Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stottville, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT...Surface high pressure remains anchored just northeast of the region near the coast of eastern New England.
Meanwhile, a stationary front remains draped south of the region over the mid Atlantic States. Without any forcing for precip nearby, it looks to stay dry into the start of the day today.

IR satellite imagery shows a band of mid and high level clouds over far southern areas. Some additional lower clouds are still ongoing in some areas, especially for the high terrain. For areas that saw some clearing, some patchy fog has been developing and this may linger through about sunrise or so.

Overall, the pattern today is fairly similar to yesterday, with nearly zonal flow in place. The low level flow will be out of the south and temps aloft will be slowly warming through the day. With more sun expected compared to yesterday, temps should be a few degrees higher. Most valley areas will be in the low to mid 70s, with 60s for the high terrain. The warmest temps will be across northern valley areas where the most sun is expected.
Some CAMs suggest a brief shower could develop over the Adirondacks later today (similar to yesterday). Will mention an isolated shower, but any precip looks very spotty and brief, as forcing is weak and instability is limited.

For tonight, it will continue to be fairly quiet with a partly to mostly cloudy sky and continued zonal flow aloft. Any location that sees breaks in the clouds could have some patchy fog develop again. Lows look to be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
On Tuesday, temps and heights aloft will be slowly rising through the day. A warm front will be start to approach from the southwest and isentropic lift will be occurring. The flow aloft will be starting to become more southwesterly and an upper level disturbance within the flow will be lifting towards the area.
The combination of all of these features will be allowing for some passing light rain showers on Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, from southwest to northeast. Precip looks fairly light and no instability in place should keep any thunder from occurring. Rainfall rates look manageable and no flooding or hydro issues are anticipated, with most spots seeing under a third of an inch. With the clouds and possible precip, temps may be a little cooler than Monday, but still seasonable in the 70s. Dewpoints will be creeping up into the 60s so it will start to feel a little humid. It will remain muggy and mild into Tuesday night with plenty of clouds and lows in the 60s as well.

Our area will be within a warm sector for Wednesday, as the warm front lifts north of the area. Temps aloft will be fairly warm, with 850 hpa temps reaching +15 to +18 C. This will make for afternoon highs in the 80s with it will feel like the upper 80s to near 90 in some valley areas with the humidity. Heat Risk will be in the Minor to Moderate Categories, so some heat impacts are possible.

In addition, there may be a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms around, although the best forcing will still be off to the west, so activity will be fairly scattered. Models suggest around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE will be available, but the best lift and shear may still be off to the west closer to the Great Lakes. AI/ML models agree that the best threat for damaging storms look west of the area for Wednesday as well. Will mention a chance for showers and thunderstorms, but the threat for strong storms looks low at this time and most spots may not see anything until Thursday. Wednesday night will be another mild and sticky night with lows well into the 60s to near 70 in many areas.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures Thursday with chances of showers and storms, some potentially severe.

- Daily rain chances continue into the weekend with near normal temperatures Fri/Sat moderating back above normal Sunday.

Discussion:

Upper level trough and surface low will be just to the west of the area as we start the long term period, which will set us up for an active day in terms of storm chances and warmth. Ample southwesterly flow at the surface and low-levels ahead of the trough will allow advection of 15-20 degree Celsius temperatures at the 925-850 hPa layer, which will could result in a very warm, muggy day depending on cloud cover and speed of the approaching trough/surface front.
Current forecast maintains PM highs ranging from the low/mid 70s (terrain) to mid/upper 80s (valleys). With dewpoints climbing into mid to upper 60s ahead of the front areawide, this will allow peak afternoon heat indices to climb into the low to mid-90s in some valley areas, which is near heat advisory criteria.

In addition to the very warm temperatures, shower and storm chances will also be on the increase as the approaching trough/surface front interact with the warm & humid air mass that will be in place. There is potential that storms could become severe, though it will be heavily dependent on frontal timing and if they can take advantage of peak heating during the early to mid afternoon. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts as details on this become more clear.

The surface front will pass through the region Friday with weak surface high pressure in tow, bringing in a cooler air mass and less humidity. Despite the high, chances of diurnally driven PM showers (20-40%) are expected with the upper level trough lingering across the region through the day.

Heading into the weekend, additional chances of showers are expected Saturday with another shortwave crossing the region. We will dry out for Sunday, though strengthening return flow will allow above normal temperatures to quickly return to the region in time for the work week.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12z Tuesday...Patchy fog and low ceilings affecting mainly KGFL/KPSF will burn off within the next 1-2 hours, with VFR conditions expected areawide through mid-morning. As we head through the day, low MVFR/IFR stratus will begin to gradually spread north across the region as moisture increases in the low levels with southerly flow. These conditions will linger through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be calm to south/southeast at 5 KT or less early this morning, with southeast winds 5-10 KT in the late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.