Gurnee, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gurnee, IL

June 18, 2024 3:22 AM CDT (08:22 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:12 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM
Moonrise 5:32 PM   Moonset 2:31 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 931 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 kt becoming south by midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Tuesday - South winds 15 to 25 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 25 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ700
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 180806 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 306 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and muggy conditions will prevail through the end of the week, although a potential for cooler conditions near the lake exist Thursday and Friday.

- Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue, though many hours will remain dry.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Through Wednesday Night:

A slug of deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is on our doorstep early this morning, and upstream RAOBs sampled PWATs just around two inches in the core of this plume. Mid-level temperatures are warmer within this moist axis, and lapse rates will correspondingly diminish, limiting the amount of instability available to elevated parcels this morning which should limit the lightning threat. Have boosted precipitation chances a bit through mid morning across the eastern half of the forecast area as a series of embedded vort maxes meander northward across the region, although any showers generally look to remain pretty light.

The core of this moist axis will begin to shift east of the region through midday and will take the greatest precipitation chances and the bulk of mid and high-level broken to overcast cloud cover with it. Suspect that we'll quickly build lower cumulus/stratocu through the morning as deepening mixing taps into the increased moisture off the surface, but don't see much of a reason why this won't eventually lift and scatter out through the afternoon. Latest thinking is we'll end up with generally partly cloudy conditions this afternoon (maybe a bit more in the way of high cloud cover in our south) which should still allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s-- especially considering the very warm start we'll have this morning. Thicknesses are actually a bit higher than they were on Monday, with the increased cloud cover and increased moisture content the main limiting factors behind warmer conditions. More blunted mixing today should mean that dewpoints don't mix out/fall as readily as they did on Monday. All of this results in a bit lower air temperatures and high dewpoints, yielding peak afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Winds will gust at times up to 35 mph this afternoon with a bit better flow available off the deck.

Expect that we'll be in a bit of a subsident regime this afternoon as the aforementioned vort/shortwave peels off to our east. We'll be uncapped again though during the afternoon, so any subtle boundaries could serve as a focus for isolated storms, but coverage is expected to be quite low.

The synoptic cold front across Minnesota and Iowa is expected to become very active this afternoon with renewed thunderstorm development. This boundary will then inch eastward overnight, and it's probable that convective outflow augments the east/southeast movement of the front, with a composite boundary sagging very close to (or in) our NW and stateline locales Wednesday morning with at least a low threat for a few showers and storms entering the CWA It's pretty difficult to pinpoint how this will play out at this range, but it seems like the front/outflow boundary will end up close enough to the CWA to support some higher midday and afternoon shower and storm coverage during the afternoon, with the greatest chances north and west of about I-55. It doesn't look like there's going to be any well-defined large scale forcing mechanism aloft though, with general height rises and the best upper jet forcing/divergence displaced across Iowa, so have capped things to scattered/chance PoPs for now. Pulse convection with a downburst wind threat would be favored with paltry mid and upper level flow/deep layer shear.

With such weak cloud-bearing flow, individual cell motions (if storms develop in the area) would be quite slow and generally northeastward, paralleling the cold front/remnant outflow boundary yielding a localized heavy rain threat. Not sure if coverage will be high enough to make this more of an issue though, but something we'll keep an eye on.

Lastly, if we aren't gunked up by convective debris cloud cover on Wednesday, temperatures should be near or perhaps a degree or two warmer than today but with generally lower dewpoints with deeper mixing again. The main exception would be in the vicinity of the front/outflow if storms fire by late- morning/midday which would result in lower high temperatures than currently advertised. Overall, heat indices once again look to top out in the mid to upper 90s with some late-day relief possible across lake-adjacent locales in NE Illinois from a lake breeze.

