Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:39PM Sunday August 25, 2019 5:04 PM CDT (22:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:40AMMoonset 4:01PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- 244 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am cdt Monday through Monday evening...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Chance of showers through the night. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 kt. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 kt becoming southwest after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 kt. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201908260315;;198813 FZUS53 KLOT 251944 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 244 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740-741-260315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 252008
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
308 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019

Short term
233 pm cdt
through Monday...

the primary weather story through the period will be the
increasing chances for rain across the area late tonight and into
Monday.

The main weather maker of interest for our area into Monday is the
mid upper level disturbance currently shifting over northwestern
mo, per water vapor imagery. This feature is expected to shift
east-northeastward over il on Monday as a larger scale trough
begins to dig over the northern plains and the upper great lakes.

As it does so, a corridor of deep gulf moisture (featuring
precipitable water values around 2") will be transported
northward up the mississippi valley tonight into Monday morning,
essentially setting up the ingredients for a wet morning across
the area.

While some scattered sprinkles, or light rain showers, will be
possible across the area late this afternoon and evening, it
appears the better moisture will not arrive until after midnight.

Therefore, we should see an uptick in shower activity later this
evening and overnight as warm moisture air advection (isentropic
upglide) continues to increase. The shower coverage will likely
peak in coverage around, or just prior to, daybreak through late
morning when the upper level disturbance moves over the area. Some
moderate to heavy rain rates will be possible with these showers
as they should be very efficient rainfall producers. This could
result in some minor localized flooding issues. Otherwise, shower
activity should become more widely scattered during the afternoon.

There is also a chance for a few embedded thunderstorms with this
activity, but lapse rates are expected to remain rather poor, so
thunderstorms should remain limited.

Another chance of showers and thunderstorms is likely Monday night
in association with the approach of a cold front.

Given we will see a great deal of cloud cover and some rain
Monday, temperatures will likely remain in the 70s.

Kjb

Long term
308 pm cdt
Monday night through Sunday...

Monday night: an upper trough axis within a developing upper low
over far southeast manitoba will shift east across the CWA during
this time. Meanwhile, as associated surface low will push a cold
front across the area. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm may
be ongoing early Monday evening in response to increasing low-level
flow and resultant WAA moisture transport ahead of the approaching
trough front. Shower and storm activity will increase across eastern
ia and northeast missouri early in the evening and expand NE into
the forecast area through the remainder of the evening into the
overnight hours.

The dynamics with this system will be seasonably strong for late
august. Meanwhile, a modestly unstable evening airmass will be
present owing to increasing mid-level lapse rates and surface
moisture. This will support broken clusters of convection along the
front and trough axis that may contain strong to marginally severe
wind gusts. Additionally, high pwat values and a deep layer below
the freezing level support very heavy rain with any thunderstorm.

Some training along the front implies at least some localized
flooding risk.

Tuesday and Wednesday: any lingering showers across the eastern cwa
at daybreak Tuesday should quickly exit to the east as the cold
front and upper trough axis clear the area. An upper low will form
and then stall over northern ontario through Wednesday, keeping the
area in continued cyclonic flow with embedded weak disturbances. With
an overall lack of moisture, the passing of any weak disturbances
should be inconsequential for precip and affect mainly just the mass
fields. The surface gradient flow between strong low pressure under
the upper low and high pressure extending into the ohio valley will
produce gusty west winds on Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday: the upper low will begin to shift NE on
Tuesday ahead of a fast-moving trough within wnw flow aloft that
will brush the area to the north on Thursday night. An associated
cold front will then stall somewhere across illinois and indiana by
Friday through Saturday. Guidance differs on the exact location over
which it stalls, but at least slight chances pops are warranted both
days with the front in the vicinity. High pressure with seasonably
cool conditions will then build back into the region for Sunday.

Kluber

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

the primary forecast concerns will be the timing of rain late
tonight into Monday, along with deteriorating CIGS during this
period.

While conditions will be quiet today, outside of a possible
sprinkle or two this afternoon, things will change tonight into
Monday. Moisture will be on the increase tonight in association
with an approaching weather disturbance. This is likely to result
in periods of rain showers shifting over northern il later
tonight, especially after 09z, and persisting through much of the
morning on Monday. With this rain we are also likely to see some
lower MVFR cigs, with a period of ifr not out of the question
through the morning. In addition to the clouds, visibilities could
become reduced in there heavier rain showers. We also cannot rule
out the potential for some embedded thunderstorms, but we have
opted to leave this mention out of the tafs at this time.

It appears that the shower activity will wane some during the
afternoon, with any remaining activity remaining widely
scattered. However, MVFR CIGS could hold over the area through the
day. There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday
night.

Otherwise, expect easterly winds tonight, shifting to the
southeast during the day on Monday.

Kjb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014... 1 am Monday to 10 pm
Monday.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741... 1 am Monday to 10 pm
Monday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 0 mi24 min E 9.7 G 14 72°F 72°F3 ft
45187 8 mi24 min E 9.7 G 14 75°F 72°F3 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi64 min ESE 13 G 15 72°F 1017.6 hPa (-1.7)
45174 18 mi34 min ENE 12 G 16 73°F2 ft1016.5 hPa
FSTI2 28 mi124 min E 7 73°F
OKSI2 33 mi124 min SSE 6 G 7 73°F
45177 34 mi124 min 75°F1 ft
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi34 min ENE 16 G 17 73°F 60°F
CNII2 37 mi19 min E 13 G 15 73°F 56°F
JAKI2 42 mi124 min E 9.9 G 15 74°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi24 min E 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 1018 hPa56°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi46 min NE 8.9 G 14 73°F 1015.9 hPa61°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NE8
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N11
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G16
N8
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi69 minE 810.00 miFair72°F55°F55%1016.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi71 minESE 1110.00 miFair74°F57°F56%1017.9 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi72 minE 10 G 1710.00 miFair76°F54°F47%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9E9NE8NE8NE7----E7------SE8--SE5E4SE6SE8E11SE9SE10
G17
SE12
G17
SE12
G18
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E8
1 day agoNE7
G16
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G16
NE9NE6N4--Calm--NW4NW3--CalmCalmSE3SE4E9SE12SE8
G19
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E11E11
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E9
2 days agoNE10
G17
NE8NE7NE6------NE5--NE3----NE5NE6E8--E8NE8E8NE7NE8
G18
E9NE9N7
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.