Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stottville, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Key Message:

- The growing season begins Thursday, May 1 across the Upper Hudson Valley, where temperatures may fall into the lower to mid-30s tonight. A frost advisory may be needed for this area.

Discussion:

UPDATE
As of 1130 AM EDT...The forecast remains in good shape with this update with only minor adjustments needed to ensure the forecast reflects the latest obs. See previous discussion for additional details.

Previous Discussion: A cooler and drier air mass will continue to filter into the region through today. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes bringing mostly clear weather through tonight. A tight pressure gradient associated with the departing system will result in breezy conditions through this afternoon with occasional gusts between 25 and 35 mph. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the 50s and 60s for most areas.

High pressure will be overhead tonight resulting in a mostly clear and dry night with just some passing cirrus clouds at times. With the dry air mass in place, ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected to occur which could result in temperatures falling into the 30s in many areas with some upper 20s in the higher elevations, especially Adirondacks. The growing season starts on May 1 for the Upper Hudson Valley, where temperatures may fall into the lower to mid-30s. A frost advisory may be needed for these areas if confidence in these temperatures increases.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Upper level ridging will crest over the region on Thursday as high pressure slides to the east to off the New England coast.
Dry weather looks to continue through the day as surface flow shifts to a southerly direction. This will lead to a milder afternoon with highs reaching the 60s to lower 70s.

An upper level shortwave will approach the region from the Ohio Valley Thursday night as a low pressure system tracks northeastward over the Great Lakes lifting a warm front across the region. Increasing forcing for ascent could result in some passing showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. Thursday night will be a milder night with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Warmer and more humid weather returns on Friday as we transition into the warm sector of this low pressure system. The passage of the upper shortwave could provide enough forcing for some additional scattered showers and some thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours. The cold front approaches from the west Friday night but may slow its eastward progression. Regardless, a few lingering showers are also possible Friday night. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 70s to lower 80s except mid to upper 60s across the Adirondacks and southern Greens. Temperatures fall back to the 40s and 50s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Message:

- Showers likely Saturday, with shower chances lingering into Sunday-Tuesday especially south of I-90.

Discussion:

Wave of low pressure tracks northeast along frontal system south of the region Saturday through early Sunday, bringing showers or a period of steady rain to much of the region (60-80% chance of rain). Lower confidence on rain chances for Sunday into early next week, as there is significant uncertainty regarding development of upper level closed/cut-off low over Ohio Valley/mid Atlantic region, and resulting placement of associated frontal boundary and additional waves of low pressure. Continuing chances (20-40%) for showers near and south of I-90 Sunday into Tuesday, with generally less than 20% chances to the north. These rain chances could increase if aforementioned closed low and associated frontal system remain closer to the region.

Temperatures should be a bit below average, with highs mainly in the 50s/60s through Monday and overnight lows in the 30s/40s.
Some slight warming possible Tuesday should clouds/showers shift farther south and west, with some lower 70s possible in valley areas possible, especially if some breaks in the clouds develop.

AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 12z Thursday...Cold front will continue dropping southeast of the TAF sites early this morning. A period of MVFR Cigs will be possible at KGFL, KALB and KPSF through 13Z/Wed as a secondary front passes, and there could be borderline IFR Cigs at KPSF. MVFR Cigs should become VFR by 13Z-15Z/Wed at KALB/KGFL, however could linger as late as 15Z-16Z/Wed at KPSF.
VFR conditions should then prevail at all TAF sites after 18Z/Wed through 12Z/Thu.

West/northwest winds 10-15 KT with gusts up to 25-28 KT will veer slightly into the northwest to north by late morning.
Winds will gradually decrease to 8-12 KT with gusts to around 20-25 KT this afternoon, then will quickly diminish after sunset to less than 5 KT.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER
Cooler and drier air returns today behind a cold front.
Northwest winds will be around 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph into the early afternoon hours before diminishing late in the day. Relative humidity values lower to 25 to 40 percent during the afternoon hours. Given the misalignment between the lowest RH (afternoon) and strongest winds (morning) and following a soaking rainfall in some areas on Tuesday, we collaborated with the NYS DEC and decided to hold off on any special weather statement for enhanced fire spread today.
Following coordination with WFO BOX, a special weather statement has been issued for Berkshire and Litchfield counties, where little rainfall occurred.

Dry conditions will continue on Thursday, but winds will generally be light on the order of 5 to 15 mph. Rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms are then expected Thursday night into the upcoming weekend. This should limit additional fire weather concerns.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.