Carlaw

Thursday through Monday:

The primary story through the end of the week continues to be the hot and humid conditions brought by the ridge over the eastern CONUS and the periodic shower and thunderstorm chances brought by the stalled front to the northwest. Although high temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 90s through Saturday, dew points should be able to mix out each day enough to limit heat indices to the upper 90s. This keeps us below Heat Advisory criteria, however, we will continue to message heat safety through the end of this first extended period of heat this year.

On Thursday, a backdoor cold front will move down Lake Michigan and sweep across the area. Model guidance is showing a consistent signal for the front being at the doorstep of Chicago by 12Z Thursday morning (if not earlier) before advancing southwest. This timing will limit high temperatures near the lakeshore to around 80 degrees. Although highs will likely be in the 90s across much of the area, temperatures may actually fall through the afternoon hours as the front moves overhead. If the timing of this front continues to move up, then some areas further inland could also see their high temperatures limited on Thursday. The stalled cold front over Wisconsin may also sag slightly southeastward Thursday as the ridge begins to flatten out. This will bring a chance (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms into the northwestern CWA Thursday afternoon.

Friday looks to be a pretty quiet day, although onshore flow associated with the remnants of the backdoor cold front and a lake breeze will likely limit high temperatures along the lakeshore while the majority of the area sees highs in the low- to-mid 90s once again. Isolated showers and thunderstorms also can't be ruled out Friday afternoon, mainly in the northern portion of the CWA

The next widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday as a shortwave moves across the Northern Plains and an associated surface cold front pushes through the area. This cold front will bring an end to this extended period of heat and humidity. Following this frontal passage, zonal flow looks poised to return with dry conditions early next week.

Carothers

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Satellite imagery shows a MCV moving north through Illinois toward the area. This system has MVFR ceilings and light showers associated with it. It will be arriving in northern Illinois/Indiana around daybreak this morning. Widespread MVFR ceilings look more likely in the vicinity of KRFD with periodic MVFR ceilings likely at KORD, KMDW, KDPA, and KGYY. Light showers should stay in northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana as the system tracks to the NE. Questions still remain about the exact timing and longevity of these showers as the reach KORD, KMDW, KDPA, and KGYY around 12Z, so have opted for a TEMPO group rather than a prevailing at this point. Ceilings will rise this afternoon as the MCV lifts out of the area and low-level moisture mixes out.

Winds will remain gusty out of the SSW overnight tonight. This will continue today as winds increase to around 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts due to a tight pressure gradient. Similar to yesterday, there is a slight chance (15-20%) for isolated storms this afternoon. The pressure gradient will finally weaken tomorrow night around 06Z allowing winds to back down and gusts to fall off.

Carothers

CLIMATE
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

With a high temperature of 97 degrees recorded at O'Hare Airport yesterday, Chicago broke its daily high temperature record of 96 degrees for June 17th, which was previously set in 1887 and 1957. A few additional temperature records (primarily some of the record warmest low temperatures for both Chicago and Rockford) may be threatened over the next few days.

Here are the daily high and warmest low temperature records for Chicago and Rockford for each day through Saturday, June 22nd:

Chicago --------------------------------------- Day: 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 --------------------------------------- Record High: 98 102 104 101 97 Record Warm Low: 77 78 78 74 76

Rockford --------------------------------------- Day: 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 --------------------------------------- Record High: 99 99 101 100 97 Record Warm Low: 74 76 73 71 73

Ogorek

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for the IL and IN nearshore waters.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45186 8 mi33 minESE 7.8G12 70°F 62°F1 ft
45187 11 mi43 minS 9.7G12 62°F 51°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi23 minS 8G12 81°F 29.89
45174 23 mi43 minSSE 12G19 76°F 65°F1 ft29.8869°F
45199 27 mi53 minSSE 12 63°F 60°F2 ft29.94
OKSI2 36 mi83 minE 1.9G5.1 82°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi33 minS 23G24 83°F 75°F
45198 39 mi23 minSSE 12G16 75°F 67°F1 ft29.95
CNII2 40 mi23 minS 14G14 80°F 66°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 43 mi33 minSSW 12G16 81°F


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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