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LEZ166 Expires:202312030915;;801178 Fzus61 Kcle 030218 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 918 pm est Sat dec 2 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis.. A stationary front will be nudged further south of the lake as a ridge averaging 30.00 inches edges southward overnight. The next low 29.60 inches will move northeast along the ohio river valley into western ny by Sunday evening. A ridge averaging 29.90 inches then extends over the lake Monday into Monday night. Another low 29.70 inches arrives on Tuesday. A ridge averaging 30.10 inches moves over lake erie Wednesday into Thursday.
lez165>167-030915- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border- 918 pm est Sat dec 2 2023
Overnight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 030217 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 917 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will move east of the area early tonight before another low pressure moves northeast across the Ohio River Valley on Sunday.
A ridge will briefly push over the area on Monday before another system impacts the region for Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

9:15 PM EST Update...

The forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. No changes appeared necessary. Will continue to use a Special WX Statement to highlight where patchy, dense fog is expected to be most-prevalent across our CWA tonight.

7:35 PM EST Update...

Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. Model forecast soundings depict a lowering and strengthening low-level inversion through daybreak Sunday via maximized low-level WAA just aloft, associated with isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of a front that will linger in vicinity of the Mid and Upper OH Valley. This inversion evolution, low-level moisture advection, and limited nocturnal cooling will allow a stubborn stratus layer to expand downward and eventually make contact with the surface, especially in the higher terrain of NW PA and northern OH. As a result, widespread mist and patchy fog development is expected through about daybreak Sunday morning in our land and marine zones. Any fog and mist should dissipate by late Sunday morning via limited diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer. Our sensible weather grids were updated accordingly.

Previous Discussion...

Low pressure centered over the area will continue to drift east through late this evening. Much of the precipitation chances remain isolated to near the lakeshore where weak surface convergence has allowed for enough lift to maintain some light showers. In general, as the low moves east, a nose of dry air in the mid levels will push over the area, allowing precipitation to end. The caveat with this however is that an inversion in the low-levels will result in the trapping of surface moisture and ultimately the lingering dreary conditions. This moisture shouldn't have any additional impacts until late tonight into Sunday as the potential for fog and/or low stratus develops. Overall confidence in the location of this is not high so opted to cap it at patchy with this update. Will continue to monitor trends through the evening, but as of this update cloud ceiling heights are already less than 1kft in most locations and expected to continue to lower. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.

On Sunday, another low pressure system tracks northeast into the Ohio River Valley and is expected to bring an additional round of rainfall. Models continue to suggest the strong upper-level trough strengthening the low, so opted to increase winds a tad by Sunday afternoon into the evening with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible. Highs on Sunday will climb into mid 40s to low 50s with the coolest air in NW OH. This low should move east of the area by Sunday evening, allowing for a westerly flow to become established and advect colder air over the area. Right now models suggest 850mb temperatures near -5C to push east across Lake Erie Sunday night, which will result in marginal lake induced instability and the potential for continued rain showers in the typical snowbelt areas. A few flakes may mix in across higher elevations, but no accumulation is expected as overnight lows drop into the mid 30s. The remainder of the area should begin to dry out overnight Sunday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Large upper-level trough encompasses much of the region with one short wave trough rounding the base in central Appalachia and to the mid-Atlantic region and another more compact shortwave trough moving southeast across the southern Great Lakes on Monday. Cool air aloft (850mb temps around -5 to -6 C), along with lift from the shortwave trough, should be sufficient in supporting lake effect showers across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Monday through Monday night.
Precipitation should be mostly rain in Northeast Ohio with some snow mixing in for Northwest Pennsylvania, especially overnight.
Temperatures will be near normal (highs in low 40s, lows around 30).

On Tuesday, another large upper-level trough builds in, with the base of this trough diving well into the southeast CONUS. The surface low is expected to move southeast somewhere across the southern Great Lakes or Ohio Valley, with precipitation expected during the day. Confidence has increased in precipitation chances, with PoPs in the 60-80% range areawide on Tuesday, despite relatively low QPF forecast (around 0.05-0.1"). Some snow could mix in depending on the low track, especially for locations farther east (e.g. Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania). Some light lake effect snow may ensue Tuesday night. Temperatures are expected to be a couple degrees cooler Tuesday and Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
An upper-level ridge and associated surface high pressure build in and across the region through the end of the week. Even so, this doesn't mean a precipitation-free forecast as light lake effect lingers on Wednesday, and then a weak shortwave trough traverses the eastern part of the area Wednesday night and Thursday, with light snow possible. The next low pressure system approaches from the southwest by Saturday, with temperatures warming up to around 50 by Friday/Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our region through 00Z/Mon. Simultaneously, at the surface, a ridge centered over central QC retreats gradually NE'ward as one low moves NNE'ward from the TN Valley to western NY, strengthens, and consolidates with a second low that should move NE'ward from the central Great Plains. Our regional surface winds trend variable or NE'erly around 5 to 10 knots through ~16Z/Sun.
Thereafter, S'erly to SW'erly winds around 10 to 15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots, are expected to develop from west to east through ~18Z/Sun and persist through the end of the TAF period.

Widespread low clouds resulting in MVFR to LIFR ceilings are forecast through the TAF period. Widespread mist and patchy fog with MVFR to LIFR visibility are expected through ~15Z/Sun.
Periods of drizzle are possible before widespread and steadier light rain overspreads our region generally from west to east between ~13Z/Sun and ~20Z/Sun in association with the complex surface low pressure system and attendant/relatively-strong disturbance aloft. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far-NE OH and NW PA Sunday afternoon, when the low pressure system's warm sector may briefly overspread that area.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periods of rain and/or snow Sunday night through Thursday.

MARINE
Low pressure over central Lake Erie pulls away from the area to the east, with northeast winds of around 10-15 knots persisting tonight. Another low moves east across the Lake Erie on Sunday, with westerly winds of around 20 knots developing Sunday afternoon and persisting through early Monday afternoon. It's very likely a small craft advisory will be needed for this period, especially east of The Islands. West winds weaken to around 15 knots Monday afternoon with waves of around 4 feet continuing east of Avon Point through Monday night. High pressure ridge builds in late Monday night and departs to the east by Tuesday. Winds briefly go south to southeast on Tuesday, quickly going northwest Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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