Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:00PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 7:12 PM CDT (00:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:12AMMoonset 3:18PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 329 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 22 2019
.gale warning in effect until 9 pm cdt this evening...
Tonight..Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming west and diminishing to 30 kt in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. A chance of sprinkles in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 kt. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less in the afternoon.
LMZ740 Expires:201910230315;;115104 FZUS53 KLOT 222029 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-230315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 222328
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
628 pm cdt Tue oct 22 2019

Short term
300 pm cdt
through Wednesday night...

have allowed the wind advisory to expire as planned at 3pm cdt.

Occasional gusts of 40 to 45 mph out of the west-southwest will
remain possible through about sunset, however for most locations
that were in the advisory, gusts will be below 40 mph most of the
time. Windy and chilly conditions will be the rule through the
evening. Skies will clear out tonight as southwesterly winds ease,
which will support lows in the mid to upper 30s outside of chicago
and around 40 low 40s in the city.

There are no significant concerns on Wednesday. The main item of
note is the threat for occasional light showers or sprinkles as a
moisture starved clipper type system moves across the region.

After a sunny and cool start to the day, cloud cover will rapidly
increase from west to east by mid to late morning as warm
advection ramps up. Atmospheric column will be quite dry to begin
with while isentropic ascent ramps up. It does appear saturation
will get low enough to support some rain drops reaching the
surface in spots. Thus while there is variance in the guidance
have indicated chance for sprinkles and slight light shower
chances (primarily far north for the slights) from the mid-late am
through the evening. It's possible that a narrow band of light
rain could set up over far northern illinois during the afternoon
as depicted on some of the models, but it appears better chance of
this will be north of the state line. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal mid to upper 50s north of i-80 and near to
slightly above normal upper 50s to low (locally mid) 60s south.

The weak surface low from the clipper system will exit east of the
area Wednesday night, with light northwesterly winds in its wake.

Skies remaining partly to mostly cloudy will keep the overnight
temperature drop in check, with coolest low temperature readings
in mid to upper 30s for interior northern illinois and upper 30s
to low mid 40s for the rest of the area.

Castro

Long term
300 pm cdt
Thursday through Tuesday...

a surface ridge of high pressure is expected to be building in
across the region on Thursday, following the passage of a cold
front during the predawn hours early Thursday morning. This
surface ridge is expected to shift overhead late Friday and Friday
night, and could set the stage for a more widespread freeze into
Saturday morning, with lows down into the low 30s. Otherwise,
aside for a low chance for some light rain showers Thursday night
across my southern counties, it appears the area will remain dry
through Saturday morning.

Unfortunately, forecast confidence begins to fall off rather
quickly by the weekend. This is largely due to the fact that the
eastern pacific oscillation (epo) is expected to spike into its
negative phase in response to a rapidly building upper ridge over
the northeastern pacific and ak. The net result of this will be
a digging of another significant upper trough across the much of
the central and parts of the western CONUS through the weekend.

This type of larger scale pattern typically supports at least some
periods of active weather across the central conus. For this
reason we continue to monitor the possibilities for more rain
this weekend into next week.

At the present time, it appears that an upper level disturbance,
setting up near the texas panhandle on Thursday, will be ejected
northeastward across the ozarks on Saturday as the aforementioned
upper trough begins to dig over the northern conus. The timing of
this initial disturbance is not agreed well amongst the 12z
forecast guidance. In fact, the 12z GFS remains very progressive
with this disturbance, and keeps it mainly to our south through
the weekend. In contrast, both the 12z gem and ECMWF suggest that
this disturbance will drive an area of surface low pressure and a
period of rain over the area later Saturday into Saturday night.

Given low confidence in the timing of this system, we have
continued a mention of lower end (30-40%) pops at this time. These
values could need to be bumped up considerably if a solution
similar to the 12z gem and ECMWF occurs.

Later in the period we should trend colder as an upper trough sets
up over the region. In addition to the colder conditions, we could
have another period or two of precipitation towards mid-week.

Kjb

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

628 pm... Forecast concerns include wind directions Wednesday
afternoon evening and a chance of showers midday Wednesday.

Westerly winds have begun to diminish some with sunset and will
gradually diminish through the evening with periodic gusts
possible overnight. Winds will turn more south southwest after
sunrise with some gusts into the upper teen kt range possible.

A weak surface low pressure will move across far northern il
Wednesday afternoon. If this low tracks north of the chicago
terminals... Wind directions should remain south southwest but
there is some uncertainty regarding where this low will track.

If it tracks over or just south of the terminals... A period of
light and variable or easterly winds may develop... Particularly
at ord. Maintained current forecast but changes are possible to
the wind forecast depending on where this low tracks. Winds are
then expected to shift northwesterly Wednesday evening once the
low shifts east and a cold front moves through.

Some of the high res guidance are showing light showers
developing by late morning across far northern il... Ending by
early afternoon and while confidence is low opted to include
prob mention for this time period. There may be additional
showers Wednesday evening with the cold front. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Gale warning... Nearshore waters until 9 pm Tuesday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 8 mi52 min SW 19 G 27 48°F 51°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi72 min WSW 14 G 33 49°F 1005.1 hPa (+2.4)
45174 23 mi42 min WSW 19 G 27 51°F3 ft1006.3 hPa
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi42 min WSW 21 G 24 51°F 38°F
CNII2 40 mi27 min SSW 11 G 18 50°F 35°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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SW11
G17
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G19
S13
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S12
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S12
G19
S13
G17
S10
G16
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G23
S15
G20
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G21
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G26
SW14
G22
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G24
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G24
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G21
SW12
G25
SW11
G18
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ago
NE7
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G10
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G16
SE9
G12
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G18
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G19
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G28
SE21
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G27
SE16
G23
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G27
S12
G21
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SW7
G15
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G23
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S6
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SW1
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G6
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G8
NW3
N4
N7
G10
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G11
N6
G9
N5
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N3
G7
NE3
G6
NE3
NE3
G6
E4
NE3
G7
NE6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi17 minWSW 14 G 2310.00 miOvercast48°F35°F61%1005.5 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi19 minWSW 16 G 2910.00 miOvercast48°F37°F66%1005.1 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi20 minSW 9 G 1710.00 miOvercast50°F35°F57%1007.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW26
G40
SW22
G31
SW19
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SW16
G28
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G23
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G27
SW19
G33
SW20
G29
SW21
G34
SW18
G37
SW24
G36
SW23
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SW19
G31
SW19
G30
SW17
G30
SW17
G29
SW16
G33
SW13
G24
SW16
G31
SW13
G23
SW17
G33
SW17
G33
SW14
G23
1 day agoE6SE5E6SE5E5NE4CalmNE7NE4E8E7SE8
G17
SE11
G21
SE11
G24
SE16
G25
SE18
G29
SE18
G31
SE14
G27
S10S16
G28
S20
G31
SW24
G35
SW18
G25
SW18
G31
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmNW5NW5NW3NW5NW5NW5NW4CalmE4E5E7SE5E5SE5E6E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.