Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 9:10PM Sunday July 12, 2020 5:33 PM EDT (21:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:02AMMoonset 12:30PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 336 Am Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon and evening. Sunny becoming mostly Sunny in the afternoon and evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202007122015;;718830 FZUS63 KDTX 120736 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 336 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A secondary cold front will move south across the region early this morning with weak and diffuse high pressure, averaging 29.90 inches, building into the area in its wake. This high will persist across the area early in the week. LCZ460-122015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 121915 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

DISCUSSION.

Will hold onto the 20 POPs for early this evening as some showers bubbles up near the MI/IN/OH triple point and the decent cu field across northern Lower diving into the Tri Cities and Thumb region. After that still have the flow becoming north-northeast off of Lake Huron with 850 mb/Lake delta T's around 12 to 13C. That in combination of the northern shortwave diving south overnight should be enough to keep the chance of showers near the Lake Huron and have the stratocu spread inland reaching most areas expect the Tri Cities, by daybreak.

That lake cloud should lift into a sct-bkn cumulus field on Monday as the surface high builds into the region. Not too much to argue about guidance temps that will be a few degrees below average on Monday. Diurnal cumulus dissipates Monday night for mostly clear skies however that boundary layer moisture is still in place over SE MI on Tuesday. Expect another sct-bkn cumulus day on Tuesday as it starts to warm with the shortwave upper ridge over Lower MI.

Models continue to trend a little later with the arrival of the next system. The bulk of the showers and storms now expected on Wednesday night with that potent mid level wave. Severe threat looks to be to the south in IL and IN with much better instability and better time to act on that instability. Wednesday looks to be fairly cloudy from both diurnal cu and plenty of debris cloud.

In the wake of that system, may be a linger shower or storm Thursday as the big ridge starts to build. Will continue to keep POPs lower around 20% at best for much of the extended. Models do not have much organized convection, if any, between Thursday morning and next Sunday afternoon on the edge of the big ridge. Highs around 90 on Friday and then low to mid 90s for next weekend.

MARINE.

Weak and broad high pressure will continue to build across the region for the early week period. Weak moisture convergence in northerly flow may promote isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder across the Lake Huron nearshore waters and portions of Saginaw Bay the remainder of today and through tonight, with otherwise dry conditions anticipated through at least early Wednesday. The northerly flow will be gusty at times around 20 knots late this evening into tonight, especially across the open Lake Huron waters and nearshore waters from Port Austin to Port Sanilac where choppy waves of 2-4 feet will also be likely. The short duration of this activity will preclude the mention of a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Winds and waves will then decrease during the day Monday and into Tuesday as lake breeze flow takes over with high pressure overhead.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

AVIATION .

Diurnal cumulus is filling in this afternoon. Predominately low end VFR cloud heights with SCT-BKN coverage will hold through peak heating. A brief isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible this afternoon across DTW/YIP, but confidence is not high enough to mention in the TAFs at this time. Bulk of activity will hold off to the south closer to the frontal boundary. Northwest winds at 5-10 knots this afternoon will veer northeasterly this evening and remain largely below 10 knots through the overnight. Northeasterly flow may usher in some additional lower clouds off Lake Huron into tonight as well. Predominately dry conditions will continue into tomorrow under light northerly winds.

For DTW . Cloud bases to start this TAF period may come in slightly below 5,000 feet then holding at 5,000 feet. Expect SCT to BKN coverage through the remainder of the afternoon before loss of daytime heating allows for decreasing cloud trend.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low to Medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through this afternoon.

* Low for thunderstorms through this afternoon.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . RBP MARINE . IRL AVIATION . RBP

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi33 min NW 4.1 G 11 80°F 1009.1 hPa (-0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi33 min N 9.7 G 12 77°F1 ft1007.2 hPa (-0.6)
AGCM4 26 mi45 min 80°F 73°F1008.8 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi93 min SSW 2.9 G 2.9 79°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi45 min 75°F 1008.7 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi40 minNNW 10 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds82°F60°F47%1008.5 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi36 minNNW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F61°F55%1009 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi38 minW 710.00 miFair80°F57°F47%1009.8 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi38 minNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F62°F50%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW10
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NW4NW4W4NW5NW3NW4NW5N4NW3N3CalmN3NW4NW7NW5NW45NW10
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1 day agoS3E6NE5SE4SW5NW7NW9NW8NW10NW8NW8NW11
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2 days agoSW4S4S5S5SE7S8NW7N3E6E5SE3S3SE5S3S7S8SW7S7S7S4W4E4SE5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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