Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Forest, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:20PM Thursday December 5, 2019 2:23 PM CST (20:23 UTC) Moonrise 2:20PMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 906 Am Cst Thu Dec 5 2019
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south around 10 kt by late morning. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft late.
Friday..North winds 15 to 25 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft in the afternoon. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
LMZ740 Expires:201912052215;;318648 FZUS53 KLOT 051506 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 906 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-052215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Forest, IL
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location: 42.24, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 051741 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1141 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

SHORT TERM. 329 AM CST

Through Friday .

Aloft, an impressive upper low continues its spin over the western CONUS with NW flow still in place across the Great Lakes region.

At the surface, winds have become light and mostly variable early this morning. This combined with clearing skies, some areas could see temps drop into the low to mid 20s.

Winds turn southerly by mid morning ahead of an advancing cold front. Although this will provide some limited warm air advection into the region, mid to high level clouds streaming out ahead of the front move in by noon, which could limit our warming somewhat. Still expect highs to reach into the mid to upper 40s to near 50.

The cold front then moves across the area Thursday night. Winds become gusty along and behind the front out of the north, especially over the lake and areas downwind. As has been the case the past few days, a dry layer at the low-to-mid levels should limit any precip chances associated with this system. Temps on Friday will be noticeably cooler, with highs mainly in the 30s as high pressure settles in and winds become light and variable.

Petr

LONG TERM. 329 AM CST

Friday night through Wednesday .

In the wake of Friday morning's cold front, winds will finally begin to fall off Friday evening as the core of a 1030+ mb high begins to settle in (briefly) overhead. With the injection of drier air into the region, temperatures should fall off pretty quickly during the evening hours. Have nudged low temperatures down a bit under the blended guidance, although it looks like lows may actually be hit towards midnight before southwesterly flow returns overnight as the high pressure axis shifts off towards the Ohio River Valley.

Saturday is looking like a pretty nice day as breezy southwest winds drive the lingering cool airmass northward which should allow high temperatures to rise back into the lower 40s for most. This pleasant weather will be short-lived, however, as additional warm advection will likely deliver a round of increasing low stratus to the area Saturday night into Sunday as a lead shortwave drifts across the area. Even with the increased cloud cover on Sunday, however, persistent south to southwesterly flow ahead of the next weather disturbance will continue to pump warm air poleward. This should allow high temperatures to rise solidly into the 40s if not lower 50s across parts of the region. The mid- levels continue to look a bit too dry to support much in the way of precipitation development during the day on Sunday, although can't entirely rule out perhaps a few stray showers developing under the lingering subsidence inversion. Have capped PoPs below 15% as a result, but do ramp them up pretty quickly on Sunday evening as better upper jet dynamics move in ahead of the next incoming cold front. Thermal profiles look to solidly support a plain rain through Sunday night, even as surface temperatures fall into the upper 30s near the I-39 corridor towards daybreak on Monday.

Overnight guidance has come into a bit better agreement regarding the large-scale evolution of the early-mid week weather system with the trend in both deterministic and ensemble guidance towards a lower potential for phasing between a large/potent northern stream wave and a faster-moving southern stream system. Previously, the GFS/GEFS guidance was showing an increased potential for a slower/deeper/more phased solutions overall, but has notably trended towards the rest of the faster global model suite. The net result is generally lighter precipitation amounts and less potential for snow before dry air shuts off precipitation production on Tuesday. Still obviously some potential for subtle changes in timing and amplitude of the various pieces here, but latest indications are for just a brief hit of light snow on the backside of the departing low Monday evening and into Tuesday.

The main story into the middle of next week continues to be on the blast of very cold air in the wake of this departing system. Global guidance is all in solid agreement for a day 5+ forecast driving a core of anomalously cold 850 mb air across the Upper Midwest (likely into the -15 to -20 C below normal range) by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Have continued the previous trend of undercutting the blended guidance at this point, especially for lows Tuesday night and highs on Wednesday with the latest National Blend of Models indicating temperatures that look a bit too warm towards the 75th percentile of the guidance envelope. Near zero or even some sub-zero air temperature readings certainly appear to be in play by Tuesday night, especially across our northwest zones away from the heart of Chicago. Below zero wind chill values look like a good bet for many by Wednesday morning as brisk northwest winds may persist for a bit before the core of the Canadian High builds overhead. Longer range guidance does, however, indicate that this cold intrusion will be short-lived, with a pretty quick moderation taking place by the end of next week.

Carlaw

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

Aviation forecast concerns:

-Cold frontal passage after midnight tonight. -Winds turn north and become gusty near 20 kt early Friday morning. -Period of MVFR ceilings possible behind front Friday morning.

Weak surface low pressure over Minnesota this midday, will track east-southeast across the Great Lakes region through early Friday. A cold front trailing from this low will pass across the terminals after midnight tonight. Ahead of this front, winds will be from the south around 10 kt this afternoon/evening, with increasing mid/high level VFR clouds from northern IL northward into WI. Cold front expected to push across the terminals just after midnight tonight with a wind shift to NNW winds, and an increase in speeds/gusts into Friday morning. Gradient will begin to relax midday/early afternoon Friday as surface high pressure builds into the Mississippi Valley, with winds diminishing but turning more NNE. MVFR stratus is expected for a time Friday as cold air spreads in behind the cold front. Guidance generally depicts cloud bases in the 2000-2500 ft range, though some patchy ceilings as low as 1500 feet are possible. Should see MVFR lift/scatter out during the early afternoon hours.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi84 min S 11 G 16 39°F 1014.6 hPa (-2.3)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 27 mi54 min S 12 G 13 42°F 31°F
CNII2 30 mi39 min S 11 G 11 44°F 27°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 39 mi54 min S 8 G 13 44°F 1014.6 hPa30°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi32 minSSW 910.00 miFair45°F27°F49%1015.4 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL12 mi29 minSSW 1010.00 miFair44°F28°F53%1014.7 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL18 mi33 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F28°F55%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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NW8NW7NW11NW6W4W4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5S7S10S12S9
1 day agoSW9
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2 days agoNW6NW8NW6NW6W3CalmSW4S3SE4SW7SW9SW9SW9SW7S9S11S10SW8S10S11SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.