Stottville, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stottville, NY


December 8, 2023 3:12 PM EST (20:12 UTC)
Sunrise 7:10AM   Sunset 4:23PM   Moonrise  3:29AM   Moonset 2:42PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 946 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 946 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure will slowly move offshore today through Saturday. A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through Sunday night. High pressure then builds in on Monday and remains in control through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stottville, NY
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 081802 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 102 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will slowly lift northward today into Saturday, bringing milder temperatures despite considerable cloudiness. A strong cold front will bring a period of heavy rain and gusty winds late Sunday into Sunday night, with rain possibly ending as snow Monday morning as colder air surges into the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

UPDATE
As of 100 PM EST, our area of low stratus continues to erode and it has now cleared out as far north as portions of the Adirondacks to the Capital District and into the Berkshires.
These clouds should begin to erode across the Upper Hudson Valley over the next couple of hours. The remainder of the afternoon will feature some passing mid and high clouds. We nudged high temperatures up a bit due in part to the breaks of sun as well as current temperatures above previously forecast highs in some areas. Expect highs to generally range in the mid-30s to upper 40s with the higher readings across the south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The amount of cloud erosion tonight is in question as considerable high clouds are building into our region and the boundary layer southwest winds are expected to be quite weak, while surface winds should be south to south southeast, along with lingering low level moisture. While some breaks in the clouds are likely in some areas, clouds may again be slow to exit in some areas, especially the Hudson River and points east.
Some patchy fog is also possible into early Saturday morning.

Then, if there are lingering clouds and patchy fog, with the very weak southwest boundary layer winds and weak sun angle, some areas may take quite a bit of time to clear out during the day Saturday. There is a lot of uncertainty and quite a bit of inconsistencies in sources of guidance/ensembles but favoring the cooler side of guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the mid 40s to near 50 with lower 40s higher terrain.

Amplifying upper trough begins its approach Saturday night and strengthening warm advection, as well as boundary winds shifting more south southwest and increasing, will help temperatures warm on Sunday. However, increasing low level jet forcing, moisture advection, upper dynamics proximate to the upper impulse going negative tilt, and isentropic lift, will result in rain spreading over our region through the day. The high amplitude upper trough suggests moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean will result in anomalous moisture and the very strong low level jet forcing will produce a widespread heavy rain with potential localized flooding.

In addition to the heavy rain, winds will become gusty, especially in higher terrain, where winds could gust over 40 mph by Sunday afternoon. Some chances for even stronger winds but how much mixing of the strong winds to the surface in the heavier rain is in question. Highs Sunday in the mid to upper 50s with upper 40s to near 50 higher terrain.

Upper energy begins to exit and lift north and east Sunday night as the leading edge of a tight boundary layer thermal gradient and wind shift track through our region Sunday night. There are still disagreements in guidance as to the timing of the onset of the passage of the low level cold front, whether it is before midnight or after midnight. Either way, cooling will be occurring by daybreak Monday.

Some conditional instability and the strong low level forcing suggests a line of shallow convection or narrow cold frontal rain band, that could even have a rumble of thunder. Some enhanced gusty winds and one last burst of heavy rain is possible. Rain will change to snow in the southern Adirondacks and perhaps parts of the eastern Catskills, with an inch or two in the highest peaks by daybreak Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Our main focus for the long term period will be on Monday when a changeover to a period of heavy, wet snow is looking increasingly likely on the backside of our impressive cold front from Sunday night. Confidence is increasing for a secondary sfc low to not only develop along the boundary Sunday night but for it to develop in the equatorward entrance region of a north-to-south oriented 130-150kt jet streak positioned on the leading edge of the parent trough.
As the parent trough tracks into the Northeast and trends from a neutral to a slight negative tilt early Monday morning, strong upper level divergence will likely occur, allowing the secondary low to undergo cyclogenesis and deepen. Guidance now indicates it closes off up to 700hPa by 18 UTC Monday as it tracks just to our south/east and pushes into northern New England. This will allow much colder air to quickly advect eastward as gusty sfc winds shift to the northwest. As a result, thermal profiles crash by 12 - 18 UTC Monday and with precipitation still occurring in the deformation zone north/west of our exiting low, precip likely switches to heavy, wet snow Monday morning. This unfortunately coincides with the Monday morning commute so slippery travel conditions are looking increasingly likely, especially for the higher terrain and hill towns in eastern NY and western New England.

