Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:29PM Monday July 13, 2020 5:36 AM CDT (10:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:44AMMoonset 1:50PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 336 Am Cdt Mon Jul 13 2020
Today..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 ft.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
LMZ740 Expires:202007131515;;773607 FZUS53 KLOT 130836 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 336 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-131515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 130831 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SHORT TERM. 328 AM CDT

Through Tuesday .

The week starts off quietly in the weather department, with dry conditions and a warming trend through Tuesday.

Early morning surface analysis places high pressure ridge across the upper Midwest and mid-Mississippi Valley. Clear skies and calm winds have combined to produce excellent conditions for radiative cooling overnight, with many locations outside of more urban areas reporting 0-1 degree dew point depressions as of 2 am. Will likely see some areas of shallow fog develop during the pre-dawn hours, though it should dissipate fairly quickly after sunrise as diurnal warming and mixing develops. GLAMP and LAV guidance highlights areas west and southwest of the Chicago metro area for 1-3 mile visibilities, and have added patchy fog to the forecast for those locales for early this morning.

Upper level ridge is forecast to build across the region today, with mid-level height rises indicative of deep-layer subsidence across the area through this afternoon. The surface ridge axis will drift east across the cwa through the day, with the weak surface pressure gradient and light/variable winds allowing for lake breeze development by early afternoon. This will keep areas along the Lake Michigan shore near 80 degrees, while inland locations warm into the lower and middle 80s this afternoon with warmest temps expected to the west across north central Illinois. Despite large scale sinking air beneath the upper ridge, lingering low level moisture will support development of a diurnal cu field, making for partly cloudy/partly sunny skies by midday. These clouds will dissipate with the loss of heating this evening, with dry and pleasant weather persisting as the surface high continues to drift off to the east tonight.

Farther to our northwest, a strong negatively tilted mid-level short wave trough is progged to lift northeast from North Dakota into southern Manitoba tonight into Tuesday, with a jet streak developing into the upper Mississippi Valley. Low level southerly return flow develops into the region in response, with a 25-30 kt low level jet focused into Iowa and western Wisconsin by Tuesday morning. The best low level moisture advection is progged to remain off to our west and northwest along the low level jet axis, and ahead of a slow moving surface cold front which is expected to stretch from northern Wisconsin through Iowa and into northwest Missouri by Tuesday evening. For the WFO LOT forecast area, the main sensible weather effects will be for an increase in mid/high clouds into Tuesday as warm/moist advection increases aloft, along with warmer temps. While guidance is dry for the area, can't rule out the potential for a few sprinkles or showers, given the presence of increasing mid-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates along with a minor-amplitude short wave which appears to propagate across the upper Mississippi Valley during the day.

Increasing cloud cover will have the potential to limit temps somewhat especially across northwest/north central Illinois. Progged 850 mb temps warm to around +18C by afternoon with persistent low level warm advection, which along with forecast 925 mb temps of +22- 25 degrees would support mid-80s to around 90 for afternoon highs. Have taken a slightly conservative approach based on cloud cover concerns, from mid-80s around Rockford to the upper 80s farther south and east where cloud cover may be less extensive. A slight southeast wind component along the IL shore north of Chicago will likely allow for some limited lake cooling along the immediate shore area, but otherwise no significant lake breeze is expected.

Ratzer

LONG TERM. 328 AM CDT

Tuesday night through Sunday .

The main concerns in the long term are the severe weather and flash flooding potential late Tuesday night through Wednesday and the heat over the weekend.

By Tuesday night, surface high pressure will continue to shift to the east. Southerly flow is expected to lift north across the central plains with a cold front extending south of a broad surface low in central Canada. Convection is expected to develop along this boundary to our west and approach the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. This will be during a less favorable time diurnally but strong to severe wind gusts are still possible if it can maintain its intensity long enough, especially across our western counties.

The surface front is expected to stall out somewhere across the forecast area on Wednesday. There could a brief break in heavier precip during the morning hours before a shortwave trough approaches from the central plains, with the GFS developing a weak surface low on its approach. This combined with upper level support with the right entrance region of the jet suggests there will be a decent chance for precip across the region. PWATS upwards of 2" by Wednesday poses an increased risk for heavy rain and thus flash flooding risk with any training/slow moving cells. With regard to the severe potential on Wednesday, if extensive cloud cover and lingering precip continues into the first part of the day there could be a limit to how far north instability is able to recover. If we can get more of a break in precip/cloud cover there would be a quick recovery and an increased severe weather threat. Cannot argue with the current SPC outlook with a broad Marginal Risk across most of the forecast area to account for this potential.

Beyond Wednesday, predictability decreases as far as precip potential goes. The upper level patterns becomes more quasi-zonal with multiple weak waves traversing the upper level flow. Precip chances will heavily depend on mesoscale features and any potential MCS development across the upper Midwest.

Overall, expect the majority of the area to be dry on Thursday, with some lingering showers/tstorms possible across the far southeast downstream of the lake as the front drops south.

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging begins to build in on Friday with 90s making their return. Southerly flow returns for the weekend with highs in the mid 90s still looking favorable. This combined with mid 70s dewpoints would put us near heat advisory criteria. The ECMWF continues to favor mid to upper 90s, although it remains an outlier. One complicating factor would be any MCS/precip related cooling impacts which could prevent one or more of these days from reaching peak heating potential.

Petr

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

No significant aviation forecast concerns through this TAF period. Surface high pressure ridge axis over WI/IA early this morning will drift east across the forecast area later today.

Winds are expected to be light northerly ahead of the ridge, and light and variable farther west beneath the ridge. Some MVFR fog potential exists toward sunrise across western parts of the forecast area, near KRFD, where winds will be nearly calm early this morning. For ORD/MDW, should be a north/northeast wind under 10 kt during the morning, though weak gradient may allow for some variability in direction at times. Lake breeze will likely form by early afternoon, shifting winds more easterly around 10 kts for the afternoon. Broken VFR cu field in the 4000-5000 foot range should develop by midday.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . Beach Hazards Statement . INZ001-INZ002 until 7 AM Monday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . IN nearshore waters until 7 AM Monday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 8 mi36 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 72°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi96 min WNW 5.1 G 6 65°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.4)
45174 18 mi16 min N 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 74°F2 ft1014.9 hPa62°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi66 min N 7 G 8.9 71°F 65°F
CNII2 37 mi21 min NNW 5.1 G 6 67°F 60°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 44 mi56 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 65°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi48 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 1014.1 hPa63°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair60°F57°F93%1014.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi43 minWNW 38.00 miFair59°F57°F93%1015.3 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair64°F61°F90%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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NE8N7N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmNW3Calm
1 day agoNW4NW4453W7NW10
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56W7345W3W3CalmSW3CalmW3CalmNW4W3NW4
2 days ago34NW8NW9NW10
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NW8NW4CalmCalmNW334NW5W444

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.