Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Northampton, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:32PM Thursday October 1, 2020 3:37 PM EDT (19:37 UTC) Moonrise 6:53PMMoonset 6:18AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1258 Pm Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 1258 Pm Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches from the great lakes then stalls nearby this afternoon with a frontal wave developing tonight. This wave passing near or just east of the waters on Friday. High pressure builds in from the west for Saturday and Sunday, then moves northeast of the waters Sunday night. Low pressure moves into the waters for Monday and Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northampton, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 011854 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 254 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather continues through this evening. Scattered showers are likely Friday for portions of southern New England, with showers most numerous northwest of Boston and Providence. Dry weather returns for this weekend, along with near normal temperatures. Coastal low pressure may bring widespread appreciable rainfall Sunday night and Monday. Dry weather likely returns Tuesday behind departing low. However, an active weather pattern may yield a chance of showers midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Not much change from previous thinking. Mid level trough axis remains to our west through tonight, which will steer a shortwave towards our region late tonight into Friday. Some showers could make it as far east as the Connecticut River valley by daybreak Friday, give or take a few miles.

Clouds will be increasing tonight, especially across the interior. Despite rather light winds, this should prevent significant radiational cooling after midnight. Expecting low temperatures to be slightly above normal for early October.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A mid level shortwave will be more of a factor in our weather Friday, when it will pass us by. At the surface, many of the guidance sources attempt to spin up rather ill-defined low pressures at various points in time during the day. The one which may be most significant is expected to move along the east coast of New England, but not really develop until it reaches the Gulf of Maine Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Even so, this should not be a significant coastal low. It most likely will provide just enough low level convergence to organize some heavier showers, and perhaps some gusty NW winds towards the coast during the afternoon and evening. Once this low pressure passes off to our north, it will also push some colder air across our region.

Unfortunately, this is not looking like a substantial rainfall. Most locations, where it rains at all, will see up to one quarter inch. The highest rainfall totals should be across the interior, which will be closer to the better forcing for lift. Drier weather starts to return Friday afternoon, with all of southern New England rain-free Friday night.

More clouds than sunshine during the peak heating hours will be enough to nudge high temperatures to near to slightly below normal levels Friday and Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 420 AM Update .

Highlights

* Seasonably cool weather this period

* Dry weather this weekend followed by rain likely Sun ngt/Mon with dry weather likely returning Tue, followed by a chance of showers mid week

Precipitation .

Weak short wave moves across the area Sat but column is too dry to yield any showers. Thus expecting dry weather Sat with just some extra diurnal clouds from the short wave. Short wave ridging develops over the area Sunday in response to upstream trough amplification across the Great Lakes. Therefore dry weather continues into Sunday but upstream trough sets the stage for rain chances Sun night into Monday. Euro continues to be the most amplified solution with closed low continuing to deepen as it tracks near or along the southern New England coast. Although the new 00z EC has backed off its previous deep solution. EC ensemble members are not as amplified as the 12z and previous operational runs including the 00z GFS/GEFS which are less amplified. However all model guidance including the UKMET/CMC and GFS are beginning to trend toward higher amplitude. This seems reasonable given the overall amplified long wave pattern with large western CONUS ridge and western Atlc ridge, supporting a high amplitude trough over the Great Lakes. However given the large model spread will continue to derive pops from a model blend. Dry weather should follow Tue behind departing system, however upper air pattern remains progressive but also somewhat amplified. Thus another chance of showers sometime midweek.

Temperatures .

Seasonable airmass overspreads the region this weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 60s, low 60s high terrain, with morning lows in the 40s and even a few mid to upper 30s Sunday morning. Temps Monday still a bit uncertain given different model solutions ranging from a soaking wind swept rain from a closed coastal low, to a more progressive/open wave-coastal low. Given uncertainty we will derive temps from a model blend here. Then seasonable temps Tue behind departing coastal low. WAA ahead of next short wave Wed should yield temps at or above normal.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today: High confidence.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR with winds generally below 5 kt. There is a low risk for a late night rain shower west of the CT River.

Friday: High confidence.

Mainly VFR with periods of MVFR possible during showers. NW winds of 5 to 10 kt for western MA terminals and S winds of 10 kt with gusts 15 to 20 kt possible for southeast MA and Cape terminals.

Friday Night: High confidence.

VFR. Gusty winds diminish during the evening.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Monday/ .

Saturday through Sunday: VFR.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisories continue today for the outer waters due to lingering rough seas. Expecting seas to finally subside below 5 feet overnight. Winds should also generally remain below 20 kt with a rather tranquil stretch of weather. There is a risk of showers on Friday with briefly reduced visibility.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/ .

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ237- 250-254. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ235-255. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ256.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/Nocera NEAR TERM . Belk SHORT TERM . Belk LONG TERM . Nocera AVIATION . Belk/Nocera MARINE . Belk/Nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 63 mi68 min SSW 1 72°F 1010 hPa50°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi50 min SW 11 G 13 69°F 69°F1012.8 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 81 mi50 min SSW 11 G 13 72°F 69°F1011.8 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi45 minW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F42°F34%1011 hPa
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA21 mi42 minSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F41°F31%1011.3 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA24 mi44 minNW 9 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F44°F42%1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAF

Wind History from BAF (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut
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Hartford
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:04 AM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:41 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:19 PM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:06 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.41.92.12.11.91.61.310.60.30.30.71.31.92.22.221.71.41.10.70.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:03 AM EDT     4.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:24 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 05:27 PM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:48 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.52.63.54.34.64.33.42.61.70.6-0.2-0.20.8233.84.44.33.72.92.21.30.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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