Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:57PM Saturday January 25, 2020 8:40 PM CST (02:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:56AMMoonset 6:45PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 248 Pm Cst Sat Jan 25 2020
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of drizzle or snow through the night. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 kt. Cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:202001260415;;508700 FZUS53 KLOT 252048 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 248 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-260415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 260226 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 826 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

UPDATE. 826 PM CST

Lingering light snow from today's departing system has just about ended early this evening, with a few diminishing returns on radar over the southern CWA. Meanwhile, an area of light precip has developed over southern WI in response to weak isentropic ascent around the 280K surface, roughly in the 900-850 hPa layer. This forcing is acting on cloud depths of at least 3kft to produce the precip. However, cloud bases around 1kft have been high enough to limit the amount of precip reaching the ground. There have been sporadic obs of light snow or light drizzle with this precip in southern WI. This mixed precip type is not surprising given recent AMDAR soundings out of MKE showing temps as low as -8 to -9C at the top of the cloud layer. Little should change in the overall pattern of the forcing and precip as it shifts SSE into the CWA this evening. Though, the focus for better chances of precip will be across the northeast half of the CWA. With temps expected to remain hovering around freezing, some freezing drizzle is possible. This would potentially create some slippery spots on untreated surfaces. Precip should exit to the southeast by 3-4am as the forcing shifts out of the area.

Given the very light and patchy nature of the precip combined with most areas having already received frozen precip of some sort over the past 24 hours, there are no plans for a Winter Weather Advisory or SPS for this activity at this time.

Kluber

SHORT TERM. 130 PM CST

Through Sunday night .

The center of the deep upper low has shifted to the vicinity of Lake Huron early this afternoon. There is still an elongated band of snow out of ahead one well demarcated deformation zone on the eastern flanks of the low. There is fairly sharp edge to the slightly deeper moisture with this band of snow. Surface temperatures are largely at freezing or higher and therefore the impacts from this band have largely been limited to some visibility reductions. Behind this band the moisture is subtly more shallow, but likely enough to result in some loss of ice nucleation aloft, thus we do still anticipate a transition to drizzle this evening. With temperatures expected to remain above freezing this should largely not be a problem, but locations that drop just a degree or two could see some light icing.

There is another sheared out wave on the far northern extent of the upper low across the upper Great Lakes, and some weak radar returns upstream of this can be seen across northern/central WI. Therefore the drizzle/freezing drizzle concern this evening. With coverage patchy and with marginal surface temperatures tonight, we will likely let the winter weather advisory to expire a bit early given the minimal impacts from the snow today (just a few tenths of accums) and signs of improved road conditions. But if any targeted areas (such as north central Illinois where slightly lower dewpoints may be) dip a bit colder or drizzle coverage is greater, we could envision a short fused special statement could handle this potential hazard this evening. This will bear monitoring and remains the near term forecast concern.

As the low pulls away tonight the light precip chances will end , but low level flow will remain cyclonic should allow skies to remain mostly cloudy on Sunday. Expect temperatures to remain fairly consistent only reaching the low to mid 30s. There is a subtle wave that will pass through or to our west Sunday night. Most guidance is dry with this across our area.

KMD

LONG TERM. 221 PM CST

Monday through Saturday .

A quiet and relatively mild stretch of weather appears to be in store for the coming week, at least in terms of avoiding wide temperature swings. Discounting the GFS which is a cold outlier, daytime highs should start in the mid 30s on Monday then very gradually increase to the upper 30s north and lower 40s south by the weekend. Residual snow cover could keep some locations a bit cooler, though even the cold outlier GFS generally has highs a degree or two above normal through the period. Lows too will be a few degrees above seasonal norms, in the mid-upper 20s. So while it will not exactly be considered a warm stretch, the last week of January a year ago saw daytime highs below -10 and overnight lows colder than 20 to 30 below zero.

Regarding rain and snow chances, a decent shortwave passing through Monday appears to be too moisture starved to support precipitation. A deeper wave toward midweek may support a better chance, but even this is seeing trends heading downward from what they first appeared. Models give it a third try toward next weekend with milder southerly flow and better moisture, but considerable disagreement in the deterministic runs warrants only a chance mention at this range. Ensembles generally support this idea with an open longwave dropping into the Great Lakes by next weekend.

Lenning

AVIATION. For the 00Z TAFs .

The primary aviation weather concerns this period are: -Timing out the back edge of lingering -SN -Potential for -DZSN or -FZDZ developing later this evening and possibly into the overnight -Prevailing IFR cigs transitioning to low-MVFR through Sunday

The back edge of the main area of light snow continues to shift southeastward early this evening and should exit the region over the next few hours. The main concern is the potential for an additional area of light precipitation to develop later this evening and possibly into the overnight hours as another axis of subtle lift in the low-levels begins to develop. Forecast soundings (and recent PIREPs) indicate that we are losing cloud ice as the mid-levels are drying out. As a result, there is some concern for the development of -DZ (as opposed to -SNDZ) later this evening. Temperatures aren't all that cool upstream indicating a lack of cold advection, so temperatures won't be plunging tonight but instead likely to hold steady or creep slowly downwards a degree or two from where they are currently. Confidence in the development of -FZDZ was not quite high enough (given the marginal temperatures at or just above freezing) and questions about the subtle nature of ascent tonight to warrant an explicit mention in the TAFs, but this is something we will be monitoring closely. Main window looks to be somewhere in the 03-10z window.

MVFR cigs look to prevail through the day on Sunday, if not well into Sunday evening.

Carlaw

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi41 min W 7 G 11 35°F 1011.2 hPa (+1.0)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi51 min W 14 G 16 34°F 34°F
CNII2 40 mi41 min W 7 G 8 34°F 31°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi46 minW 49.00 miOvercast34°F30°F85%1011.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi48 minW 710.00 miOvercast36°F30°F82%1011.5 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi49 minW 510.00 miOvercast35°F30°F85%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW3W43Calm3W333W44W4W5W4W5W3W6W5W4W4
1 day agoE4CalmE6E7E5NE7NE7NE8E8E6E5E7E6E5E4E5E4E5E4CalmNE4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS12S9S11S9S10S10S6S4S6S5S6S7S5S6S6S3SE8SE6SE5SE5SE4SE6SE6SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.