Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Bluff, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:19PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 12:44 AM CDT (05:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:33AMMoonset 12:08AM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 849 Pm Cdt Tue May 26 2020
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:202005271015;;807700 FZUS53 KLOT 270149 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 849 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-271015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Bluff, IL
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location: 42.28, -87.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 270523 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1223 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

SHORT TERM. 324 PM CDT

Through Wednesday night .

With an uncapped environment this afternoon, any minor forcing has been able to initiate convection within the CWA. The tail-end of clockwise rotating mid-level cloud deck originating from convection over KY/TN late Monday afternoon is likely associated with a weak mid-level impulse that is forcing convection across northwest Indiana this afternoon. With uniform convective-layer flow of 20-30 knots, motion is slow enough that storms are becoming outflow dominate. However, a lake-breeze boundary is providing enough extra assistance to extend the life of this activity, and should do so through about ~5 pm. Otherwise, isolated showers and storms can be expected into early evening across the far western CWA closer to better, but still relatively weak, forcing from a sheared mid-level wave west of the CWA.

Another lull in activity is expected through much of the night into Wednesday morning the absence of diurnal heating and any larger scale forcing as the upper low remains stalled around Oklahoma. However, as has been seen for the past two days now, even subtle weak impulses could induce pockets of convection in the region. Will therefore mainly slight chances for thunder with the notion that most locations should remain dry through the period.

For Wednesday afternoon, it's rinse and repeat from today as daytime heating should erode any capping by early to mid afternoon. By this point, a northward moving trough axis rotating around the upper low is expected to be nearing or possibly crossing the CWA. Resultant scattered thunderstorms will be slow-movers, with general storm motion to the north at around 15 mph. PWATs of 1.8" combined with this motion again supports a localized heavy rain threat. Also like the past couple days, locally gusty sub-severe winds will be possible with descending cores. Activity will likely fester through the night as the mid-level trough begins to pivot and stall in he vicinity of the CWA.

Kluber

LONG TERM. 247 PM CDT

Thursday through Tuesday .

Heavy rain and flooding possible Thursday into Friday

Similar to previous days, spotty showers and thunderstorms are possible late Thursday morning into the afternoon with greatest activity along localized boundaries and opportunistic forcing. Coverage of showers/thunderstorm activity should increase markedly Thursday evening as an upper-level trough and associated cold front approach from the northwest. Considering 1). weak steering flow, 2). moisture pooling ahead of the front with PWATs approaching 1.8", and 3). freezing levels at or above 13,000 feet with weak lapse rates below, rainfall production Thursday evening may be very efficient with rainfall rates in excess of 2" per hour possible. In fact, the overall synoptic picture Thursday evening looks quite similar to May 17th earlier this month. The main unknown at this point is where exactly the front (and hence overlap of best forcing and diurnal instability) will be located Thursday evening. Needless to say, the Thursday timeframe will warrant close monitoring given antecedent wet conditions.

Cool Down Expected Friday through this Weekend

In the wake of the cold front, temperatures Friday through Sunday will be noticeably cooler than the past week with highs in the lower 70s. With relatively weak northwesterly winds, lake breezes each day will likely bring temperatures down to the upper 50s along the lakeshore. Lows overnight are expected to dip into the mid to upper 40s.

Warming Trend Next Week?

Next week, ensemble model guidance is in fair agreement that deep ridging will become established across much of the central United States leading to warming temperatures across the Great Lakes. The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook features about a 50% chance of above normal temperatures as well as below normal precipitation, though such patterns typically do feature at least some precipitation potential.

Borchardt

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

The main aviation weather concerns this period are:

* Timing a lake breeze this afternoon into the Chicago-area terminals * Potential for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms * Additional chances for mainly showers and lower cigs developing towards the end of the extended ORD/MDW TAFs.

Persistent VFR mid-deck should linger tonight. Surface winds range from southeast to southwesterly and wouldn't be surprised for ORD/MDW to occasionally show a 160-170 wind direction tonight although speeds will remain under 8 kts. Winds should then trend a bit more southwesterly through the morning hours. Have pushed up the timing of a southeast wind shift with the lake breeze a bit this afternoon, although timing does remain a bit uncertain.

We'll then turn our attention to the convective potential during the afternoon. Forcing mechanism today seems a little more defined with a disturbance currently drifting northwest out of the Ohio River Valley. Still seeing a good deal of disparity in the various hi-res solutions, but wouldn't be surprised to see showers and storms pop a bit earlier today. Wasn't confident enough to make notable changes to the inherited PROB30s, however. Will continue to monitor guidance trends tonight, but some TEMPO groups may be necessary as confidence in timing increases.

As a cutoff upper low drifts a bit closer to the region, additional showers will be possible overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Think that the better chances look to occur just outside the extended ORD/MDW TAFs at this point. Cigs will trend slowly downwards during this time, with some potential for MVFR towards 28.12z.

Carlaw

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 21 mi45 min S 2.9 G 6 61°F 1014.2 hPa (+0.7)
OKSI2 28 mi105 min NW 1 G 4.1 79°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 29 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 8.9 78°F 69°F
CNII2 32 mi30 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 76°F 64°F
JAKI2 37 mi105 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 77°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 41 mi57 min S 5.1 G 6 76°F 1014.1 hPa67°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL10 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair67°F60°F79%1013.1 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi53 minS 510.00 miFair77°F66°F69%1014 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL21 mi54 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F64°F66%1013.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI22 mi52 minS 310.00 miFair68°F62°F81%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6W3CalmCalmCalmSE5SE4SE7SE8SE8SE11SE9SE9SE8SE11SE10
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1 day agoE3S4S5SW5S4S6SW9S12
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2 days agoCalmSW6SW4SW4SW5SW7SW644SW3SW7E8SE7SE6SE6SE9SE10SE10SE7E4E3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.