Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Chicago, IL

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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 061910 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 110 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

SHORT TERM. 110 PM CST

Through Saturday night .

Dry and milder weather conditions are on tap through the start of the weekend, as high pressure builds across the area tonight then drifts off to the east Saturday.

Surface cold front which moved through the area overnight has pushed into the Ohio Valley early this afternoon per 18Z surface analysis. High pressure centered across the mid-Missouri Valley will spread east across the area tonight. Gusty northerly winds have eased since this morning, and will continue to diminish through the afternoon and evening hours as the surface ridge approaches. Advection of drier low level air has also allowed clouds to erode from north to south, except for parts of northwest Indiana and east central Illinois where low level parcel trajectories off of Lake Michigan continue to support stratocu. These areas will also clear later this afternoon/evening however, as winds diminish and become light and variable. Skies will be mainly clear tonight, save for some passing patchy cirrus associated with the main upper jet axis to our north. The combination or light variable or calm winds and mainly clear should allow for strong radiational cooling conditions overnight, and have thus undercut guidance mins a bit for tonight, particularly in our typical colder spots west of Chicago.

The surface ridge axis will shift east/southeast of the area by early Saturday, allowing winds to shift to the south. Low level warm advection, augmented by a considerable amount of sunshine with only patchy high clouds at times, will help temps recover back to or slightly above average on Saturday, with highs around 40/lower 40s in most areas. South-southwest winds persist Saturday night, keeping temps from falling off too much, with lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Ratzer

LONG TERM. 320 AM CST

Saturday night through Thursday .

The long term forecast period will start out relatively mild as the region will be under broad warm advection in swly flow between sfc high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region and a sfc trough/cold front across the Central Plains. Lows Sunday morning should be in the lower 30s. Prevailing southwest flow will continue through the day on Sunday as the sfc trough/cold front progression slows, blocked by sfc ridging through the sern CONUS/ern GLFMX. Highs Sunday should be in the middle to upper 40s, with the chance for temps to reach 50 F, particularly for the far southern portions of the CWA. Pcpn associated with the approaching system may begin as early as late Sunday afternoon over the far nwrn portions of the CWA as the front approaches, but better chances for pcpn, mainly in the form of rain, will begin sunday night and continue into Monday night. As the cold front pushes across the region on Monday, winds will shift from swly to nwly through the afternoon, with strong cold advection setting up in the wake of the fropa. Temperatures should drop off quickly Monday night while nwly winds strengthen, with gusts of 25-30 mph likely. By Tuesday morning, temperatures will range from the middle teens northwest to the middle 20s southeast. Pcpn will transition from rain to snow as the colder air filters in behind the cold front, with some light accumulation possible. Following the passage of this system, the main forecast concern will be temperatures for the middle of next week. Latest long range guidance continues to suggest lows in the single digits across portions of the area north and west of a line from Chicago to Pontiac, with 10 to 12 F south and east of this line. There will likely be little moderation to temperatures as arctic high pressure slides across the area Wednesday and then settles into the Ohio Valley Thursday. With winds expected to remain arnd 10-15 mph, wind chill readings should be in the should may drop to -5 to -10 F for Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Conditions should begin to moderate by Thursday as the arctic high pushes into the sern CONUS and flow shifts to swly.

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

Aviation forecast concerns:

-North winds continuing to diminish this afternoon. -MVFR ceilings scatter to VFR early this afternoon.

Mid-day surface map depicts high pressure building eastward across the mid-Missouri Valley, in the wake of the cold front which pushed through the region overnight. Gusty northerly winds have steadily decreased since earlier this morning as the gradient slowly weakens, and this trend will continue this afternoon as the high approaches. Winds generally running 350-020 degrees, with speeds around/just above 10 kts currently which will continue to diminish over the next several hours. Surface ridge axis will move across the forecast area later this evening, allowing winds to become light and variable. MVFR stratocu deck at around 2500 feet is about to clear out of ORD/MDW/DPA per GOES visible satellite imagery. Clouds may linger into the afternoon at GYY, where the wind trajectory will remain off the lake, though bases will likely rise a bit. GYY will also see gusts linger a bit off the lake as well.

The surface high pressure ridge axis will shift southeast of the area by Saturday morning, with winds turning southerly (180-210 degrees) at 8-10 kts or so. VFR conditions will persist, with some occasional high clouds mainly north of the terminals associated with the upper level jet axis.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . IL nearshore waters until 6 PM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory . IN nearshore waters until midnight Saturday.



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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI	17 mi	66 min	NNE 15 G 18	33°F			1025.1 hPa (+0.4)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL	32 mi	46 min	N 12 G 13	35°F				25°F
CNII2	35 mi	36 min	N 7 G 15	38°F				23°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL	45 mi	66 min	NNW 12 G 16	35°F			1024.9 hPa (+1.2)	26°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	46 mi	56 min	N 9.9 G 9.9	35°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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S10

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S5 G8

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S9 G12

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S6 G9

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SW5 G8

SW4 G9

W3 G8

N10 G13

NW12 G18

N20 G27

NW16 G25

NW17 G23

N16 G25

N15 G22

NW12 G19

NW13 G19

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1 day ago

W8 G16

W6 G17

W6 G13

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NW7 G12

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2 days ago

SW11 G18

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SW8 G12

SW8 G11

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W7 G12

SW10 G16

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W8 G16

W5 G14

SW10 G18

W8 G15

W6 G17

W8 G18

W11 G18

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL	6 mi	11 min	NE 8	10.00 mi	Fair	36°F	23°F	59%	1026.3 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI	18 mi	13 min	NNW 8	10.00 mi	Fair	40°F	21°F	49%	1026.1 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL	18 mi	14 min	NNW 7	10.00 mi	Fair	40°F	21°F	49%	1026.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)

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S8

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NW9 G17

NW6 G19

N11 G22

N9 G19

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1 day ago

W9 G21

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NW6 G14

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2 days ago

SW11 G20

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SW7 G15

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W8

W7 G19

W13 G25

NW11 G28

NW14 G26

NW10 G26

NW12 G25

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL

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