Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:29PM Sunday January 19, 2020 4:44 AM EST (09:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:55AMMoonset 1:19PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 342 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
.gale warning in effect until 7 am est this morning...
Today..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers in the morning...then numerous light snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Numerous light snow showers early in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny becoming partly Sunny in the afternoon becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202001192115;;179293 FZUS63 KDTX 190842 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 342 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.40 inches, will continue to track to upstate New York by Sunday morning. This system will drive an associated cold front across Lake Huron Sunday morning. High pressure, 30.8 inches, then moves from the northern Plains Monday to the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, weakening to 30.50 inches. LCZ460-192115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 190741 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 241 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

DISCUSSION.

Trailing vorticity center on backside of sheared out upper system will pivot southeast through the forecast area early this morning and maintain light snow shower activity lift from this feature is aided by moisture flux within westerly flow from Lake Michigan. A secondary cold front will settle north to south through the area in the wake of this upper wave. Convergence along this front will most likely grab dominant Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan snow band and bring in southward. Early morning low level trajectories suggest this feature will impact parts of the northern Thumb region as it picks up just a bit more moisture crossing Saginaw Bay. Given radar trends early this morning, will increase snow chances in this area and up accumulations to at least an inch locally.

Some semblance of this band will persist as this front progresses through the region today with timing from north to south still in the 14z-22z window. Will adjust snow chances/amounts slightly based on the expected progression of this feature. Outside the Thumb, where additional lake effect activity from Lake Huron also pivots onshore during the day, expect accumulations to be an inch or less. Over the Thumb, particularly Huron county, would anticipate several inches of new snow from early this morning into the afternoon. Aside from lingering lake effect snow showers along the immediate shore of Lake Huron early this evening, expect a much drier air mass to begin shifting into the area as sprawling surface high pressure centered over the northern plains/upper midwest gradually builds into the Great lakes.

This drier pattern will hold into the middle of the week as said high pressure settles into the Ohio Valley region by Wednesday morning. Cold conditions will hold for the remainder of the weekend on into Tuesday as temperatures actually drop below average for a change this winter. Highs will range in lower/mid 20s into Monday and edge up into the upper 20s Monday while lows settle into the teens and in some cases single digits.

Upper ridging then expands over the eastern CONUS from mid to late in the week as shortwave energy gradually digs into the plains from the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will moderate into the 30s and eventually lower 40s in some locations by week's end as this system approaches the area. Precipitation chances will also increase in the Friday to Saturday time frame with a mix of rain and snow showers as the resultant upper low pressure system from this Pacific energy shift east of the Mississippi Valley. At this time, this system appears to remain largely cutoff from the northern stream storm track as upper ridging encompasses much of Canada with upper troughing displayed well east/northeast from area east of Hudson Bay on into Greenland. This will limit any significant cool down with (and in the wake of this system).

MARINE.

Colder air will continue to funnel across the lakes Sunday as a strong low pressure system moves east away from the region. West southwest winds will continue to bring gales through the early morning hours on Sunday. A trailing cold front will then be forced south across the lake Sunday morning, with winds turning north- northwest in the wake of the front. The post frontal gradient will be weakening, so wind speeds/gusts will then actually decrease slightly Sunday morning. Northerly winds then persist through the day on Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1154 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

AVIATION .

A strong and cold westerly wind will govern conditions overnight. This environment will continue to encourage the downstream flux of lake Michigan moisture, translating into pockets light snow showers and flurries through the remainder of the night. Periodic bursts of heavier snow showers remain possible, with any such activity leading to brief IFR level visibility restrictions and a quick accumulation. Outside of snow showers, prevailing MVFR conditions within an extensive low stratus canopy. Gusty westerly conditions will persist throughout the night, reaching 30 to 35 knots at times. A cold front advancing south across the area will provide a secondary focus for snow shower development on Sunday. Outgoing forecast highlights the most likely window during the daylight period to witness a period of accumulating snow and accompanying visibility restrictions. Winds becoming north-northwesterly and diminishing in the wake of this boundary.

For DTW . Intermittent light snow showers and flurries will remain in the vicinity of the airport overnight. Some minor accumulation will be possible as temperatures plummet into the 20s. Westerly winds will continue to gust within the 30 to 35 knot range tonight. A secondary shot for snow showers will exist with a cold frontal passage early Sunday afternoon. This frontal passage will bring a wind shift to north-northwest.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceilings under 5000 feet through Sunday.

* High in precipitation type as snow through Sunday.

* Moderate in exceeding crosswind threshold from 250-270 degrees tonight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for LHZ363-421- 441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair . Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ444.



DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG AVIATION . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi44 min W 16 G 24 23°F 1010.8 hPa (+2.3)
AGCM4 26 mi56 min 24°F 35°F1009.2 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi164 min WSW 31 G 34 21°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi62 min 26°F 1007.6 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SE13
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1 day
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NW14
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G12
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NW7
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G22
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G26
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G24
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G20
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G18
NW13
G18
NW12
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi51 minW 19 G 2810.00 miOvercast and Breezy22°F15°F75%1011.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi1.8 hrsWSW 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast25°F19°F81%1009.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi49 minW 18 G 237.00 miOvercast and Breezy22°F18°F86%1010.8 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi48 minW 17 G 2310.00 miLight Snow20°F14°F76%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12
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SW10SW11SW15
G26
W20
G34
W15
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--W16
G25
W11
G18
SW9W15
G27
W15
G29
W14
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1 day agoN7N5N4N5N7N44E5E6SE5SE6SE9SE7SE7SE10SE8SE8E9E11E10SE12
G18
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G30
2 days agoNW7NW8W10
G18
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G20
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G16
N7
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G18
NW7NW8N11N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.