Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 5:35PM Saturday January 23, 2021 11:26 AM EST (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:16PMMoonset 3:25AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 344 Am Est Sat Jan 23 2021
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy this evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow in the afternoon. Snow likely in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Snow likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202101232115;;350217 FZUS63 KDTX 230844 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 344 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.40 inches will slowly build into the region today into tonight. Weak low pressure will then track across the northern Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night. A stronger low will lift northeast into the Ohio River valley late Monday, leading to increasing east-northeast winds. LCZ460-232115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 231100 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 600 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

AVIATION.

There will be a continued decrease in the coverage of strato cu early this morning as high pressure expands into srn Lower Mi. With the center of the sfc high passing to the south this afternoon, there will be a backed flow to the west-southwest across Lake Mi. This may allow a few to scattered lower clouds (sub 4000 ft) to push inland, possibly affecting FNT and mbS.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low in ceilings below 5000 feet this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 358 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

DISCUSSION .

Overnight stratus has held on nicely through the early parts of the morning, with rapid erosion of cloud cover now noted via infrared across the Grand Rapids region as mid-level subsidence ahead of surface high pressure currently located over the Midwest. Expecting the continued erosion of stratus to take place (south of the thumb) as high pressure continues to work east into the Ohio Valley by this afternoon. After a very cold start to the morning marked by overnight lows in the teens and wind chills in the single digits, a modest warm up into the mid to upper 20s is expected later today along with some sunshine. As the high pressure tracks east through the evening, low-level flow will back from northwest to southwest. This will usher in low and mid level clouds across the state and will keep overnight lows slightly warmer, holding in the upper teens to lower 20s.

The next chance for light accumulating snowfall will then expand across Michigan throughout Sunday morning (after 6 AM EST) as weak system relative isentropic ascent takes place behind the departing high pressure system. Saturation will initially occur in the mid- levels on the 296-203K surfaces and will have to overcome some initial low level dry air. As the column saturates, expecting light snow to fill on across the state, with slightly better forcing noted across Flint up into the Tri Cities, where likely PoPs hold. Expecting around an inch of accumulation through the early afternoon in and around the Tri Cities, with totals holding under an inch elsewhere (half inch or under for northern Metro region south). Area of best isentropic ascent will then slide into the Thumb during the later part of the afternoon, with snow chances diminishing by the late evening.

Water vapor imagery shows one of the main features of interest for this forecast package, a pv feature just off the coast of California, set to pivot south across Baja California late in the day before ejecting east into TX/OK by early Monday morning. This will result in the development of a low pressure system interacting with a baroclinic zone, set to track north into the Ohio Valley between 00Z Tue - 12Z Tue. Plentiful moisture will eject north across the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes ahead of the low pressure system and will bring the likely chance to see accumulating snowfall for portions of SE MI starting late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Predictability of where the heaviest axis of snowfall (potential for 4+ inches) will fall remains low given it will remain sensitive to both the track of the low and trowal/deformation dynamics. WPC cluster phase space analysis shows the most likely location the axis will fall will be somewhere across southern lower Michigan or south into the northern Ohio Valley. As a result, preliminary forecasted snowfall totals of 3-5 inches will hold over the Metro region down to the Ohio border, with gradually decreasing totals north of this heavier forecasted area. Additional adjustments will be needed as the PV feature comes onshore and is better sampled by the NWS upper-air stations in the coming days.

Last, snow chances are expected to taper off later in the day on Tuesday with high pressure filling in from north to south through the midweek period. This will minimize precipitation chances to end the week while temperature trends remain seasonable.

MARINE .

Northwest winds still gusting up around 25 knots over Lake Huron will gradually diminish today, along with the snow showers. Still, the larger waves over the southern Lake Huron will lag with the unstable near surface profiles. Small craft advisories continue through 11 am for the northern/eastern tip of the Thumb region.

Light and variable winds set up this evening as a ridge of high pressure slides through tonight.

Light southerly flow expected on Sunday as weak low pressure tracks through the northern Great Lakes through Sunday night. A period of light warm advection snow likely in this time frame, but visibility's probably remaining at or above 2 miles.

A much stronger low will lift into the Ohio Valley late Monday, and will lead to increasing east-northeast/onshore flow (up around 25 knots), and small craft advisories may be needed by Monday evening and continued into Tuesday. Snow will likely overspread Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair, and possibly as far north as southern third of lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for LHZ421-441- 442.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SC DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi37 min NW 2.9 G 8.9 20°F 1029.1 hPa
AGCM4 26 mi57 min 21°F 36°F1027.7 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi27 min W 7 G 8 21°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi57 min 22°F 1026.5 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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G29
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G26
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G14
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G14
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi34 minNNW 510.00 miFair22°F6°F50%1029.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi32 minWNW 710.00 miFair21°F9°F59%1028.8 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi32 minNW 810.00 miFair23°F8°F52%1028.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NW11
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NW6NW5NW7NW7N5
1 day agoSW14W14
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W8W9W8W5NW10
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2 days agoW7
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W8SW8
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G19
SW12SW12W13SW12
G21
SW10
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.