Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayville, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 110547 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1247 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. Lake effect snow will be on the move overnight through Wednesday night along with areas of blowing snow. Lake snows east of the lakes overnight will get better organized and move north across the Buffalo and Watertown areas Wednesday morning and early afternoon before moving back south in the afternoon. Lake bands will weaken southeast of the lakes Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. An interesting lake effect event will be unfolding tonight through Wednesday night. Confidence in timing and location is fairly high, but amounts and intensity is not quite as high.

For the rest of the night, lake effect snow off Lake Erie is broadening and weakening in response to increasing boundary layer shear. There are still some pockets of moderate snow, but these will be short lived at any one location as the area of snow begins to move north. A few additional inches of accumulation is expected overnight.

East of Lake Erie .

Expect steady snows along the Chautauqua Ridge overnight with sufficient lapse rates and ample moisture in place. An advisory is in effect for traditional westerly flow regions (portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties). Snowfall rates may be somewhat unimpressive by lake-effect standards but still may reach an inch an hour at times with overnight accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in most persistent snows. These will generally confined to higher elevations such as the Chautauqua Ridge.

The more interesting event will occur near sunrise as the band heads north (during the commute) across the Southtowns, and then into Metro Buffalo during the morning. Some strengthening of the mostly singular band is expected during this time with full lake fetch. The band should reach its northern extent by midday, probably near a Niagara Falls to Albion line. The snow band will then head back to the south as the main upper level trough finally moves in. The forecast is a bit north of most model guidance, and was adjusted for this typical bias which can underdo the funneling influence of the Chautauqua Ridge.

There remains uncertainty on the strength and duration of the band while it lingers over/north of Metro Buffalo and into the Northtowns. But, once it starts to move, it should quickly head south, with the entire lake band swinging south (and/or being pushed into the shoreline), blowing past the Southtowns, and back into the Southern Tier. The band may be briefly strong during the midday/full fetch time period with aided lift from the upper level trough. The mobility of the band will limit total snow amounts, but it's important not to underestimate the impact a brief intense snow band can have. The band should then begin to weaken later Wednesday evening after losing adequate fetch while the airmass aloft continues to dry out.

The lower confidence in amounts is compounded by the possibility of blowing snow. This should may help keep snow amounts down some, but it will also result in a relatively impactful day in terms of travel. While not a banner event by any means, this event should still be troublesome for some. As such, a fairly strongly worded advisory remains in place.

Most areas should end up with a an inch or two as the band moves north, followed by another 2 to 3 inches as the band moves south. Highest amounts should be over Northern Erie County where the band lingers the longest. It's possible some areas could exceed 7" if the band lingers before heading south, but the emphasis for this event should be focused more in impact from blowing snow rather than amounts.

East of Lake Ontario .

A lake banding will probably have a hard time getting established until late tonight ESE of Lake Ontario due to the above noted limited moisture availability. Some consolidation is expected during Wednesday as flow backs, with a better defined lake band forming by afternoon with Lake Erie serving as its upstream connection. Once this is established, a lake band should be roughly over the St Lawrence Valley. But with continued limited moisture and less than ideal fetch, snow rates and corresponding snow amounts should be low, at least until the band starts moving back south toward the more traditional/long fetch east of Lake Ontario in the afternoon. An upstream multi-lake connection should then be established ESE of Lake Ontario by Wednesday evening together with the coldest air aloft. This may result in the best opportunity for snow rates of 1-2"/hr, but only for a relatively short duration Wednesday evening. Increasingly dry air aloft should weaken lake bands overnight.

Similar to downwind of Erie, areas east of Lake Ontario will be under an Advisory with blowing snow possibly leading to as much of an impact as snow amounts. In general, expect snow amounts to be fairly tame over this traditionally hard-hit region, with most locations staying under 7". Highest amounts should be over the Tug Hill and toward Oswego County (mainly late Wed-->Wed eve), with less, possibly much less elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Surface high pressure will pass by to our south through the Mid- Atlantic states on Thursday and then off the Northeast coast near Long Island by Thursday evening. Any residual lake effect snows Thursday morning will further weaken or diminish completely off Lake Erie. It appears at this point, the only remaining lake effect snows will likely be off Lake Ontario early Thursday morning. The band off Lake Ontario will quickly traverse Oswego county and then heads north into Jefferson county by mid-morning in response to winds backing to the south and southwest. This band as it heads north may potentially make for some tricky travel conditons on I-81 during the morning commute. Otherwise, once the band arrives over Jefferson county it will likely be fairly weak and should fall apart as warm advection processes take over, equilibrium levels fall, and moisture depletes within the dendritic growth zone. Additional accumulations of an inch or so will be possible with most locals receiving less than that. It will still be a fairly chilly day with highs peaking in the 20s to low 30s.

