Wednesday, September23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lincoln Park, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:29PM Wednesday September 23, 2020 2:35 PM EDT (18:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:45PMMoonset 10:53PM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:202009070830;;440060 Fzus73 Kdtx 070653 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 253 Am Edt Mon Sep 7 2020 Lcz422-423-460-lez444-070830- 253 Am Edt Mon Sep 7 2020
.thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 252 am edt, doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 40 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near new baltimore to near the ambassador bridge to 23 nm west of luna pier, moving east at 45 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will be near, the ambassador bridge, new baltimore, st clair flats old channel light and wyandotte around 300 am edt. Algonac, st. Clair and belle isle around 305 am edt. Grosse pointe around 310 am edt. Luna pier around 325 am edt. Bolles harbor of refuge and north cape around 330 am edt. Monroe harbor, detroit beach and woodland beach around 335 am edt. Stony point and estral beach around 340 am edt. Detroit river light around 345 am edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach and detroit beach. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 40 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4173 8350 4194 8338 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4239 8295 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8255 4289 8252 4299 8243 4261 8252 4254 8266 4238 8282 4230 8309 4205 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincoln Park, MI
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location: 42.24, -83.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 231718 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 118 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

AVIATION.

VFR flying conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Increasing cirrus shield, albeit on the thinner side in thickness coverage, from the remnants of Beta will drift northward across the airspace into tonight, with persistence forecast of patchy slight haze visibility reduction again around sunrise. Light west/southwest wind trends towards calm overnight before orienting more southwest in direction Thursday.

For DTW . Went with persistence forecast again this TAF period, with increasing cirrus coverage and 6 SM haze around daybreak Thursday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 323 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

DISCUSSION .

Expansive surface high pressure system remains wedged between post- tropical cyclone Teddy (located just south of Nova Scotia) and the remnants of Beta (located near the TX/LA border), which will bring about another round of dry weather along with the warmest temperatures of the week thus far -- highs in the upper-70s and touching 80s in some spots. A dry atmospheric column to promote mostly sunny skies with perhaps a little more filtered sunshine around the southern Metro region, tied to departing remnant smoke from the western wildfires. Otherwise, a developing upper-level jet across ArkLaTex to filter in some high-based cirrostratus across SE MI late tonight and overnight, as cloud debris from Beta is quickly lofted into the area.

Split-stream upper-level flow regime will will keep the high moisture quality and precipitation chances associated with Beta south of the Ohio Valley, while a shortwave trough drops from the northern Plains into the Midwest on Thursday. SE MI will be too far removed from both features for any mention of precipitation, with the exception of the Tri-Cities into northern Thumb as a slightly better moisture axis orients itself across northern lower Michigan, ahead of the shortwave feature. The atmosphere below the origin of hydrometeor production will remain dry and thus measured precipitation remains unlikely, so only a slight chance will suffice for Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, the trend of dry and slightly above normal temperatures will continue on into early Saturday with limited forcing mechanisms in place.

Multiple shortwaves of Pacific origin riding along and embedded within a strengthening jet will overspread across the Midwest, eventually amplifying an upper-level trough across the Great Lakes and driving a cold front across the state later in the day on Saturday and into Sunday, providing the chance to see rain and thunderstorms. Multiple shortwave features will continue to push into the Midwest and will amplify upper-level troughing across the Great Lakes through the early to midweek period, which will have conditions quickly feeling like fall given the drop in temperatures, multiple chances for rain, and quick uptick in wind gusts given the more energetic low-level wind field and caa. Ensemble mean 500 mb height fields support a strong, amplified troughing across the Midwest through the midweek period and latest ECMWF deterministic run shows an impressive PV feature which works to amplify a surface low east of the Rockies before occluding across the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Most of the uncertainty within the model spread lies within the potential amplitude of the trough, with secondary uncertainty tied to timing uncertainty in the location of the trough and associated upstream ridge axis. Still plenty of details to be worked out within the week. Overall, main messaging will consist of a high probability of exhibiting a flip in temperature trends to below normal by the midweek period along with increasing rain chances.

MARINE .

Light southwest winds will further diminish overnight as high pressure near the Tennessee Valley maintains weak advection into the region. The overall trend for the next few days will be mainly dry with 5-10 knot winds oscillating between westerly and southwesterly. One exception looks to arrive on Thursday when showers a possible across northern Lake Huron from a passing trough. There may also be a brief period of light southeasterly flow Thursday night. Otherwise, wet and cool conditions hold off until Saturday when a strong cold front approaches, associated with a central Canada low pressure system. This front and the resultant environment will lead to frequent opportunities for showers, gustier winds, and higher waves through early next week. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron on Saturday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . IRL DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 23 mi36 min W 8 G 13 76°F 1015.9 hPa (-1.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 30 mi36 min E 1.9 G 1.9 67°F1014.7 hPa (-1.0)
45165 37 mi26 min E 3.9 G 5.8 68°F 67°F
TWCO1 38 mi26 min E 6 G 7 68°F 64°F60°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 41 mi48 min WNW 4.1 G 6 78°F 1015.6 hPa53°F
AGCM4 43 mi48 min 71°F 65°F1015.6 hPa
CMPO1 49 mi126 min E 2.9 G 5.1 69°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI8 mi43 minWNW 6 G 168.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F57°F50%1016 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI10 mi41 minS 710.00 miFair69°F61°F78%1016.3 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI16 mi43 minWNW 7 G 1510.00 miFair78°F59°F52%1015.6 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI19 mi43 minWSW 710.00 miFair82°F57°F43%1015.9 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI21 mi41 minNW 910.00 miFair79°F58°F48%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDTW

Wind History from DTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4SE6S7S6S5S3SW4SW5CalmCalmCalmSW3S4S3SW5SW4S4S33CalmSW4W5NW6
G16
1 day agoS11
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SE7SE8S8S6SE3E3E4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmSW4SW4SW5W4SW54
2 days agoE8SE8
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SE7E5E3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmS4S44SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.