Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Forest, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:29PM Friday April 10, 2020 4:56 AM CDT (09:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:56PMMoonset 8:08AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 255 Am Cdt Fri Apr 10 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am cdt this morning...
Today..Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt by late morning. Winds becoming east 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon, except remaining northwest 10 to 20 kt along and near the immediate shore. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Cloudy. Chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Rain showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:202004101530;;864319 FZUS53 KLOT 100755 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-101530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Forest, IL
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location: 42.24, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 100832 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 332 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

SHORT TERM. 221 AM CDT

Through Saturday .

Today: A much quieter day is in store today when compared to the past several days as the northern fringes of a surface high pressure ridge crosses the area this afternoon. Some stratus currently over northern Wisconsin may brush portions of northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana late this morning into this afternoon. Otherwise, expect some widely scattered diurnal cumulus with mid-level clouds arriving late from the northwest. Decent mixing into increasing 800- 850 hPa temps this afternoon supports max temps around 50F for much of the area.

Tonight and Saturday morning: Mid-level saturation will occur quickly late tonight into Saturday morning as a pocket of 600-800 hPa moisture over the central Rockies interacts with a weak mid- level impulse shifting southeast from the Dakotas. In response, some guidance is producing spotty light precip across the northern CWA. With low-level moisture lacking, especially with potentially over- achieving mixing resulting in lower dew points this afternoon, have opted to keep the forecast dry through this period. However, would not be entirely surprised to see some mid-level echoes produce a few sprinkles at the surface north of the Illinois/Kankakee River within a couple hours on either side of sunrise.

Saturday afternoon: Even with a decent amount of mid-level cloud cover, temps should rise into the upper 50s north to low 60s south with continued low-level WAA. A surge in moisture within the broad WAA late in the afternoon (and possibly as late as early evening) will result in a fairly quick expansion of showers across most of the CWA, with the highest coverage toward the Wisconsin state line. Much of this activity will be confined to the evening and overnight hours, so nearly the entire afternoon should be dry for most locations.

Kluber

LONG TERM. 330 AM CDT

Saturday night through Thursday .

Warm advective driven rain showers will continue Saturday night into Sunday as the warm front will shift across the area ahead of a developing weather system. The system will start of with somewhat of a benign look to it albeit that it will be emanating out of a currently closed upper low across the southwest, but this system will undergo some significant strengthening later Sunday into Monday A strong upper level jet will steer the energy associated with this system across the plains on Sunday and toward the Great Lakes region Monday. Meanwhile, a cold upper trough across central Canada coupled with a feed of northwest flow on its back side will provide significant baroclinicity and added gusto.

But back to some more of the details. The warm front will lay out across the southern Great Lakes and provides a focus for precipitation much of the day. This will be modulated at times with some easing in the warm advection and somewhat weaker height falls. There is also some discrepancy in guidance into the degree of interaction between the northern upper trough and the southern stream which will play a role in how much precipitation there will be on Sunday given the loss of some deeper moisture, especially the early to midday Sunday. Model guidance is in also in some disagreement as to how far north this front will shift, with areas to its north remaining cool, and there could be a sharper temperature contrast then currently advertised.

The upper height falls/jet structure along with the approach of a strong cold front and lingering warm front in the region, coupled with continued feed of increasing moisture will support a reinvigoration of activity later afternoon Sunday/Sunday night. Several guidance sources keep the better moisture transport off to our southeast and have a bit less interaction of the northern and southern streams, thus a wide range of precipitation solutions, but this would be a favored period of more significant rainfall in the region.

What is off a bit higher confidence is that late Sunday night Monday is shaping up to be again much cooler and windy. Both the GFS and EC develop this system into a sub 980 mb low (966 and 971 mb respectively) with the CMC eventually getting there just a bit later. Regardless of how strong this will be, we will have a deepening low to our northeast combined with fairly strong cold advection that will support a fairly windy day. Most guidance (outside of the GFS/GFS Ensembles, and just 1-2 EC ensembles) does not have much deeper moisture left by the time the column cools overnight to support much snow -- though both the NBM and EC support some light snow favored in northwest IL into north central IL(maybe a brief burst) on the back side as precip ends along with a surge of wind. The GFS is considerably snowier as it has a stronger northern stream vort max at the base of the northern low.

The theme beyond this is seasonally cold weather, with signficant anomalies depicted on the CPC 6-10 day outlook. The upper trough will linger in the region with northwest flow on the back side supplying a continued feed of cooler air. The cold front will be to our south, thus precipitation chances are tempered unless this front ends up a bit farther north mid to late week.

KMD

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Only concern for the period is the lake breeze position later today, but at this distance the low level flow appears strong enough to keep it east of ORD/MDW.

High pressure across the plains and deep low pressure across the far eastern Great Lakes into the northwest will maintain occasionally gusty wnw winds to around 20 kt overnight into early Friday. The high will sink south and the gradient will relax some today, but mixing today will support gusts again mid morning into early afternoon. The lake breeze will likely straddle the shore in IL, maybe making some inland progress across southern Cook County IL into northwest IN. KGYY is in a challenging zone where some guidance keeps it out, whereas some higher resolution guidance does bring it in but lingers in the vicinity, and you could see some variable winds there at times. Clouds upstream are progged to dissipate and remain SCT as they arrive today. Mid-higher clouds spread in tonight.

KMD

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . Winthrop Harbor to Gary IN until 11 AM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory . Gary to Michigan City IN until 3 PM Friday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi57 min WNW 12 G 15 34°F 1014.6 hPa (+1.7)
OKSI2 26 mi117 min NW 2.9 G 7 37°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 27 mi57 min WNW 19 G 22 36°F 26°F
CNII2 30 mi42 min NW 9.9 G 17 36°F 24°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 39 mi63 min W 8 G 12 35°F 1014.5 hPa23°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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NE3
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N12
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NE2
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N15
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NE3
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi65 minNW 810.00 miFair34°F21°F61%1015.9 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL12 mi62 minWNW 810.00 miFair33°F21°F64%1015.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL18 mi66 minWNW 1110.00 miFair34°F21°F61%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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NW10NW11NW17
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NW14NW9
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1 day agoCalmCalmS4SE3CalmCalm453NE6NE9NE6N16
G26
NW6N6CalmNW7W5W11
G18
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G21
NW13
G19
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3W66S8SW7S14
G19
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G25
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SW6NW8W5NE5CalmCalmCalmNE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.