Gurnee, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gurnee, IL

June 13, 2024 5:49 AM CDT (10:49 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:12 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM
Moonrise 12:15 PM   Moonset 12:56 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 350 Am Cdt Thu Jun 13 2024

Today - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt late in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest in the evening and then northwest overnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Friday - North winds 10 to 20 kt. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Friday night - North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast and diminishing to around 10 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ700
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 130820 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Level 2 to 3 out 5 Risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Hazards include destructive hail (2"+) and wind (75mph+)
and localized flash flooding.

- Hot and humid conditions expected next week.

- Periodic low chances for thunderstorms next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Through Tonight:

Strong warm and moist advection continues early this morning across the area which has held temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the lower 60s. After daybreak expect dewpoints to further increase into the upper 60s and perhaps even near 70.
This will make for a warm and muggy day with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and heat indices in the low-mid 90s.

We continue to monitor a couple areas of upstream convection at this hour, one small cluster moving east southeast across east central Iowa and another broader axis of convection extending from southeast Minnesota eastward across central Wisconsin. The former may bring a few showers (maybe a rogue lightning strike)
into areas generally southwest of a Dixon to Paxton, IL line around daybreak. The latter may just clip areas near the WI/IL stateline near to shortly after daybreak as well. Most areas will remain dry but a general increase in cloud cover is likely for the first part of the morning.

Given an overall lower shower/storm coverage, while acknowledging a brief period of increased cloud cover may delay destabilization initially this morning, earlier concerns of morning showers shunting the effective front well south of the Chicago metro are becoming a less likely outcome with each passing hour. Accordingly, confidence is increasing in scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorm development this afternoon along a cold front, potentially as early as 1-2 PM CDT across southeast Wisconsin and along the WI/IL stateline. These storms would then likely increase in coverage with southward extent as they move across the area into the evening. As expected, there remain subtle timing, coverage, and placement differences among the various suite of available model guidance but there is enough consistency to boost shower/storm chances into the "likely to definite" range (60-80%), highest south of I-80.

Instability upwards of 2000-3000+ J/kg combined with deep layer shear of 35-45+ kts will support supercell structures with initial storm development this afternoon. Main hazards include significant hail (2"+) and wind gusts (75mph+). With the arrival of a subtle mid-level wave, further weakening of any remaining convective inhibition should occur toward late afternoon/early evening, suggesting storm mode transitions to congealing multi- cell clusters and bowing segments as storm coverage increases, particularly south of I-80.

The SPC Day 1 Outlook for severe weather remains mostly unchanged with a level 2 of 5 risk for much of northern and northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana and a level 3 of 5 risk confined to areas southwest of the Chicago metro where the greatest instability is expected. A northeastward expansion of this area into the metro certainly cannot be ruled out with later updates. Any storms that develop across the entire area will be capable of destructive hail (2"+) and wind gusts (75+ mph).

A tornado cannot be fully ruled out today given an initial supercellular mode in the afternoon, and then later into the evening after storms grow upscale, but weak low-level shear and high LCLs support no more than a 2% tornado risk.

Lastly, high PWATs and the potential for a period of training storms this evening, supports a continued mention of a localized flash flooding risk.

Petr

Friday through Wednesday:

Primary forecast concerns for the extended remain heat/humidity and thunderstorm chances.

High pressure will be moving across the upper Great Lakes region Friday and this will send a weak cold front down Lake Michigan, arriving in the mid/late afternoon. While winds will already be northeast near the lake, along with cooler temps, this front will usher in cooler air across the entire cwa through Friday evening. After highs in the lower/mid 80s for most locations Friday, temps will be falling into the 60s by sunset along with lower humidity levels. Low temps by Saturday morning will be in the 50s for most areas.

High temps will be back in the 80s for most areas on Saturday with dewpoints still only in the 50s. East/southeast winds will keep the IL shore of Lake Michigan cooler.

As has been advertised for several days, the upper ridge will begin to build north across the region on Sunday. To some degree, the models and their ensembles have had a chance of thunderstorms from early Sunday morning through early Monday morning, as the ridge has not yet fully spread north of the cwa.
And while confidence remains low, this time period, Sunday-ish, seems to be a time period to monitor for the potential for some storms, with uncertainty for timing/location. Highs on Sunday could easily be in the mid 90s for most of the area absent of any significant cloud cover/precipitation.

After Sunday, confidence is very low for thunderstorm chances.
The ECMWF and its ensembles are hot and dry for several days next week with the upper ridge firmly in place while the GFS continues to show frequent precip chances, which would also impact high temps, pushing them lower then currently advertised. Blended pops have some form of low chance pops from Saturday night onward and while any one of these periods may have some precip, much of the extended is likely to be dry with little skill trying to time any impulse.

Uncertainty increases further by Wednesday/Thursday when a cold front may approach from the northwest bringing what will likely be the next best chance of precipitation (after Sunday) and if the front does move through the area, a break from the hot and humid conditions.

As for heat index values, current highs in the lower/mid 90s and dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to around 70 yield heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100. Again, with no precip influences/effects. Plan to starting mentioning this heat potential in the HWO this morning. cms

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Forecast concerns include...

Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon.
Gusty southwest winds later this morning/early afternoon.
Possible east winds after storms.

Various areas of thunderstorms nearby this morning. Storms over southeast Lake Michigan will move away from the terminals while storms over eastern IA will move southeast into west central IL and remain southwest of the terminals. But the area of storms across eastern MN into central WI will continue moving southeast and is expected to slowly weaken and dissipate. However, if this area of convection does not dissipate fully, showers may reach into far northern IL and RFD by daybreak this morning.

The focus will then shift to new thunderstorm development which is expected to develop just north or potentially right over the terminals this afternoon. There is still some uncertainty for timing and location and there is a small chance thunderstorms will develop south of the terminals. However, the consensus among the latest guidance is that thunderstorms will develop over northern IL ahead of an approaching cold front and then push to the southeast this evening with some isolated thunder potential remaining through sunset. Opted to trim tempo mention to just 2 hours, which may still need some refinement as trends emerge and then include vicinity mention for a longer time period. Any of the thunderstorms that form today may become severe with locally strong/erratic winds/gusts. Ifr/lifr cigs and vis will be possible along with very heavy rain.

Southwest winds will slowly increase early this morning with some gusts possible by daybreak. Then gusts into the 20kt range are expected through early afternoon. Winds will turn westerly ahead of the front and then possibly northerly though will be impacted by thunderstorms. Models are now showing an easterly wind for a few hours behind the storms, that settles into a light northerly wind for the rest of tonight. cms

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45186 8 mi29 minENE 3.9G5.8 65°F 61°F0 ft
45187 11 mi29 minSSE 3.9G5.8 64°F 60°F0 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi49 minSSW 4.1G7 74°F 29.80
45174 23 mi39 minSSE 5.8G7.8 69°F 62°F1 ft29.7863°F
45199 27 mi79 minS 9.7 62°F 59°F1 ft29.82
OKSI2 36 mi109 minW 1G6 77°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi29 minSSW 18G20 80°F 69°F
45198 39 mi29 minS 5.8G7.8 69°F 63°F0 ft29.85
CNII2 40 mi19 minSSW 7G8 74°F 60°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 43 mi39 minWNW 5.1G8 74°F


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL 5 sm58 minSW 0810 smClear70°F61°F73%29.80
KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI 15 sm56 minSW 0710 smClear73°F61°F65%29.80
KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL 19 sm57 minSSW 0710 smClear73°F63°F69%29.84


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Chicago, IL,




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