it comes to the heat that is expected to arrive this weekend and persist into next week. There are differences though between the operation GFS and ECWMF. The ECMWF is much more bullish on the ridging with 500mb heights climbing into the upper 590s. Correspondingly. the ECMWF has warmer 850mb temperatures, reaching +21C to +22C. The GFS is more on the order of +18C to +20C. Bottom line though is it will be hot with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s most days between Sunday and Thursday of next week. If the ECWMF is what verifies we could be more mid 90s most days. Surface dew points look to easily be in the upper 60s to lower 70s which will push heat indices towards 100 at times. Heat Advisory criteria is 100 degrees, so we will make a run at this level on a couple of days. Again, if the ECWMF verifies it could be multiple days at or above heat indices of 100. Summer weather is on the way.

- A Few Chances for Showers/Thunderstorms Sunday and into Next Week

We cannot rule out a couple of chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period. Once again, this very much comes down to differences in the GFS and ECWMF. In the GFS being not as bullish on the ridge, it allows a front to be closer to us versus well off to the north and west.

The first opportunity for precipitation will come Sunday into Sunday night as a wave moves through the Great Lakes aloft. Not a slam dunk, but chances for showers and storms it appears. Confidence in precipitation is not high Sunday through Thursday given the model disparity. The next chance for showers and storms will come out on Wednesday into Thursday as the boundary off to our north sags into the area in the GFS. As mentioned above, model differences make this a low confidence forecast. Bottom line, hot and humid with a few chances for storms meaning it will feel very summer like.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 212 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The main concern with this set of aviation forecasts is the potential for some light fog along the I-94 TAF sites this morning. A cold front stretches from near FNT to GRR to MKG at 06z. South of this front abundant low level moisture is in place.
Light winds combined with the low level moisture will result in light for. At this point only included at JXN, but can see AZO and BTL needed to be updated if the fog becomes pervasive.

VFR ceilings are expected throughout the forecast. High clouds (bases at or above 15,000 feet) are expected the remainder of the night with some broken cumulus today (bases around 4,000 feet).
Winds will become northerly (350-030) at all TAF sites tonight.
Wind speeds will be on the light side at 5 to 10 knots for the most part.

MARINE
Issued at 347 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

We are watching for the potential of one of the more subtle elevated wave events for the nearshore late this afternoon, especially for the southern half. The scenario is where high pressure is building in, and combines with the lower pressure over the warmer land mass.
The winds will initially be offshore for the first half of the day, and will then turn onshore mid-late afternoon. That will bring some of the better wave action over the open waters toward the shoreline.
Right now, the best bet is that we will see winds and waves stay just shy of Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards criteria. If the potential increases a little more, headlines may be needed to be issued by the day shift.

We will see good beach and boating weather then for Saturday with high pressure overhead and lighter winds and smaller waves. Winds and waves will then increase on Sunday as the high moves east of the area, and a solid southerly gradient moves overhead. This looks likely to need some advisories and statements for the increasing hazardous conditions.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 16 mi48 minNNW 1G1 62°F
45168 17 mi48 minESE 1.9G1.9 61°F 63°F1 ft29.9259°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 23 mi88 minSW 7G8 68°F 29.93
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 33 mi48 minSW 7.8G9.7 65°F 65°F1 ft29.9562°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 38 mi58 minN 5.1G6 60°F 61°F29.8860°F
45029 47 mi38 minNE 5.8G7.8 61°F 59°F1 ft61°F


Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI 12 sm12 mincalmM1/4 smOvercast Fog 61°F61°F100%29.93
KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI 19 sm34 mincalm5 smClear Mist 64°F63°F94%29.92
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Wind History graph: LWA
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Tide / Current for
   
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Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,




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