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LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
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lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 090449 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1149 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023


AVIATION

Low level moisture increasingly connected to the Gulf coast is transported into the Great Lakes late tonight on deep SW flow of moderate intensity. The moisture axis occurs in a very mild warm sector air mass associated with mature low pressure near the MN arrowhead. Early evening borderline VFR/MVFR ceiling is becoming more consistently MVFR heading toward midnight which is then followed by a drop into the 1500 ft range with similar onset timing across the SE Mi terminal corridor. The nocturnal low level jet is just short of LLWS criteria but is more than adequate for strong low level moisture transport eventually leading to IFR ceiling shortly after sunrise. The moisture axis being very mild for early December leads to an easy call on all rain showers as precipitation breaks out ahead of the cold front that is set to sweep across SE Mi during the afternoon. Gusty SW wind is expected along and for a few hours post front with SW gusts reaching the 30 knot range until closer to sunset Saturday evening.

For DTW... Ceiling settles into MVFR range during the remainder of tonight as very mild and moist air moves into the region. IFR ceiling follows as MVFR rain showers increase coverage during the morning. A strong cold front is expected at DTW mid to late afternoon which brings a gusty wind shift to the SW into Saturday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling below 5000 feet tonight and Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 420 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

DISCUSSION...

Clouds have speared into Lower Michigan today on the nose of strengthening low-level southwesterly warm advection. Moist system- relative isentropic ascent is generally confined to the lowest 7 kft AGL as ample dry air aloft precedes cloud development through the evening hours. Low cloud depths thicken with time tonight as saturation layer improves, but not expecting much more than light drizzle before midnight. A secondary (and more robust) plume of ThetaE begins to lift north of the state-line after 03Z. Models show better agreement in light rainfall beginning late tonight and very early Saturday morning as the slope of the isentropic surface steepens.

Strong upstream dynamics embedded within an energetic longwave trough across central CONUS interfaces with a closed low over the Upper Midwest Saturday into Sunday as a thermodynamically homogeneous warm sector/conveyor extends from the Tennessee Valley into The Thumb marked by 850 mb temps near 7C (above 90th percentile). This suggests higher confidence in high temperatures climbing into at least the mid, if not upper, 50s Saturday. Latest NWP solutions continue to drift the axis of strongest CVA further west which translates to greater spatial displacement of the surface low and QPF bullseye closer to western Lake Michigan or eastern Wisconsin. Winds veer west-southwesterly Saturday afternoon with the passage of the system's cold front. Forecast soundings reveal some lag between the development of a shallow mixed-layer with a flip to cold advection and the arrival of drier air. Low-grade instability arises within several thousand feet of saturation that should be enough to touch off a few additional showers anchored to the frontal slope/FGEN until stratus settles in through the overnight hours.

A subset of solutions continue to glance precip through from the Ohio Valley system late Saturday night and into Monday morning, but most of this activity remains too far east to be of much impact locally. Did include Chance PoPs with a steady transition from rain to snow as column cooling extends into the daylight hours Sunday. As temperatures crawl into the mid to upper 30s Sunday, any full transition to snow will produce inconsequential accumulations should enough snow fall on grassy/elevated surfaces through the first half of the day. Potential then exists for lake effect snow streamers Sunday night into Monday with cyclonic northwesterly flow.
Confidence in this outcome is rather low as bands conditionally struggle to extended into the forecast area based on current projected low-level wind trajectories. Monday should be the coldest day of the forecast period with lows in the mid 30s under thermal troughing. Next ridge and accompanying moderation in thickness values arrives Monday night into Tuesday while dry conditions likely prevail though mid-week with near-normal temperatures.

MARINE...

The central Great Lakes are under the influence of a southerly pressure gradient within the warm sector of a system over the northern plains. The relatively mild air is keeping stable conditions across the marine zones and expect wind gust potential to stay below 30 knots through this evening. A low pressure system is then expected to develop tonight and lift out of the the mid Mississippi River Valley and arrive over Lake Michigan tomorrow morning. This system will drag a cold front across the central Great Lakes bringing widespread rainfall and an uptick in south-southwest wind speeds along the front during the afternoon/evening. Wind gusts may reach gales occasionally, but the expected shorter duration of these gusts precludes any headlines at this time. Troughing overtakes the region with west to northwest winds ushering colder air for the remainder of the weekend with the main frontal system off to our east. Precipitation chances will be limited to lake effect snow showers Sunday evening into Monday across the southeastern half of Lake Huron with the favorable flow. The cold air brings greater instability over the lakes, but gust potential should top out around 25 knots or less for the early week period with a weak surface pressure gradient field.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 11 PM EST Saturday for LHZ421.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for LHZ422.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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