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LOZ044 Expires:202405152115;;253190 Fzus51 Kbuf 151350 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 950 am edt Wed may 15 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-152115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 950 am edt Wed may 15 2024
This afternoon - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers in the evening. Areas of fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Areas of fog in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to around 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 160145 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 945 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rain showers come to an end this evening. Patchy fog is possible overnight and Thursday morning, especially in low lying areas.
Warmer conditions return Thursday with mostly dry conditions to finish out the work week, though afternoon scattered showers will be possible both Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

930 PM Update...

Radar imagery shows rain showers are beginning to dissipate over the region. CAMs suggest a few pop up showers are still possible over the eastern finger lakes region, therefore left chance Pops in the forecast to account for this. Otherwise updated sky grids using satellite imagery as overcast skies remaining over most of the region with a portion of clearing over the twin tiers. Also made minor changes to temperatures and dew points using current observations. Remaining forecast is on track at this time.

630 PM Update...

Still some steady rain across Oneida County so increased PoP north of the NYS Thruway through this evening. Latest model guidance and forecast soundings are showing minimal clearing tonight in the cloud cover, with abundant low level moisture in place and stationary front draped over Central NY. May even see some pocket of very light rain or drizzle overnight near the vicinity of the front over Central NY.

300 PM Update...

Showers will continue to dissipate from south to north this afternoon and evening. Most will be dry during the overnight hours, though some stray showers will be possible in the Finger Lakes region. A low pressure system will spin off the coast, but it should be just far enough east to keep showers out of the region. Skies do scatter out some overnight and with moisture from recent rain showers, fog will be possible, especially in the lower elevations.
Conditions will be drier across NEPA and the Catskills, so fog is not expected there. Temperatures will be mild tonight, only falling into the 50s.

Fog lifts out early in the morning on Thursday. A ridge begins to build into the region and will bring mostly dry conditions. There will be a stationary front stretched across the region and the aforementioned coastal low nudges northward. These two features will support scattered showers, mainly in the late morning and afternoon hours. While models do show limited instability and very weak shear, there likely will not be enough of either to support thunderstorms, so thunder was removed from the forecast. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy over the majority of the region. Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s as warmer air moves into the region.

The frontal boundary drops south overnight and showers come to an end by the late evening hours as the ridge continues to build into the region. Conditions may become favorable for valley fog as skies will stay partly clear through most of the overnight hours.
Overnight lows will once again be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
215 PM Update...

A weak low pressure system pushing NE through the central Great Lakes will bring another chance for rain showers Friday. The kicker here is high pressure in the low and mid levels centered over Newfoundland is progged to push into the region from the NE. How strong and quick the high pressure moves in will determine how far east the rain showers are able to travel.
Current guidance is starting to show better agreement that the high will keep rain showers mostly west of I-81 on Friday, with the best chances over the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.

Friday night, showers may push farther east into the CWA as the low departs to the NNE, but they should be light and scattered.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

Saturday is trending drier on the latest GFS/EURO/CMC model runs as deep moisture saturation moves south with a cutoff low developing over the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys. Drier air works its way into the region Saturday morning, which should limit rain shower chances. Didn't want to make large wholesale changes to the PoPs for Saturday given guidance has only recently become better aligned. Used NBM PoPs as the base and reduced chances by 15-20% across the area. Hopefully this trend will continue and we will see a dry Saturday. Clouds will still be present with SE low level flow bringing Atlantic moisture into the region, keeping temperatures cool, climbing into the mid 60s across NEPA and upper 60s to mid 70s across CNY, with warmer temps in the Mohawk Valley.

The dry trend continues into Saturday night with a stronger ridge of high pressure building into the area from the surface to the upper levels. Temps will be in the low to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
245 PM Update...

The latest guidance suite is starting to give us some cohesion on the weather pattern for early next week after several previous runs of wildly different solutions. High pressure is progged to develop to the north of a cutoff low that will slowly sink to the SE through the Carolinas and into the Atlantic as the early week progresses. This setup puts the high over our region, keeping us mostly dry through the period. Again, given this agreement in models is new, didn't want to make drastic changes to the PoPs forecast for the period. Left some rain chances in on Sunday given the east and northward extent of the cutoff low could bring some rain showers on Sunday, and reduced PoPs below slight chance Monday into Tuesday morning given the dry air and high pressure over the region. The next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday or Thursday as a cold front moves into the region from the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be spring like, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A stationary front will remain over Central NY tonight into Thursday. Forecast confidence is low at this time for conditions during the overnight hours. IFR conditions for visibility is expected and the highest confidence for IFR conditions to occur is at SYR, ITH and ELM, however, how restrictive the fog becomes and how low ceilings will get overnight and into early Thursday morning is still in question. VLIFR conditions through the early morning hours is a possibility, but as already mentioned, forecast confidence is not high enough at this time to include in this forecast. Overnight, if there are occasional breaks in the overcast cloud layer, and with all the recent rainfall, this will lead to thick fog developing. The uncertainty exists on how low visibilities will drop and how quickly fog develops, because if the clouds do not clear out, then fog will be less dense. Any fog that does develop clears out by around 13 - 14z Thursday morning, though MVFR ceilings may linger at some terminals.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Only a slight chance of showers; mainly VFR.

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but restrictions still possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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