Sunday, February16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Park, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:06PM Sunday February 16, 2020 11:36 PM EST (04:36 UTC) Moonrise 1:57AMMoonset 11:57AM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 920 Pm Est Sun Feb 16 2020
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Light rain with light snow likely in the evening...then rain after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:202002170930;;647464 FZUS63 KDTX 170220 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 920 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.30 inches, will move into the region tonight. The next low pressure system, 29.70 inches, moves through the western Great Lakes Monday night roughly on a line from Milwaukee to Georgian Bay by Tuesday morning. Moderate northwest wind brings colder air back into the region Tuesday night through mid week. LCZ460-170930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Park, MI
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location: 42.34, -82.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 162340 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 640 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

AVIATION.

A strong anticyclone centered within the 875-700mb layer will drift northeastward from the Mississippi River near far eastern Iowa at 00Z directly into Southeast Michigan by 12Z Monday morning. Flow trajectories will remain decidely anticyclonic throughout the night and will persist even through the midday period Monday as the high eventually softens into a ridge axis over Lake Huron by 18Z Monday. In fact, flow trajectories will remain anticyclonic right until the evening hours. Strong surface based stability develops tonight causing winds to become light while steadily veering to the east by daybreak. Extreme subsidence bubble forecasted to work down the atmospheric column with high static stability in the lowest 5.0 kft agl through 00-02Z Monday evening. Midcloud deck will be slow to build downward during the afternoon, before low level jet arrives and deep column saturation instantly occurs.

For DTW . Prevailing VFR conditions tonight with light winds becoming easterly by Monday morning. Low confidence in any Lake Erie based cloud impacting DTW Monday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 303 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

DISCUSSION .

Mainly clear skies associated with high pressure will gradually give way to increasing clouds as area of isentropic lift in advance of approaching shortwave works east into the area. Given the visible satellite representation, the trajectory should bring increasing clouds to the southern forecast area first with an expansion into the remainder of the area overnight. Will maintain the current low temperature forecast which ranges from the low teens north to low 20s far south.

Clouds will continue to increase Monday as this system encroaches on the area. Precipitation, starting as snow (or a rain/snow mix south) will eventually build into the area late in the day and expand over the whole area during the evening. A transition from snow to rain still appears to occur relatively quickly, particularly over the southern third to half of the forecast area. By midnight, pretty much all rain is expected. Will maintain current snow accumulations with 1 to 2 inches possible far north to less than an inch south to the higher terrain near the M-59 corridor. To the south of this, boundary layer temperatures appear to climb enough to preclude any snow accumulations.

Once this system passes, a large area of high arctic high pressure will build across the CONUS and lead to a rather quiet stretch of weather for Southeast Lower Michigan. This will bring a abrupt drop in temperatures on Tuesday after starting the day relatively mild in the mid 30s to around 40. Cold weather can be expected through most of the week with highs only in the 20s Wednesday/Thursday and lows in the single digits to teens. Once the center of this high passes south and the east of the region late in the week, temperatures will moderate (back into the 30s Friday and most likely 40s Saturday).

MARINE .

Light northwest winds tonight as high pressure builds into the Central Great Lakes. Light and variable winds become easterly during Monday as the next low pressure system moves through the region into Tuesday morning. The system brings warm air and a mix of rain and snow before moving east. Moderate northwest wind then brings cold air back into the central Great Lakes. The increased mixing depths should have no problem supporting gusts reaching around 30 knots over the open waters of Lake Huron, along with some scattered lake effect snow shower activity into Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY .

Low pressure will bring widespread precipitation to the area late Monday through Monday night with snow changing to rain from south to north across the area on Monday evening. Total precipitation amounts are expected to average between a quarter to one third of an inch. With temperatures only climbing into the mid to upper 30s with the passage of this low, melting of the existing snowpack will also be limited. Hence, no issues with flooding are anticipated at this time.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . SF HYDROLOGY . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 10 mi36 min W 4.1 G 5.1 32°F 1021.3 hPa (+1.7)
AGCM4 29 mi48 min 33°F 32°F1020.1 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi156 min SW 8 G 8 34°F
TWCO1 47 mi26 min WSW 7 G 8
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 49 mi36 min WSW 11 G 11 33°F 1021.6 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi43 minWNW 410.00 miFair33°F19°F56%1021.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi41 minWNW 510.00 miFair32°F18°F57%1021 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi40 minW 612.00 miFair31°F21°F66%1021.4 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair30°F26°F85%1021 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi43 minW 310.00 miA Few Clouds31°F24°F76%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W10W9W11
G19
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W9W7W7W6W6W8W6W6W66
G15
W7W7W9W9W4W5W3W4W4
1 day agoSW10SW10SW8SW6SW8SW8SW8
G18
SW11SW10
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S15SW14
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2 days agoNW8
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NW9NW8NW5W4NW6NW4NW4NW5N8NW8NW84CalmW8SW7SW9SW9SW9SW7SW9SW11SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.