Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:56PM Thursday July 29, 2021 10:43 AM EDT (14:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:08PMMoonset 11:14AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 956 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely late in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202107292015;;644214 FZUS63 KDTX 291356 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 956 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system around 29.80 inches over Ontario will pull a cold front through by midday with a secondary, stronger backdoor cold front moving across Lake Huron late tonight. High pressure then builds in from the west on Friday. LCZ460-292015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 291421 AAA AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1021 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

UPDATE.

As of 1020 AM EDT . Morning convection associated with leftover MCS complex that tracked southeast from Wisconsin last night continues to drift southeast away from the region late this morning. Southeast Michigan was largely spared from the worst of the impacts as the better instability gradient remained more to the southwest, although thunderstorms were able to fire across portions of the Thumb and eventually into northern portions of the Detroit metro bringing a quick half inch to a little over an inch of rain. The Flash Flood Watch is no longer in effect as the heavy rain threat has ended in the greater Detroit metro region.

For the remainder of today, it will continue to be humid as dewpoints stubbornly remain in the upper 60s to around 70 as the lingering frontal boundary slowly drifts southeast as a cold front from northern Lower into the afternoon hours. Brief window of relative clearing skies will signal a window for dry weather into the early afternoon hours as a subsidence bubble in the wake of the morning convection moves through. Water vapor imagery depicts a shearing out weak midlevel wave that will move across Lake Huron mid/late afternoon that may spark some widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly across the Thumb as the front swings through before more substantial drier air moves in by later this evening characterized by clearing skies and lower 850 hPa dewpoints. High temps top out in the lower 80s for most.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 713 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

AVIATION .

As the window for organized thunderstorms closes, the aviation forecast trends to MVFR ceiling between the departing storms and the cold front. Once the current showers move past FNT and PTK, a few showers or stray thunderstorms remain possible as the cold front moves through SE MI but with coverage and timing better suited for inclusion in later updates. Early morning satellite imagery shows high clouds clearing eastward and revealing expansion of low clouds over western Lower MI. These fill in eastward into our area in the warm sector of the surface low tracking through central Lower MI. The cold front follows and sweeps through around mid afternoon. Ceiling then lifts into VFR with the help of peak daytime surface heating on a cooler and less humid air mass. A clearing trend follows toward evening with due northerly wind picking up some clouds from Lake Huron during the night with the best chance of any ceiling restriction occurring east of the terminal corridor through sunrise Friday.

For DTW . MVFR ceiling during the morning becomes VFR below 5000 ft this afternoon as a cold front moves through the DTW area. Northerly wind trailing the front requires a shift to north traffic operations by late afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less today.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

DISCUSSION .

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for urban type flooding potential across the Metro Detroit region through 10 am as a complex of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall moves Lower Michigan this morning.

At the surface a warm frontal zone is draped from north/central WI southeast through central lower MI and into Ohio. Early night strong convection tracked more NNW to SSE feeding on the the strong instability in southern WI into northern IL. Will be watching for greater development that will drive southeastward ahead of the surface reflection as it moves into western MI. The low level jet of 30-35 kts will also be moving over southern Lake MI in west/southwest Michigan helping support stronger convection. Late night trends leaning towards this event ending up as more of a heavy rainfall threat than a damaging wind threat, as the greater threat will stay to the west and southwest of southeast Michigan. However, there will still be potential for some isolated to scattered damaging winds through the early morning with the warm front still hanging around. A Marginal/Slight Risk still in place through 12Z across most of the CWA seems appropriate still.

Timing of the strongest convection into southeast Michigan still expected within the 08-012Z time frame in conjunction with the arrival and progression of the low level jet this morning. High moisture content will accompany this system. Upstream 00Z RAOBs last evening picked up PWATs around 1.50 to 1.75 inches. Latest RAP forecast still has PWATs at 1.75 to just over 2.00 inches over southeast Michigan by 12Z. The high degree of moisture should bring potential for high rainfall rates during the aforementioned time frame as well as any development associated with a surface low as it drifts into central MI later in the morning.

This morning still carries some degree of uncertainty with regards to intensity and/or coverage of both the lead convection as well as any trailing convection. At press time, heaviest rainfall is moving southwest of the CWA with elevated convection rippling off the front across central MI and into the Saginaw Valley. There will be a bookend vortex forecast to move into central Michigan and result in slower moving and training convection producing heavy rainfall. This feature will be what likely brings the potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall across Lower Michigan through the morning hours. There is a scenario where heaviest rainfall just grazes the southwest portions of the CWA.

By the afternoon the main complex will push south of the state. Lower level cold air advection behind the system with surface height rises moving in from the northwest will result in temperatures cooling off and clearing skies. Pleasant weather expected for Friday with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and much less humid conditions as dewpoints fall into the 50s. Mostly stable conditions hold through Saturday morning until broad cyclonic flow aloft ushers in the next shortwave diving out of Ontario directly and over the central Great Lakes. This will be the next chances for rainfall. Timing appears to be late Saturday into Sunday.

After a slightly warmup on Saturday towards the upper 70s before a reinforcing shot of cooler air settles back into the region by late Sunday. This will be the result of broad troughing over taking the eastern half of the CONUS the early to mid next week. Forecast high temperatures to start next week back fall back into the low 70s. Overall rain chances should be limited given the deeper moisture will be pushed back towards the Gulf Coast states. Any rainfall chances will be governed by the evolution of shortwaves within the cyclonic flow and the eventual breakdown of the trough into late next week.

MARINE .

A thunderstorm complex and associated low pressure move through the central Great Lakes this morning with heavy rainfall and scattered strong to severe wind gusts in excess of 50 kt possible, especially across southern Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair, and western Lake Erie. The cold front follows by midday with the bulk of the showers/storms moving out and cooler northwest wind ensuing through the day. A secondary backdoor cold front drops southward across Lake Huron late tonight with winds veering to northeast and increasing to 20-25 kt Friday morning. This will lead to a growing wave field over southern Lake Huron with Small Craft Advisories likely becoming needed around the Thumb late overnight through Friday morning. High pressure then builds in from the west late Friday with lighter northerly flow backing to the northwest.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

UPDATE . IRL AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . AA MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi43 min W 11 G 17 77°F 1010.2 hPa (-0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi43 min W 9.7 G 14 76°F 73°F1 ft1008.9 hPa (-0.1)
AGCM4 26 mi55 min 76°F 73°F1009.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi43 min WSW 20 G 21 77°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi55 min 72°F 1008.4 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi50 minW 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast80°F70°F71%1009.5 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi47 minWSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F75°F100%1009.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi48 minW 10 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F70°F79%1010.8 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi48 minW 7 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F74°F89%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE43NE4E7E7SE6E6SE7SE7S9SE5S7SE7S4CalmS4SE5SW9SW6SW8SW12W8W10
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1 day agoW9NW7NW7
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NW6NW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3N5NE4NE5
2 days agoNW6NW7W10NW7
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NW8N8NW7NW4W3CalmSW3SW5W5W5W3W4W4W5W5W5W6
G15
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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