Monday, June14, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hatfield, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:30PM Monday June 14, 2021 11:16 PM EDT (03:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:45AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 902 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated tstms early this evening. Showers likely. Chance of tstms after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 902 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal system will slowly move across through Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will then gradually build from the north and west for mid week, and move offshore on Friday. A cold front will move through Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hatfield, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 150255 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1055 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SYNOPSIS. Rounds of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue at times tonight into Tuesday. Dry weather with very pleasant temperatures returns Wednesday through Friday. It turns warmer and more humid ahead of a cold front on Saturday with the potential for a round of scattered showers & thunderstorms. Dry and pleasant weather likely returns Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Minor tweaks to the forecast this evening, mainly to try to time out rainfall across the region. Southern new England was entering a little lull, with more showers and a few thunderstorms expected later tonight.

Minor tweaks to temperatures, which should not change much the rest of tonight.

Previous Discussion .

Much of the earlier shower and isolated t-storm activity has dissipated across the region. There still was a small cluster of heavy showers across far southeast Plymouth county. We were also were watching a cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms moving east across eastern New York. The model guidance continues to struggle with the location, timing and strength of this activity.

Overall, we expect little if any surface instability tonight. Therefore, the severe weather threat is quite low overnight. However, modest effective shear of 35 to 45+ knots will continue along with MUCapes of 500+ J/KG. So putting it all together, we will have to watch for activity across eastern NY working into the region over the next few hours. In addition, modest forcing with enough elevated instability may result in scattered showers and a few t-storms re-developing overnight. Again, timing and location of this activity remains uncertain but bands of scattered showers and a few t-storms will be possible at times through daybreak Tuesday. The overall severe weather threat will remain rather low, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the activity given Pwats of 1.50 inches.

As for temperatures, low temps should bottom out around 60 to the lower 60s in most locales. We will also have to watch for some patchy fog.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Short Term:

Highlights

* There is potential for a few strong to severe storms on Tuesday. The main threats with any stronger storms are hail, gusty winds and heavy downpours.

Tuesday .

Southern New England will remain embedded within cyclonic flow through this period. A trough will lift from the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic early on Tuesday into northern New England by late in the day. Another trough digs into the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic late. A broad surface low will lift over or just by to the southeast.

Lots of discrepancy amongst guidance with regards to timing and location for the thunderstorm risk on Tuesday. The risk for any stronger storms will largely be dependent on the evolution of convection across the CWA late tonight into early Tuesday. If we can clear out any precipitation and cloudiness then this would maximize the instability thus bringing a higher risk for stronger storms. If the clouds remain we may still have storms, but it would be more difficult to get stronger storms going. Depends on the deterministic model that one chooses for the amount of instability ranging from a few hundred J/kg of CAPE to AOA 1000 J/kg. Looks like the higher probabilities of SBCAPE is across the Merrimack Valley from the current and previous HREF run being around a 40-70 percent chance and lesser probabilities elsewhere.

Does appear that besides the instability that models have a good consensus on other parameters. Expecting a pretty good cold pool aloft with 500 hPa temperatures between -13 to -20 degrees Celsius. There will be pretty good low level lapse rates in place between 6-8 degrees Celsius per km and mid level lapse rates around 7 degrees Celsius per km. Deep layer shear is on the order of 40-60 kts, so this would be supportive of organized storms depending on the instability available. Given this environment am thinking that hail and gusty winds will be the main risk if stronger storms develop. Do have PWATS on the order of 1.25-1.5 inches with warm cloud layers between 3-3.5 km across central and eastern areas, so there may be some heavy downpours.

Tricky temperature forecast given it will be largely dependent on how quickly cloud cover clears. Given there are 850 hPa temperatures in the 10-12 degree Celsius range have highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Will see any shower/storm activity diminish during the evening as the low lifts into Maine/the Gulf of Maine. Will see clearing skies as the night progresses. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry/pleasant weather returns Wed through Fri * Highs mainly in the m-u 70s Wed/Thu and 80-85 for Fri * Scattered showers & t-storms possible sometime Sat * Dry Weather probably returns for Sun Details:

Wednesday and Thursday .

