Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Westfield, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:10PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:40 PM EDT (00:40 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 11:13AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 132 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
This afternoon..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ040 Expires:201908212115;;991990 FZUS51 KBUF 211732 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 132 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-212115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westfield, NY
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location: 42.32, -79.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 212258
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
658 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will push through the region tonight. While this could
spark a few more scattered showers or thunderstorms, it will bring
an end to a stretch of warm and muggy conditions. A weak wave of low
pressure may produce a few more showers Thursday, mainly south of
the thruway. We will then experience spectacular weather Friday
through the upcoming weekend with little cloud cover... Comfortable
temperatures and low humidity.

Near term through Thursday
Radar imagery showing a few widely scattered showers and storms
across the southern tier and western finger lakes early this
evening. These will continue through mid evening before moving out
of the area and weakening. Meanwhile an area of active convection
over southwest ontario may reach western ny by late evening if it
holds together. Similarly, convection over eastern ontario may reach
the north country by late evening if it holds together. A few of
these storms may contain heavy downpours with a moist environment
still in place.

A cold front will then gradually push to the south across our
forecast area overnight. Other than a very modest 30kt low level jet
and some convergence near and ahead of this boundary... There really
is not much forcing to support widespread pcpn. A strong h25 jet
will pass to our north... But it will be in the 'wrong' place to give
any additional lift from the upper levels. It is interesting to note
though... That most if not all of the guidance packages are grossly
under estimating the strength of the ul jet. Aircraft measurements
from across minnesota this morning measured winds >160kts with this
jet... But upper air soundings have only been able to 'capture' winds
of 115 to 120kts. As mentioned though... The position of the jet is
more important and this is not favorable for significant weather
production. In any case, the passage of the low level frontal
boundary may continue to support a few scattered showers overnight,
with the highest chances over and east of lakes erie and ontario
where the lakes provide better nocturnal instability.

Thursday will feature improving conditions for areas north of the ny
thruway. Farther south, the latest guidance is now more aggressive
with a weak baroclinic wave moving along the frontal zone. This wave
may bring a few showers to the southern tier and western finger
lakes, with plenty of cloud cover lingering. Otherwise... It will
become increasingly comfortable as dew points in the lower 60s
during the morning will drop through the 50s during the afternoon.

Meanwhile... Afternoon highs will reach the mid 70s at lower
elevations and around 70 on the hills.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
The first taste of fall-like conditions will be felt across the
forecast area during this period. Cold air advection continuing
behind the front will keep in place a much cooler airmass for Friday
and also Saturday. How cool will it be? Well, h850t are forecast to
fall from +11c to +7c Thursday night, that's chilly (single digits
at h850) for august standards.

Friday, with a cool nnw'erly flow filtering in across the region and
much warmer lakes, it will result in a conditionally unstable
airmass for any lake effect processes. However, with only a thin,
shallow layer of moisture left and strong subsidence any lake
response will be very limited, if anything at all. The most likely
scenario, with steep low level lapse rates, will be some diurnally
driven flat fair weather cu. With that said, look for dry weather
across all locations, with a mixture of afternoon clouds and
sunshine. With a much cooler air mass in place, look for highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s, which will roughly be 5-8f below normal
for this time of year.

Friday night, canadian sourced high pressure will provide light
winds and clear skies overnight. In fact, it will be an excellent
night for star gazing, if you get a chance head outside and make use
of a telescope if you have one. The only thing weather wise will be
some interior valley fog across the southern tier and to a lesser
extent east of lake ontario in the black river valley. With clear
skies and excellent radiational cooling look for lows to fall back
in the upper 40s to low 50s by daybreak.

Saturday, more of the same as cool nne flow will reside across the
forecast area with highs only expected in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Saturday night, another spectacular night is on tap with clear skies
and light winds. Lows will generally be found in the low 50s, with a
few pockets of upper 40s across interior sections of the southern
tier and east of lake ontario. Sunday, a gradual warming trend
begins as the broad canadian sourced high slowly slides east. This
will allow return southerly flow to develop across our region which
will encourage a return to near normal highs, mid and upper 70s.

