Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:32PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 4:19 AM CDT (09:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:40PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 317 Am Cdt Tue Jul 7 2020
Today..Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 5 kt becoming east around 10 kt in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:202007071530;;453016 FZUS53 KLOT 070817 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 317 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-071530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 070836 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 336 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SHORT TERM. 313 AM CDT

Through Tonight .

The continuation of the impressive stretch of above normal temperatures during mid-summer -- adding onto a dozen days so far -- and the likelihood of afternoon scattered thunderstorms are today's forecast messages. Heat index readings are forecast to peak in the 95 to 99 range today with medium-high confidence. As for thunderstorms, there will be a propensity to produce locally heavy rain under any deeper cores along with some gusty downdrafts (30+ mph). Confidence in at least a few thunderstorms in the forecast area is high.

After being located more solidly under the upper and mid-level ridging the past several days, this morning finds us more to the northeast of the maximum heights. Usually that means some vulnerability to short wave impulses and more readily eroding of any capping. While not significant by any means on either aspect today, each are contributors to the scattered convective chances. Satellite water vapor imagery and VAD profilers early this morning indicate a sheared short wave from central Wisconsin into central Iowa, which is expected to drift over the forecast area during peak heating. Behind that is an ongoing MCS across southeast South Dakota and a convectively-enhanced vorticity center to its north, and the RAP solution brings that remnant MCV toward the IL/WI border area by late day. In addition to these two features for some marginal upper support and foci, the surface convergence of a lake breeze will again be present in the lake adjacent region of northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. Convergence along this is likely to be greater today thanks to boundary layer west-southwest flow around 10 kt as seen on last evening's 00Z DVN sounding. Also there may be a subtle outflow left over near the WI/IL state line from last night's convection in central Wisconsin.

Moisture has ever so gradually been increasing the past 24 hours, and surface dew points early this morning are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some mixing will almost surely happen again today given commonalities to recent days that have observed lowering afternoon dew points, as well as model solutions of today's boundary layer. There still should be enough with the heating to result in the cap being breached and any of the aforementioned areas of focus to result in more towering cumulus, and given less mid-level dry air, likely a scattering of convective cells. Away from the impetus mechanisms, there will probably be limited (<15 percent) coverage, but pinpointing that area or areas are somewhat tough today. So have areawide 20-40 percent PoPs in the forecast with the highest being generally along the lake breeze and where the waves are expected to be during peak heating into the early evening. With a higher source elevation of downdraft (cloud bases) as well as steep low-level lapse rates, a few gusty downdrafts in the region are probable, with outflows potentially sparking additional convective cells. As is typical in such a pattern, a quick one inch of rain under any of these cells is in play this afternoon and early evening.

For temperatures today, the top of the mixed boundary layer is about 1C warmer (19-20C) than yesterday, but more cumulus may stunt the ability to warm above yesterday in many locations. Have gone with the persistence forecast of 90-94 for inland locations, with mid 80s lakeside as the lake breeze moves in by early afternoon. With some mixing of dew points into the mid 60s likely, peak heat index readings continue to fall in the 95-99 range. Again below Heat Advisory criteria (105) by several degrees, but will continue to note basic heat safety in messaging.

Any convection persisting into early to mid evening is most favored north of I-80. The second mid-level weak impulse is likely still to be drifting over the area through the rest of the evening and overnight. Cannot rule out a few spotty showers or a couple storms in that time, but coverage after 10-11 p.m. should be less than 10 percent.

MTF

LONG TERM. 330 AM CDT

Wednesday through Monday .

Wednesday and Thursday may present a slightly different character to the persistent heat we have had, as both days could experience less mixing of dew points, resulting in heat index readings possibly topping 100 degrees for a few hours. It also means a non-zero chance to reach Heat Advisory level (heat index = 105+), but still that's on the lower end of the solution spectrum. Thunderstorm chances peak within the later Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon period. It is not the type of pattern where we expect storms through that entire period nor an ideal timing for an elevated severe threat, however a couple rounds of storms are possible in that time. The weekend continues to favor slightly cooler and also drier in terms of dew points, and as for precipitation the more drier solution is favored. That's not because we want a dry weekend (ha!), but due to the EC model solution being more consistent than the GFS for this weekend and with its 00Z solution is in fact completely dry.

For Wednesday, guidance continues consistent in building heights back into the area. This should stunt much for convective coverage and also enable surface temperatures to achieve 1-2 degrees warmer than today. The footprint of 90s is probably going to be the highest we have seen so far in this warm stretch. Confidence is not all that high on how far afternoon dew points will mix out. If less mixing than forecast and dew points hang around 70, heat indices will solidly enter the 100-105 range.

For Thursday-Friday, the influence of an upper low passing eastward across the Canadian prairie provinces will be felt this far south, with a southern extension of height falls and forcing via short wave(s) expected. However, this and any cloud influence are looking more likely not to arrive until later Thursday, thus allowing for another hot and humid day. The story will be similar to Wednesday, though for now have not gone as warm as Wednesday because of the potential of increasing afternoon clouds. The primary timing of focus continues to be Thursday night into Friday morning. The 00Z EC is later than this, more so Friday, with a slower short wave. Details will naturally have to be worked out in time. Any severe threat may be dependent on if an MCS, likely not a strong one though, can develop to our west and enter north central Illinois Thursday night. Also a slower solution like the EC could result in a few strong storms in the eastern CWA Friday.

Again have gone with more of an EC solution for the weekend, which lowers the blend-provided PoPs some. Either way, the temperatures and dew points look to be slightly less than they have been given low-level northwesterly flow. A second and more of a true cold front is possible Saturday night-Sunday. This may turn northerly winds with enough speed to present some rip current risk for Lake Michigan beaches on Sunday.

Beyond this current forecast, we are keeping an eye on the potential for heat to return and potentially more substantially during the mid to latter part of next week. The 00Z guidance signal was a tad more muted with this than yesterday's 12Z.

MTF

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs . 1248 AM CDT

Concerns include: * Widely scattered TSRA this afternoon-early evening and impacts on winds * Lake breeze timing, with winds likely affected by TSRA if they occur near the terminals

Signs continue to point toward today likely having higher coverage of convection than in recent days. SHRA/TSRA could develop during the early afternoon near the lake breeze and probably later in the afternoon farther inland. Maintained previous PROB30 (shortened slightly), but also added another later in the afternoon, as latest guidance suggests SHRA/TSRA could be ongoing near the slowly advancing lake breeze toward early evening. Variable and gusty winds are a decent bet if storms occur close by even if TS doesn't directly impact terminal area. If a more robust storm moves over a terminal, wind gusts over 30 kt will be possible. Lake breeze timing will also be affected by timing and development of SHRA and TSRA, with 21-22z a reasonable guess.

Castro

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 11 mi39 min SSW 1.9 G 5.8 76°F 74°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi79 min W 5.1 G 6 80°F 1013.9 hPa (-1.0)
45174 23 mi29 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 78°F 77°F1013.4 hPa71°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi29 min WSW 6 G 7 84°F 72°F
CNII2 40 mi34 min W 2.9 G 6 81°F 64°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 43 mi39 min SSW 1 G 1.9 74°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair73°F64°F76%1012.5 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair72°F64°F79%1013.7 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair74°F68°F82%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW3SE8SE9SE7SE9SE8SE8SE8SE6SE5S3SW3CalmSW3CalmCalmW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE6SE7SE8SE9SE8SE7SE7SE4SE3S3SW3Calm3CalmN3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmN53NE6NE8E8E5E6NE9NE8NE7NE8NE8NE5NE3NE4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.