Guidance is in very good agreement in an upper trough over the northeast states with below normal height fields Wed & Thu. Deeper surface moisture will have already pushed east of our region, which should result in dry weather with very comfortable humidity levels for this time of year. The upper trough will keep temperatures below normal for mid-June, but still expect highs to reach mainly the middle to upper 70s with just some diurnal CU. It will be cool/comfortable at night given low dewpoint air for this time of Warmer year. We should see low temperatures bottom out in the 40s across some out-lying areas Wednesday night.

Friday .

Upper trough begins to push east of the region allowing for rising height fields. High pressure to the south of the region should maintain dry weather, but with mid level warming expect highs to recover to between 80 and 85 in many locations. Humidity levels will remain quite comfortable.

This Weekend .

A shortwave/cold front will approach and cross the region sometime Saturday. This may trigger a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms sometime Sat/Sat evening. It is too early to try to assess severe weather potential given this is 5 days in the future. There does look to be at least modest wind fields/shear, but whether or not we see enough moisture return for adequate instability and favorable timing remains to be seen. We may see some humidity return by Saturday with highs in the 80s, but it will be short-lived. Dry weather with lower humidity does look to return behind this cold front by Sunday with seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight . Moderate Confidence. Varying conditions across southern New England late this evening. Mostly dealing with MVFR, with areas of both VFR and IFR. Thinking conditions will briefly improve between now and about daybreak, before deteriorating once more. Scattered showers & a few thunderstorms will impact the region at times. Light S winds.

Tuesday . Moderate Confidence. Risk for scattered SHRA/TSRA becoming more likely across the area. Mix of MVFR and VFR for most of our region after the morning lower clouds burn off. However, IFR conditions will remain possible towards the south coast, Cape and Islands.

KBOS TAF . Moderate Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF . Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/ . High Confidence.

Southerly winds at 10-15 kts with some gusts to around 20 kts through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas may be a bit choppy at times, but conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Showers and perhaps a few storms are possible tonight with reduced visibility. Will have a risk of thunderstorms on Tuesday with areas of stratus and fog still expected.

Tuesday night . High confidence.

A broad low lifts into Maine/the Gulf of Maine, which will shift winds from a southerly direction to the SW/W and eventually the NW Tuesday night. Speeds will remain between 5-15 kts with potentially a few gusts to 20 kts late. Seas 2-4 ft with showers ending early. Expect the fog/stratus to shift east of the waters as the wind direction shifts.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Thursday through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/KS NEAR TERM . Belk/Frank SHORT TERM . BL/KS LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . Belk/Frank/BL/KS MARINE . Frank/BL/KS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 74 mi46 min Calm 64°F 1008 hPa62°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 75 mi46 min S 1 G 1.9 66°F 64°F1010 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 76 mi46 min 65°F 58°F1009.9 hPa

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA13 mi32 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F64°F100%1009.7 hPa
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi23 minN 010.00 miOvercast63°F63°F100%1009.3 hPa
Orange Municipal Airport, MA21 mi24 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F61°F96%1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCEF

Wind History from CEF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6S3S3S5S5S3S5SE6S5SE3S7S8SE7S6S5S6CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE3Calm
1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S6S8SW5SW10S9SW7SW8SW7S9S7S6S5S6
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE7SE3N3NE5CalmCalmW5CalmN3SW5CalmSW4CalmCalmN3CalmSW3SE4S5

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut
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Hartford
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Mon -- 01:29 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:18 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.71.11.82.22.32.11.91.51.20.90.60.40.20.40.91.41.71.81.71.41.21

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:21 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:00 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:10 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.71.21.82.22.42.321.71.30.90.60.40.20.40.91.51.81.91.81.61.31.10.9

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