Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mayville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:02PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 12:46 PM EST (17:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:59PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1016 Am Est Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly Sunny.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow Friday night.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Rain likely during the day.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain and snow showers Sunday night. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ040 Expires:202102242230;;050421 FZUS51 KBUF 241516 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1016 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-242230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayville, NY
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location: 42.25, -79.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 241602 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1102 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. A storm system passing to our north will push a cold front through our region this afternoon with scattered rain showers and notably milder air marking the event. There will also be strong winds over the western counties this afternoon as gusts will approach 50 mph near Lake Erie and across the Niagara Frontier. Colder air in the wake of front will send our temperatures back below normal Thursday . then we become progressively milder as we head into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low pressure near the thumb region of lower Michigan will track east across Lake Huron to southern Ontario late this afternoon. A strengthening low level jet ahead of this system will not only advect notably milder air into the forecast area . but 50-55 knot winds aloft will AT LEAST partially mix to the sfc during the afternoon and evening. More substantial widespread mixing *should* be restricted by strong cap at H9, but if insolation is stronger (as will be the case until mid clouds arrive later today) it is possible that many areas over western NY to Genesee valley that reach into the upper 40s/near 50F could tap into 45-50 knot winds as low as H925mb and see gusts over 40 mph. Will monitor that potential as we should see some tipoff from the atmosphere by early afternoon. The areas most prone to receiving the strongest winds will be from the typical corridor from Lake Erie across the IAG Frontier. In this case . winds in the aforementioned areas will almost certainly gust to 40 mph and could approach 50 mph by late afternoon. A wind advisory remains in effect to cover this potential. Based on more sun, stronger mixing initially, will see if that advisory needs to be expanded at all in coverage in the next couple hours.

Some showers will break out ahead and along the cold front . with the much milder airmass supporting rain versus snow. The bulk of the associated pcpn will fall from 3-4 PM through the early evening.

Colder air in the wake of the front will change residual pcpn to snow showers tonight with a coating to an inch possible east of Lake Ontario. Cold advection to continue into Thursday with H85 temps lowering to -12c. The vast majority of the region will remain below freezing throughout the day as a result . especially across the Eastern Lake Ontario region and in the higher terrain of the Srn Tier Otherwise. a minimal lake response off Lk Ontario with nuisance lake snow showers under a cap of 5kft.

NAM guidance of choice (better handle on lack of clouds overhead and potential for more mixing) through early evening with Canadian NH for rest of tonight into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Aside from some lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of the Lakes Thursday night, strong high pressure building across the region from the west should provide dry conditions for Friday and at least the first half of Friday night. Temperatures will be close to average Thursday night and Friday, with lows Thursday night ranging from the upper single digits and low teens across the North Country to the upper teens and low 20s south of Lake Ontario. Highs Friday will average in the middle 30s for much of the area, with upper 20s to low 30s found across the North Country.

A warm front extending east from low pressure moving through the upper Great Lakes will move through the area Friday night and Saturday morning, bringing the next round of precipitation. Have raised PoPs to Lkly as models are in fairly good agreement that strong warm advection/forcing in combination with low-level Atlantic/GOMEX moisture advecting northward on the west side of strong high pressure off the East Coast will produce at least some light snow across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. A light coating of snow is expected for most locations, with an inch or two possible across the Tug Hill and western Dacks Saturday morning. A trailing cold front will then cross the area Saturday afternoon, keeping the threat for precipitation going. The aforementioned strong warm advection ahead of the boundary will cause any snow to mix with then change to plain rain area wide during the second half of the day ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, lows mainly in the 20s Friday night will climb into the 40s for most locations by Saturday afternoon, with a few 50F readings not out of the question across the traditionally warmer areas of the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Any lingering light precipitation east of Lake Ontario will change back snow Saturday night as airmass becomes just cold enough in the wake of the cold front to support frozen precip at the surface overnight.

A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will pass across the region, providing a mainly dry Sunday. Best chance for any precipitation Sunday would be toward the NY/PA line as a wave moves east along a stationary boundary draped across the Mid Atlantic region.

Quite a bit of uncertainty remains as to how the next shortwave/upper level trough will evolve early next week, with both the magnitude of cold air and the speed at which the trough/colder airmass dives towards the Great Lakes from the north. Will continue with SChc/Chc PoPs Sunday night through Tuesday for now until solution becomes more clear. However with regard to temperature, Tuesday continues to trend toward a much cooler day.

AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. VFR conditions this morning will deteriorate mid to late afternoon as a cold front will push through the region. High clouds into early this afternoon will give way to alto-cu mid level cigs mid afternoon that will lower to 1500-2500 ft strato-cu cigs by late afternoon. As the cold front moves through by early this evening . rain showers will become more widespread and many of the TAF sites could experience a few hours of IFR cigs.

Winds increasing and will continue to strengthen ahead of the frontal passage this afternoon. West to southwest gusts of 40kts will be possible near Lake Erie and across the IAG Frontier . likely impacting the KBUF and KIAG TAF sites.

Mainly MVFR cigs are expected in the wake of the cold front tonight. IFR cigs are likely across the higher terrain of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes . particularly after 06z.

Outlook .

Thursday . MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Friday . Mainly VFR. Saturday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain or snow showers. Sunday . VFR. Chance of rain showers.

MARINE. Low pressure tracking from Lower Michigan and Lake Huron to southern Ontario today will push a relatively strong cold front through the Lower Great Lakes As a result. expect fresh to strong southwesterlies through late this afternoon. There will likely be some gale force gusts on Lake Erie as well . mainly between 18z and 03z. Small craft advisories will remain intact for all of the NY nearshore waters.

Winds will gradually subside tonight as the area of low pressure will exit across the Saint Lawrence valley and northern New England. This should allow the SCA for Lake Erie to expire at 06z.

The SCA's for Lake Ontario will remain in place into Thursday . as waves will take a little longer to subside in the cold air advection within the weakening wind field.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-002-010- 011-019-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for LOZ043- 044. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . JLA/RSH NEAR TERM . JLA/RSH SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM/Thomas AVIATION . JLA/RSH MARINE . RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NREP1 15 mi77 min SSW 21 G 33 53°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 19 mi47 min SSW 14 G 23 56°F 1003.1 hPa (-5.7)
EREP1 32 mi47 min SW 13 G 23
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 39 mi47 min 53°F 1003.8 hPa (-5.9)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 54 mi47 min S 15 G 18 44°F 33°F1002.3 hPa (-6.4)11°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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S18
G22

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY21 mi54 minS 22 G 3010.00 miFair and Breezy52°F30°F43%1004.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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G28
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SW12SW12
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SW13SW9S8S9S9S7S9S11S19
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1 day agoSW17
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S14S14S15S10SW11SW21
G28
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2 days agoNW8W6CalmN5N5NE5NE4E9CalmS9S12S16
G21
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G38
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G36
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G33
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G29
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G23
S14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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