Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Park, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 5:02PM Monday December 16, 2019 2:52 AM EST (07:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 350 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy this evening becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered flurries in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy. A chance of. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly Sunny becoming mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201912160930;;838348 FZUS63 KDTX 152050 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.10 inches, moving into the region tonight bringing more favorable marine conditions through Tuesday afternoon. Surge of arctic air driven by a polar low will bring possible northwest gales for Wednesday along with some freezing spray. Surface low ahead of this arctic air will average 29.70 inches. High pressure, 30.50 inches, quickly follows Wednesday night into Thursday. LCZ460-160930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Park, MI
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location: 42.34, -82.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 160448 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1148 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

AVIATION.

Thick high based cloud will blanket the region tonight and Monday. Low level moisture associated with a system tracking through the lower Ohio valley will largely remain south of the state, although some reduction in cigs near 4-5k ft will be possible particularly in the Detroit corridor. Meaningful snowfall associated with this system expected to remain south late tonight and Monday morning. Winds remaining light through the period.

For DTW . Some lowering of thicker mid cloud will occur toward morning, leaving a window for possible cigs near or just below 5000 ft during the mid-late morning hours. This moisture may translate into some flurries during that time, but accumulating snow will remain south of Metro.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for cigs aob 5000 ft late tonight through Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 331 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

DISCUSSION .

Healthy diurnal cloud and flurry response ongoing within the lake- enhanced moisture and instability plume across the central Lakes region this afternoon. With sunset, the lake clouds will slowly thin and dissipate this evening, while high and mid-level clouds spill overhead.

The first of two confluent waves - currently over the mid- Mississippi Valley - will slide to the south of the region tonight. This wave is responsible for the incoming upper-level cloud cover. The tropopause-level jet axis remains positioned to the south of the state - preventing the ribbon of low-level ascent from making a northward push overnight. Expect the light snow shield to remain well south - but some flurry activity may make it through the rather impressive dry layer centered on 3kft to the surface toward daybreak across the very far south.

The second more substantial wave - currently over the southwest CONUS - will quickly eject out over the southern Plains on Monday and follow within the confluent flow over the Ohio Valley. An axis of deformation in the 600-500mb layer will sweep across the southern half of the forecast area. However, the jet core remains south of the area with this wave as well - precluding much in the way of a northward advancement of the snow shield. A couple hours of light snow are possible near the border - otherwise, just a shield of mid- clouds with plenty of virga within the restricted region of mid- level forcing.

Attention turns to the northern stream with a sharpening upper wave sweeping southeast across Ontario late Tuesday and Wednesday. Trends have been slightly more amplified. Given a more amplified look of the incipient wave on GOES WV imagery - expect the wave to come in a bit stronger and slower in the next cycle or two as better remote sampling occurs. The associated low-level airmass is respectably cold - 850mb temps below -20C across the region. There should be a rather nice lake-effect response on Superior and Huron starting Tuesday night and continuing Wednesday. Lake Michigan will also get into the act to a lesser extent. The timing of the influx of cold air being overnight complicates the inland impacts as the convective response will be somewhat muted. That said, there is some signal in the model soundings to keep an eye on a ribbon of snow showers on the arctic front Tuesday night, if the front is able to kick-up enough boundary layer moisture. Highs on Wednesday will be locked in the low-mid 20s with wind chills in the single digits . Thursday looks only slightly warmer.

Most of the guidance suite, save the GFS, indicates longwave ridging quickly follows for the end of the week into next week. Temperatures will moderate and chances for precipitation will be rather meager.

MARINE .

Small Craft Advisory conditions have come to an end as winds decrease and elevated wave action pushes away from the nearshore zones. There will be a slight backing of the winds to the southwest into this evening and tomorrow as a high pressure slides into the western Great Lakes with short wave ridging. Winds will remain light into tomorrow while a system organizes across the TN/OH River Valleys tonight into Tuesday. Little impact to the Great Lakes other than chances for light snow showers across the southern lakes. Greater surge of arctic air with a polar low will arrive Tuesday night/Wednesday morning bringing possible northwest gales across Lake Huron. The cold air in combination with elevated winds will also bring potential for heavy freezing spray across Lake Huron as well. Increasing waves will also bring an additional round of Small Craft Advisories to the nearshore zones. Arctic surge does not stick around for long as high pressure with decreasing winds follows on Wednesday night.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . Mann MARINE . AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 10 mi53 min Calm G 1.9 28°F 1021.3 hPa (-0.0)
AGCM4 29 mi53 min 29°F 40°F1020.2 hPa (+0.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi53 min S 4.1 G 5.1 30°F
TWCO1 47 mi23 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 49 mi53 min SSE 1 G 1.9 30°F 1021.2 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi60 minN 010.00 miOvercast29°F19°F69%1021.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi58 minN 010.00 miOvercast28°F21°F78%1021 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy25°F24°F97%1021.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi58 minN 010.00 miOvercast29°F20°F69%1020.3 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi60 minW 38.00 miOvercast28°F19°F69%1021.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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W6W8W4NW3W3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmN3CalmN4CalmCalmNW3N4N4N5NW6NW9NW8W9NW10W7W6W8W11
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2 days agoS6S4S5S5S4S4S8S8S6S9SW5SW5SE7S8S3S3SE3S4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.