Surface high pressure will then drift off the New England coast Thursday night. Warm advection processes will really begin to kick in as the high departs along with an increase in mid/high clouds. Any precipitation associated with the warm front will likely stay well north of our region. No issue Friday with dry weather expected all day. Ongoing warm advection will allow temperatures to climb into the 40s in most areas, with 30s limited to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Dry weather will gradually come to an end Friday night as a southern stream trough aids in the development of low pressure over the deep south. Deep southerly flow will advect moisture northward ahead of the low with increasing chances for showers overnight. Initially, there might be a chance the rain starts as a little wintry mix across the North Country. As the low advances northward, a northern stream trough will track towards the western lakes. These two systems will eventually phase and likely produce widespread rain on Saturday. Lows Friday night will likely follow a non-diurnal temperature trend and occuring early. Look for lows in the 30s early, then rising. Highs on Saturday will peak in the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. The northern stream portion of this phasing system mentioned above will likely cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. Colder air deepening across the eastern Great Lakes and H850T falling to -11C/-13C will bring the potential for lake effect- enhanced snows east of the lakes. Otherwise, lows Saturday night will fall back into the low 30s by daybreak Sunday morning. Temperatures on Sunday will likely not change all that much with highs in the mid 30s for most locations.

The system will move out into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night and Monday. Colder air continuing to filter into the Great Lakes in its wake will continue to support lake effect snows east and southeast of the lakes. Monday, the surface high to our west builds across the Lower Lakes with any lake snows gradually winding down. Monday night into Tuesday, the next system pulls out of the Mississippi valley with an increasing chance for precipitation. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to track and timing. ECMWF passes this system well to our south while the GFS tracks it directly towards our region. For now have added just chance POPs with so much uncertainty.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie overnight with areas of IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS impacting the western Southern Tier including KJHW. The lake effect snow off Lake Erie will move quickly north late tonight and Wednesday morning, before moving quickly back south during the afternoon. The band will produce IFR and VLIFR conditions with moderate to heavy snow. The fast movement will make for very changeable conditions, with the low VSBY not lasting for more than an hour or two at any one location. The same will occur off Lake Ontario, with lake effect snow developing over Canada at the northeast end of the lake late Wednesday morning, then moving quickly south across the east end of the lake during the afternoon and evening. This band will also produce IFR and VLIFR conditions with brief periods of moderate to heavy snow.

Outside of lake effect areas VFR will prevail most of today, although a few very brief snow showers and IFR are likely this afternoon with a cold frontal passage. Winds will gust up to 35 knots northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and around 25 knots farther inland.

The lake effect snow off Lake Erie will quickly diminish this evening across the western Southern Tier and end overnight. The Lake Ontario band will last longer, and center on Oswego County overnight with areas of IFR. Outside of lake effect areas VFR will prevail tonight.

KBUF Airport . Lake effect snow will move north across the airfield during the early to mid morning. This first batch will produce IFR, but VSBY below airfield minimums is not expected. The band of snow will then be north of the airport for a few hours before moving back south across KBUF during the early to mid afternoon. This second round of snow is likely to be heavier and accompanied by more blowing snow, with VSBY below airfield minimums possible for a brief (around 1 hour) period. Conditions will improve rapidly by 21Z as the band moves south of the airport.

Outlook .

Thursday . Lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario with local IFR in the morning, ending in the afternoon. Otherwise VFR. Friday . VFR. Saturday . MVFR. Rain likely. Sunday . Areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers, especially southeast of the lakes.

MARINE. Following coordination with neighboring offices, we have issued gales for Lake Erie. It appears marginal, expect cold air will help mix winds aloft to the surface resulting in a 3-6 hour period of gales. A Gale Warning is in effect for most of Lake Ontario with Small craft headlines elsewhere as outlined below.

Winds will diminish late Wednesday night with high pressure likely to provide a period of quiet conditions on the waters for Thursday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A period of low end gale force winds will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening on Lake Ontario. The strong onshore winds, high wave action, and high lake levels will bring an increased risk of lakeshore flooding along the Lake Ontario shore at the east end of the lake. The Lakeshore Flood Watch was upgraded to a Warning for Jefferson, Oswego, and northern Cayuga counties Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. This event will not be as significant as the Halloween night lakeshore flooding, but still may be high enough to result in some flooding in flood prone areas and more shoreline erosion.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ012-085. Lakeshore Flood Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ007-008. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ006. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ019-020. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ010-011. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ044-045. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ044-045-063>065. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ062.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/Zaff NEAR TERM . Apffel/Hitchcock/Zaff SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . AR AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Apffel/Zaff TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Apffel/Hitchcock/Zaff

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NREP1	15 mi	69 min	WSW 8.9 G 16	26°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY	19 mi	39 min	SW 7 G 8	28°F			1023.4 hPa (+0.4)
EREP1	32 mi	51 min	WSW 7 G 14
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	39 mi	57 min		28°F			1022.3 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	54 mi	51 min	W 7 G 9.9	26°F	40°F		1022.8 hPa	7°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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SW20 G27

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY	21 mi	46 min	SW 6	0.50 mi	Snow Freezing Fog	27°F	23°F	85%	1023.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)

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SW18 G27

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W12 G19

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S18 G27

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SW9 G19

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S14 G24

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S17 G28

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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