Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Bluff, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:21PM Monday December 16, 2019 1:23 AM CST (07:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:15PMMoonset 11:59AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 901 Pm Cst Sun Dec 15 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds around 5 kt becoming north toward daybreak. Light snow likely especially from chicago southeastward. Waves 1 ft or less.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest after midnight. Slight chance of snow in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ740 Expires:201912161030;;852153 FZUS53 KLOT 160301 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 901 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>743-161030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Bluff, IL
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location: 42.28, -87.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 160459 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1059 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

UPDATE. 835 PM CST

Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Livingston, Ford, Iroquois and Benton counties in collaboration with WFO ILX and DVN. Expecting snow amounts through the overnight of up to 2-4" in these counties. The most persistent frontogenetically driven banding will set up in the advisory counties, yielding steady light to moderate and perhaps briefly heavy snowfall rates, with visibility down to 1/2 to 1 mile at times.

For areas to the north of the advisory, have been monitoring observational and radar trends off to the west and now within the CWA. Top down saturation of very dry antecedent air is occurring, with light snow now occurring here at the NWS office in Romeoville. It appears overall that light accums up to one inch near and south of I-88 corridor and up to 1-3" I-80 and south are more probable. Transient mesoscale banding and weaker overall forcing, especially with northward extent, as well as drier air fighting the forcing, will lead to the south to north gradient. The forecast snowfall amounts have been increased slightly from the previous forecast, with a nod toward aforementioned observational trends and recent RAP/HRRR runs.

The several hour period of snow through about 3-4 AM will cause snow/slush covered roadways given temperatures down in the 20s. The most pronounced travel impacts are expected where localized amounts up to 3-4" are possible in a fairly short duration, which is within the advisory counties. Have issued a SPS for locations north of the advisory, with lesser snow amounts. However, some travel impacts are likely due to well below freezing temps supporting accums on untreated roads, especially those less heavily traveled. The snow will end before the morning commute, so have gone with a 6 AM end time of the Winter Weather Advisory. It is possible though that some snow/slush cover will remain on less traveled roads, something to keep in mind for the morning drive.

Castro

SHORT TERM. 307 PM CST

Through Monday night .

An impressive east-west oriented snow band currently extends from northeast KS through central MO and into south central IL this afternoon. Light snow continues to spread northeastward across central IL which is expected to reach the area later this evening (7-10pm timeframe). The heavier snow bands are expected to remain south of our area.

This lead wave pushes through overnight, with sufficient isentropic lift overspreading the warm front for accumulating snow across the area. Currently expect mostly a light coating to half inch for areas north of I-80 and totals gradually increasing to 1-3 inches as you head south. Uncertainty remains concerning possible mesoscale banding resulting in locally higher snowfall totals up to an inch for some areas. The latest HRRR is hinting that a heavier band could set up just south of I-80, so it will be worth watching over the next few hours if amounts need to be adjusted a tad higher for some areas. Winds will thankfully be light, so visibility reductions would mainly be a concern under the heavier bands.

Expect this first wave to push out of the area by 6-7am with some lingering flurries possible into the morning hours. A brief lull is expected through the day on Monday before a secondary (and more southerly) wave grazes our southern counties that evening. There is a possibility that this stays south of our area, but a few more tenths of an inch of snow are possible across our far southeastern counties.

Petr

LONG TERM. 157 PM CST

Tuesday through Sunday .

Trough digging into the northeast U.S. at the start of the long range period will provide for a glancing blow of some cold air mid week. Medium range models are in good agreement in lifting the upper trough out late in the week with broad upper ridging/zonal flow developing over much of the country late in the week into the weekend. This should result in temps moderating to above average late in the week through the weekend and into early next week. Given the expected lack of snow cover and recent cool bias in the NBM, could see temps warmer than forecast over the weekend and into early next week. Pattern looks dry through period with little meaningful risk of any precipitation.

- Izzi

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Aviation forecast concerns:

- Period of light snow and IFR vis/MVFR ceilings through around 10Z.

- Potential for lingering high-end MVFR ceilings Monday morning.

Regional radar mosaic depicts a broad area of light snow from eastern IA across much of northern/central IL and IN at 0430Z. Dry low levels have taken a little while to saturate across the Chicago metro, though snow finally now reaching the surface. While heavier banded snowfall was occurring south of the terminals across central IL/IN, surface observations indicate widespread IFR visibilities in the 1-2SM range across much of northern IL, and this is expected to affect the terminals for the next few hours. Ceilings were generally MVFR, though with some IFR across the southern Chicago metro area, such as GYY. Snow should taper/end from west to east, by about 08Z for RFD and 10-11Z for Chicago sites. High-res guidance indicates higher MVFR ceilings may linger into Monday morning, especially from Chicago eastward. Improvement to VFR ceilings is expected by midday/early afternoon, with mid and high clouds remaining across the region.

Weak surface high pressure ridge remains just north and northeast of the forecast area, resulting in light/variable winds at this time. Winds should gradually settle to a northerly direction by morning, as low pressure moves through the lower Ohio Valley. winds may turn 010-020 for a time Monday afternoon, though speeds should generally remain less than 10 kts.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . Winter Weather Advisory . ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 until 6 AM Monday.

IN . Winter Weather Advisory . INZ019 until 6 AM Monday.

LM . None.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK . TWITTER . AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 21 mi24 min NW 7 G 8 23°F 1020 hPa (+0.0)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 29 mi34 min NNW 6 G 7 27°F 23°F
CNII2 32 mi24 min N 6 G 7 26°F 21°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 41 mi54 min NW 1 G 1.9 24°F 1018.9 hPa22°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL10 mi29 minVar 36.00 miOvercast with Haze25°F18°F75%1021.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi32 minN 03.00 miLight Snow26°F19°F75%1021.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL21 mi33 minN 33.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist24°F21°F88%1020.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI22 mi31 minN 41.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F21°F85%1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7W7
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NW5NW6W7W7NW7W65Calm4S3CalmSE4CalmS3CalmSW4Calm3W4NW43
1 day agoN3NW4NW4CalmCalmNW4NW5NW6NW7NW7NW7
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2 days agoSW9SW7SW6SW4SW6SW4W3W4W4CalmE5SE5SE4SE5E4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.