Sunday night, the center of the surface high pressure slides further
east to new brunswick and prince edward island. However, it will
continue to maintain dry conditions as we head into the new work
week. Also, it won't be as cool overnight with lows expected in the
50s to low 60s by sunrise Monday morning.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
A return to above normal temperatures is likely during the long
term period.

Otherwise, medium range guidance is not in good agreement and
diverge with respect to how quickly the ridge slides further
east and out to sea, and how quickly the next trough and
associated moisture approaches from the west. The GFS remains
fastest with this overall scenario and brings increasing chances
for convection into our region. Meanwhile, the ECMWF lies on
the other side of the guidance envelope and keeps the ridge
intact and our region totally dry through Tuesday. Keeping this
in mind, have held pops to only a chance showers and
thunderstorms for the time being with all the uncertainty beyond
Monday.

With the above said, the combination of general airmass modification
and strengthening warm air advection will lead to a day-to-day
warming trend through this period with highs climbing into the low
to mid 80s.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Widely scattered showers and storms will continue through mid
evening across portions of the southern tier and western finger
lakes. An area of thunderstorms across southwest ontario may
approach western ny late this evening if they hold together. A few
thunderstorms may also move out of eastern ontario and into the
north country late this evening.VFR will prevail through the
evening hours, with any brief MVFR ifr conditions limited to in and
near thunderstorms.

Overnight a cold front will move slowly southeast across the region,
with a few more scattered showers possible. Low stratus may develop
for a few hours behind the cold front late tonight and Thursday
morning, with MVFR to ifr CIGS possible across the higher terrain
while the lower elevations stay mainlyVFR. A weak wave of low
pressure will ripple along the front Thursday, and this may bring a
few additional showers to the southern tier and western finger
lakes with mainlyVFR CIGS vsby.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local ifr conditions each late night and
morning.

Marine
A southwesterly flow will be in place across the region this evening
ahead of a cold front will become wnw behind the cold front later
tonight, with a brief period of stronger winds centered near
daybreak Thursday. This will produce marginal small craft advisory
conditions on lake ontario.

Wnw winds over the shorter fetch of lake erie will build waves 2-3
feet tonight and Thursday, while a longer fetch and slightly
stronger wind flow over lake ontario will bring waves up to 4-5 feet
on the southern lake ontario shoreline. Small craft advisories have
been issued. Winds and waves will diminish Friday, with good boating
conditions expected over the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes this evening.

Strengthening west to northwesterlies in the wake of the front will
increase wave action and combine with already high lake levels to
produce significant shoreline erosion and flooding late tonight
through late Thursday afternoon. A lakeshore flood warning is
now in effect for wayne, northern cayuga and oswego counties.

Since winds will be more westerly and not as much onshore, the
lakeshore flood watch was dropped for niagara, orleans and
monroe counties.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning from 5 am to 5 pm edt Thursday for
nyz004>006.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for loz043-
044.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 2 pm edt Thursday for
loz042.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for
loz045.

Synopsis... Hitchcock rsh
near term... Hitchcock rsh
short term... Ar
long term... Ar jla
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock jla rsh
tides coastal flooding... Rsh jla


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 18 mi40 min WSW 16 G 19 75°F 1010.9 hPa (-0.0)
EREP1 28 mi52 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9
45142 - Port Colborne 34 mi100 min WSW 18 G 19 75°F 75°F3 ft1010 hPa (-0.5)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 39 mi52 min 1010.7 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 54 mi58 min SW 12 G 16 75°F 78°F1011.2 hPa66°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY22 mi47 minWSW 1010.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1011.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E3----------W7--S4S5Calm----S7W9W11W10
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1 day agoCalmS5S3--------SE3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmSE3SE5SW5N6NW7N9N73--N3Calm
2 days agoS6NE3S11S15
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--SW10----S5SW5S6SW5SW6--W10
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W10--W11SW10W7SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.