Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:18PM Monday July 26, 2021 11:54 PM CDT (04:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 8:16AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 933 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 26 2021
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest. Mostly clear. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming west after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:202107270915;;514265 FZUS53 KLOT 270233 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 933 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-270915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 262334 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 634 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

SHORT TERM. 253 PM CDT

Through Tuesday night .

Sunny and very warm conditions will continue the remainder of the afternoon, especially for inland areas where temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. However, slightly cooler conditions (lower 80s) will be felt near the lake due to a light onshore breeze.

Quiet and very warm weather will continue on Tuesday as well, though the remnants from a developing MCS well to our northwest in MN tonight may spread some increased early morning mid to high level cloudiness overhead. I also cannot totally rule out a couple of early morning light showers or sprinkles from this decaying MCS making it into far northern IL early Tuesday. However, with the MCS expected to weaken and decay overnight as it moves southeastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, it appears this threat locally will be low. I have thus opted to keep a dry forecast through the day Tuesday. We will also have to keep an eye on any outflow from this overnight MCS trying to shift southward down the lake into Tuesday. Confidence is not the highest with any outflow making it into our area, but if it does, it could result in a period of onshore flow and cooler conditions near the lake on Tuesday. Otherwise, it appears capping will be strong enough during the afternoon to keep the threat of developing thunderstorms out of the forecast.

Our next small chance for showers and thunderstorms over northern IL could come as early as late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Again confidence is not the highest that we will see much activity during this period, but with increasing lower-level moisture, I cannot rule out the possibility. This will especially be the case if any type of mature MCS is able to develop to our northwest and track southeastward late Tuesday night.

KJB

LONG TERM. 320 PM CDT

Wednesday through Monday .

The key messages in the extended remain the warm and humid conditions Wednesday and Thursday, shower and thunderstorm chances late Wednesday night through Thursday, as well as dangerous swimming conditions for Southern Lake Michigan beaches developing behind a cold front Thursday afternoon through Friday.

The Central Plains ridge remains locked in place midweek with northwest flow over the Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure begins to shift to the southeast at the start of the period allowing southwest flow and associated moisture advection to return, setting the stage for a warm and muggy Wednesday. Expect highs in the low 90s and dewpoints in the 70s resulting in heat indices nearing 100 degrees. As is often the case in the summer under this northwest flow pattern, the high temperature forecast will be conditional on any overnight MCS/convection that could develop and sweep an associated outflow boundary through the area. Did add some slight chances for lingering precip from overnight mainly north of I-88. If there is a bit greater coverage of showers/storms Wednesday AM that could limit some of our warming. There is also a low chance for a few showers/storms Wednesday afternoon, but lower confidence on that given strong capping that looks to be in place. Continues to be a favorable signal for an MCS to move through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a Marginal Risk for severe storms in place for much of the area to account for this. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with any storms that develop which could create localized instances of flooding.

12Z Guidance has trended a bit slower shifting the cold front out of the area on Thursday, with a noted increase in blended PoPs along and south of I-80 Thursday afternoon and evening. Given the warm unstable airmass in place ahead of the boundary and decent shear along the northern edge of the higher CAPE axis could support strong to severe storms again Thursday that will need to be monitored if this signal continues.

Expect increasingly gusty north winds off of Lake Michigan behind the front Thursday afternoon. This will result in noted temperature drop and an increase in wave action and dangerous swimming conditions for southern Lake Michigan beaches. So will continue to advertise a High Swim Risk for late Thursday afternoon through Friday.

Beyond Thursday, the eastern side of the ridge sags a little in the wake of the departing wave with temperatures becoming a bit more comfortable in the 80s and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. A weak disturbance brings additional low precip chances Saturday night into Sunday.

Petr

AVIATION. For the 00Z TAFs .

Aviation Forecast Concerns:

* Light/variable winds early this evening becoming southwest. Breezier southwest winds expected Tuesday.

* Low probability for a convective outflow boundary to sag into the region from WI Tuesday which could result in some easterly wind component for a time.

Early evening surface analysis indicates high pressure ridge across northern IL. Despite weak gradient and light wind regime, lake breeze boundary struggled to push west across ORD this afternoon (essentially bisecting the east side of the field as of 23Z). Wind should trend west/southwest there this evening (as well as at MDW) as the lake breeze circulation weakens further, with light southwest winds expected overnight into Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, the surface ridge axis will continue to drift south of the terminals, with somewhat breezier southwest winds expected through the period. Capping inversion aloft noted in forecast soundings limits the depth of the mixed layer, so have capped gusts around 15 kts, but could see some gusts in the 15-20 kt range if we ultimately mix a little more deeply. One potential low probability complication could be if a convective outflow boundary (from convection across MN/WI which would likely decay due to capping farther south before reaching IL) were to make it into the area. 18Z HRRR indicates such a scenario with a boundary arriving midday and shifting winds to the northeast/east through the afternoon. Convection has yet to really develop and grow upscale across the upper Mississippi Valley this evening however, and no other guidance depicts such a boundary moving this far south. Later shifts will continue to monitor, but at this time southwest winds appear to be the most likely scenario across the terminals through the TAF period.

Otherwise, only VFR mid-high cloud debris is expected from convection to our north Tuesday morning.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 0 mi45 min 9.7 G 9.7 75°F 74°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 1 mi115 min SSW 7 G 7 78°F
45187 8 mi45 min 73°F 72°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi55 min W 8 G 9.9 81°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.0)
45174 18 mi45 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 74°F1015.5 hPa
OKSI2 33 mi115 min Calm G 4.1 84°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi55 min SSW 11 G 12 83°F 67°F
CNII2 37 mi40 min S 5.1 G 8.9 81°F 59°F
JAKI2 42 mi115 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 82°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 44 mi45 min WSW 6 G 8 81°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi45 min S 7.8 G 12 75°F 73°F1015.9 hPa68°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi85 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair74°F61°F64%1014.6 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi62 minWSW 69.00 miFair73°F61°F66%1015.9 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi63 minSSW 410.00 miFair81°F64°F57%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3NW3NW3W4W4W3W333NW3N34SE6E7E8SE8SE10SE8S10SE5SE3SW3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmW4CalmW33NW43NW5NW4NW664NW7NW7--SW7NW6NW64CalmCalmNW3W3
2 days agoSW6SW9SW5SW7SW8SW9SW7SW8SW8SW9
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N4NE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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