Wet-bulb zero heights drop down to about 500ft by 12 - 15 UTC so elevations as low as 500ft will likely see some snow accumulations.
Even valley areas of the Greater Capital District could see a changeover to wet snow Monday morning as temperatures and dew points drop into the low to mid 30s. With such favorable dynamics in play, forecast soundings also show high omega/lift intersecting the dendritic snow growth zone (DGZ) so the hill towns in the Helderbergs, Taconics, and foothills of the southern Adirondacks/Catskills as well as the higher terrain will likely see a period of moderate to even heavy snowfall rates. Thermal profiles favor lower than climo snow to liquid ratios (SLRs) which will likely yield a wetter/heavier type of snow instead of light/fluffy.
The probabilistic WSSI graphics (PWSSI) indicate that these higher terrain and hill towns 1000ft in elevation and higher may experience some snow loading issues given the weight of wet snow. Current PWSSI highlight the southern Adirondacks in its 40 - 60% range for impacts while the northern/eastern Catskills and southern Vermont range 20 - 30%. Helderbergs/Taconics and other hill towns are only in the 10- 20% range. Overall, snow amounts look light to moderate with WPC Winter Storm Outlook showing the greatest probabilities for warning level snow amounts (7" +) limited to the southern/western Adirondacks. This is likely tied to the low SLRs and rather short duration for heavy/wet snow confined mainly to late Sunday night through midday Monday. Some snow loading issues from heavy/wet snow will need to be monitored for these higher terrain areas.

To exacerbate matters, west-northwest winds will be strong and gusty throughout the day Monday with gusts reaching 30-40mph, potentially higher in the higher terrain areas. Wind advisories may also be needed. The strong winds and weight of heavy wet snow may necessitate winter weather advisories or even isolated winter storm warnings to help us message snow loading impacts for Monday, even if exact snow amounts technically fall below warning criteria.

The rest of the week looks fairly quiet and seasonable with potentially an Alberta Clipper dragging an arctic air mass into the Northeast mid-week. Depending on timing and the thermal/moisture gradient, the front may lead to snow showers or even snow squalls but this is still a low confidence forecast.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 18Z Saturday...Low stratus continues to decrease in coverage resulting in VFR conditions at ALB/PSF/POU while MVFR cigs and intermittent MVFR vsbys with mist persist at GFL. The erosion of low clouds will extend farther north in the coming hours, with VFR conditions likely at GFL by 21Z, although few- sct low clouds at 2-4 kft will also remain across the region.
MVFR cigs return this evening by 03Z Sat, except at ALB where sct cigs are more likely to persist overnight. MVFR cigs develop at all terminals by 12Z Sat, with IFR possible at GFL/PSF toward the end of the TAF period.

Winds will generally be light this afternoon through tonight, with south to southeast winds at 3-6 kt at all terminals becoming calm to light and variable at GFL/POU after 00-03Z Sat.
Speeds begin to increase out of the south at all terminals after 12-15Z Sat, while low-level wind shear will be near criteria and may exceed 30 kt out of the south to southwest overnight and Saturday morning across the region.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Definite RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts
Likely RA
SN.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY
A strong cold front is expected to move across the region Sunday evening bringing a period of heavy rainfall to the area.
Total rainfall from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning will range from 2 to 3 inches across the area. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out across the higher terrain of the Catskills.

Some rivers could approach bankfull or even minor flood stage.
This is supported by latest river ensemble guidance from the HEFS/NAEFS. If this threat materializes will depend on much rain falls, how much snow can melt out of higher elevations, and frozen versus non frozen ground. There could be some nuisance urban and small stream flooding in low lying areas as well.

The latest WPC Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook placed the entire hydrologic service area within a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. We will continue to carefully monitor trends.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 23 mi42 min 0 47°F 30.1234°F
TKPN6 24 mi54 min SSE 2.9G5.1 42°F 38°F30.1535°F
NPXN6 36 mi42 min S 5.1 44°F 30.1535°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 85 mi54 min S 4.1G5.1 44°F 47°F30.19
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 86 mi54 min S 2.9G5.1 45°F 51°F30.13

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Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg

Wind History from PSF
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York
   
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Coxsackie
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Fri -- 02:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:00 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:31 PM EST     4.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:42 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:35 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
3.6
1
am
3.1
2
am
2.3
3
am
1.7
4
am
1.2
5
am
0.6
6
am
0.2
7
am
0.5
8
am
1.4
9
am
2.4
10
am
3.2
11
am
3.8
12
pm
4.2
1
pm
4.2
2
pm
3.6
3
pm
2.7
4
pm
2.1
5
pm
1.4
6
pm
0.7
7
pm
0.5
8
pm
1.1
9
pm
1.9
10
pm
2.6
11
pm
3.1



Tide / Current for Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Hudson
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Fri -- 02:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:35 AM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:33 AM EST     3.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:42 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:05 PM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:44 PM EST     3.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
3.1
1
am
2.6
2
am
1.9
3
am
1.4
4
am
0.9
5
am
0.5
6
am
0.5
7
am
1.1
8
am
2
9
am
2.8
10
am
3.4
11
am
3.7
12
pm
3.7
1
pm
3.4
2
pm
2.7
3
pm
2
4
pm
1.4
5
pm
0.9
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
0.9
8
pm
1.6
9
pm
2.4
10
pm
3
11
pm
3.3




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Albany, NY,



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