Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 3:35 AM   Moonset 3:35 PM

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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 956 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Saturday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the evening - .then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late morning and early afternoon - .then becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon - .then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly Sunny in the morning becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 041029 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 629 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Morning fog and low clouds give way to a warm Saturday with highs in the low to mid 70s.

- Scattered showers and possible non-severe thunderstorms this evening through Sunday morning.

AVIATION

The departure of a high cloud deck to the east has prompted radiational cooling atop a shallow moist layer, which has resulted in widespread LIFR conditions from PTK north to mbS. The onset of daytime mixing will support a steady erosion of these clouds through the course of the morning. Remnant moisture will then develop a scattered to broken VFR based cu field during the afternoon. A very slow moving frontal boundary will progress into Se Mi tonight. An influx of low level moisture and latest model guidance is supportive of low cloud redevelopment. Overall weak instability along this front will limit thunderstorm chances.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Southeasterly winds today will drive weak instability across the airspace after 21Z. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within this environment. Forecast probabilities suggest a 20 percent chance across the southern portions of the airspace.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms late today and overnight.

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet today. Moderate tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

DISCUSSION...

Despite the showers and clouds yesterday, high temperatures were able to sneak into the lower 70s across most areas. Extremely dry airmass noted with the 00z APX raob, and some of the mid level dry air has/will make inroads into southeast Michigan. However, cool northeast flow off Lake Huron and lingering low level moisture looks sufficient to saturate the low levels, and deep enough moisture (5+ kft layer) to potentially trigger stray light rain showers, especially toward the southern Michigan border, as some of the deeper moisture over Ohio attempts to work back north late in the day, ahead of a weak cold front moving through from the western Great Lakes tonight. With surface capes under 1000 J/kg today and the mid level dry slot, do not see EQL levels getting high enough to generate thunderstorms during the daytime, but a slight chance of non-severe storms appears warranted this evening/tonight with the modest height falls and the slightly negative showalter values tracking through. Stability will be on the increase 15-17Z Sunday as the front clears the State.

Despite a fair amount of clouds today and the early morning fog, will allow high temperatures to reach into the mid 70s across most locations, based on the forecasted 925 mb temps of 17 C.

Westerly confluent upper level flow Sunday night preceding an upper level ridge axis arriving early next week, supporting dry weather on Monday and likely during the daylight hours of Tuesday before a warm front brings widespread showers and possible thunderstorms Tuesday evening/night.

MARINE...

An area of high pressure centered over the region this morning is resulting in a weak gradient with light winds and waves across the region. Elevated dew points within the stable environment have resulted in areas of dense fog across Lake Huron and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until noon today. The gradient increases this afternoon as the high departs east, with wind organizing out of the southeast late today into tonight. A stalled front lifts north as a warm front tonight as a weak low moves from the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern Great Lakes. The system then sends a cold front through early on Sunday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wind shifts to northwesterly behind the front Sunday afternoon, peaking at around 15 to 20 knots. High pressure then builds in to bring quiet marine conditions for Monday and much of Tuesday. The next warm front moves into the area late on Tuesday with stronger easterly flow developing ahead of it.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LHZ361>363-421-422- 441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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