Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayville, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 241602 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1102 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. A storm system passing to our north will push a cold front through our region this afternoon with scattered rain showers and notably milder air marking the event. There will also be strong winds over the western counties this afternoon as gusts will approach 50 mph near Lake Erie and across the Niagara Frontier. Colder air in the wake of front will send our temperatures back below normal Thursday . then we become progressively milder as we head into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low pressure near the thumb region of lower Michigan will track east across Lake Huron to southern Ontario late this afternoon. A strengthening low level jet ahead of this system will not only advect notably milder air into the forecast area . but 50-55 knot winds aloft will AT LEAST partially mix to the sfc during the afternoon and evening. More substantial widespread mixing *should* be restricted by strong cap at H9, but if insolation is stronger (as will be the case until mid clouds arrive later today) it is possible that many areas over western NY to Genesee valley that reach into the upper 40s/near 50F could tap into 45-50 knot winds as low as H925mb and see gusts over 40 mph. Will monitor that potential as we should see some tipoff from the atmosphere by early afternoon. The areas most prone to receiving the strongest winds will be from the typical corridor from Lake Erie across the IAG Frontier. In this case . winds in the aforementioned areas will almost certainly gust to 40 mph and could approach 50 mph by late afternoon. A wind advisory remains in effect to cover this potential. Based on more sun, stronger mixing initially, will see if that advisory needs to be expanded at all in coverage in the next couple hours.

Some showers will break out ahead and along the cold front . with the much milder airmass supporting rain versus snow. The bulk of the associated pcpn will fall from 3-4 PM through the early evening.

Colder air in the wake of the front will change residual pcpn to snow showers tonight with a coating to an inch possible east of Lake Ontario. Cold advection to continue into Thursday with H85 temps lowering to -12c. The vast majority of the region will remain below freezing throughout the day as a result . especially across the Eastern Lake Ontario region and in the higher terrain of the Srn Tier Otherwise. a minimal lake response off Lk Ontario with nuisance lake snow showers under a cap of 5kft.

NAM guidance of choice (better handle on lack of clouds overhead and potential for more mixing) through early evening with Canadian NH for rest of tonight into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Aside from some lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of the Lakes Thursday night, strong high pressure building across the region from the west should provide dry conditions for Friday and at least the first half of Friday night. Temperatures will be close to average Thursday night and Friday, with lows Thursday night ranging from the upper single digits and low teens across the North Country to the upper teens and low 20s south of Lake Ontario. Highs Friday will average in the middle 30s for much of the area, with upper 20s to low 30s found across the North Country.

A warm front extending east from low pressure moving through the upper Great Lakes will move through the area Friday night and Saturday morning, bringing the next round of precipitation. Have raised PoPs to Lkly as models are in fairly good agreement that strong warm advection/forcing in combination with low-level Atlantic/GOMEX moisture advecting northward on the west side of strong high pressure off the East Coast will produce at least some light snow across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. A light coating of snow is expected for most locations, with an inch or two possible across the Tug Hill and western Dacks Saturday morning. A trailing cold front will then cross the area Saturday afternoon, keeping the threat for precipitation going. The aforementioned strong warm advection ahead of the boundary will cause any snow to mix with then change to plain rain area wide during the second half of the day ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, lows mainly in the 20s Friday night will climb into the 40s for most locations by Saturday afternoon, with a few 50F readings not out of the question across the traditionally warmer areas of the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Any lingering light precipitation east of Lake Ontario will change back snow Saturday night as airmass becomes just cold enough in the wake of the cold front to support frozen precip at the surface overnight.

A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will pass across the region, providing a mainly dry Sunday. Best chance for any precipitation Sunday would be toward the NY/PA line as a wave moves east along a stationary boundary draped across the Mid Atlantic region.

Quite a bit of uncertainty remains as to how the next shortwave/upper level trough will evolve early next week, with both the magnitude of cold air and the speed at which the trough/colder airmass dives towards the Great Lakes from the north. Will continue with SChc/Chc PoPs Sunday night through Tuesday for now until solution becomes more clear. However with regard to temperature, Tuesday continues to trend toward a much cooler day.

AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. VFR conditions this morning will deteriorate mid to late afternoon as a cold front will push through the region. High clouds into early this afternoon will give way to alto-cu mid level cigs mid afternoon that will lower to 1500-2500 ft strato-cu cigs by late afternoon. As the cold front moves through by early this evening . rain showers will become more widespread and many of the TAF sites could experience a few hours of IFR cigs.

Winds increasing and will continue to strengthen ahead of the frontal passage this afternoon. West to southwest gusts of 40kts will be possible near Lake Erie and across the IAG Frontier . likely impacting the KBUF and KIAG TAF sites.

Mainly MVFR cigs are expected in the wake of the cold front tonight. IFR cigs are likely across the higher terrain of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes . particularly after 06z.

Outlook .

Thursday . MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Friday . Mainly VFR. Saturday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain or snow showers. Sunday . VFR. Chance of rain showers.

MARINE. Low pressure tracking from Lower Michigan and Lake Huron to southern Ontario today will push a relatively strong cold front through the Lower Great Lakes As a result. expect fresh to strong southwesterlies through late this afternoon. There will likely be some gale force gusts on Lake Erie as well . mainly between 18z and 03z. Small craft advisories will remain intact for all of the NY nearshore waters.

Winds will gradually subside tonight as the area of low pressure will exit across the Saint Lawrence valley and northern New England. This should allow the SCA for Lake Erie to expire at 06z.

The SCA's for Lake Ontario will remain in place into Thursday . as waves will take a little longer to subside in the cold air advection within the weakening wind field.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-002-010- 011-019-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for LOZ043- 044. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . JLA/RSH NEAR TERM . JLA/RSH SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM/Thomas AVIATION . JLA/RSH MARINE . RSH

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NREP1	15 mi	77 min	SSW 21 G 33	53°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY	19 mi	47 min	SSW 14 G 23	56°F			1003.1 hPa (-5.7)
EREP1	32 mi	47 min	SW 13 G 23
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	39 mi	47 min		53°F			1003.8 hPa (-5.9)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	54 mi	47 min	S 15 G 18	44°F	33°F		1002.3 hPa (-6.4)	11°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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SW19 G24

SW19 G26

SW20

SW17 G21

SW16 G23

SW20

SW16 G20

SW16 G20

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SW13 G16

SW13 G16

SW9 G12

SW16 G20

SW13 G16

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SE9 G12

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S17 G21

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SW20 G26

SW25 G31

SW28

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SW25 G34

SW27 G34

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SW28

SW18 G26

SW22 G28

S17 G21

S13 G16

S7 G11

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S16 G20

S13 G17

S10 G13

S14 G17

SW22 G30

SW21 G26

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S3

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E4 G8

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SE10 G13

SE8 G13

SE11 G15

S19 G24

SE14 G18

SE12 G16

S17 G21

S19 G23

S20 G25

S18 G22

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY	21 mi	54 min	S 22 G 30	10.00 mi	Fair and Breezy	52°F	30°F	43%	1004.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)

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SW15 G28

SW17 G28

SW18 G26

SW16 G29

SW14 G27

SW17 G24

SW14 G25

SW15 G19

SW14 G22

SW15 G22

SW12

SW12 G22

SW13

SW9

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S19 G28

S19 G29

SW19 G30

S22 G30

1 day ago

SW17 G30

SW16 G27

SW17 G32

SW20 G28

SW17 G25

SW19 G28

SW18 G29

SW21 G29

SW18 G25

SW18 G28

SW10

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SW15 G19

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S14 G22

S18 G25

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SW21 G28

SW14 G23

SW16 G27

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NW8

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Calm

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S16 G21

S16 G24

S25 G38

S22 G28

S22 G30

S18 G26

S23 G27

S27 G36

SW20 G29

S21 G33

S21 G29

S16 G23

S14

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Tide / Current Tables for

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