Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sergeant Bluff, IA
April 19, 2025 4:15 AM CDT (09:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 1:13 AM Moonset 9:37 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sergeant Bluff, IA
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS63 KFSD 190829 AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Pleasant conditions are expected today, great for outdoor activities.
- Rain returns to the area on Sunday, with the best chances residing east of I-29. A quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain is likely though wobbles in storm track can have meaningful changes on rainfall amounts.
- Temperatures look to be near seasonable to a bit above average for most of next week. Chances for rain continue throughout the week but details are uncertain at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
Today begins on a quiet note as high pressure continues to slowly push into the Northern Plains. This high will meander across the forecast area throughout the day today, resulting in a wonderful Saturday. High temperatures will warm to mid 50s to low 60s while winds remain light. Humidity levels will drop to near critical to critical levels but with such light winds in place, no fire danger is expected today. Today will be a great day for outdoor activities, so get out and enjoy it! Low temperatures will fall to the 30s overnight.
Rain returns to the area on Sunday as a shortwave trough over the southern Plains takes on a negative tilt and ejects northeastwards.
Given its proximity to the Northern Plains, the best dynamics will be east of the forecast area. That said, rain is still likely for locations east of I-29. With the best lift and warm sector east of the area, thunderstorms are not expected. However, as the mid and upper level wave closes off, moisture will be wrapped around to the backside of the system. Latest hi-res guidance has backed off on the start time of the rain though with rain not beginning to fall until late Sunday morning/early afternoon. Rain looks to continue to fall through the rest of Sunday before pushing east of the area come Monday morning. Despite the best dynamics being east of the area, latest medium range guidance shows the dendritic growth zone (DGZ)
saturating along with sufficient omega (upward motion) values up to around 10-15 ubar/s in the DGZ. There also looks to be some potential for banding within the precipitation shield as medium range guidance does show frontogenesis (FGEN) at 600 mb. While forcing and moisture will be in place for rain, there is still disagreement in rainfall amounts. This is due to small changes in the storms track having meaningful changes on rainfall amounts. As of now, the GFS shows the highest rainfall amounts east of I-29 with amounts up to around three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain.
The HRRR on the other hand is the driest model as it shows rainfall amounts less then a tenth of an inch. The ensembles help ease this spread in rainfall amounts as they show a 40-80% chance for rainfall amounts to exceed a quarter of an inch east of I-29. The probabilities decrease for exceeding a half an inch of rain, down to a 30-60% chance. The highest probabilities reside across parts of northwest Iowa. This seems to be a more reasonable rainfall estimate and currently think a quarter of an inch to up to about three quarters of an inch of rain is likely but trends will be monitored.
Northwest Iowa remains the area to see the highest rainfall. Aside from rainfall amounts, high temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s expected. The warmest temperatures will occur west of I-29 where little if any rain is expected.
Dry conditions will briefly return on Monday with high temperatures warming to the 60s and even low 70s. There could be some elevated fire danger across parts of central South Dakota as humidity levels lower to near critical levels along with light to marginally breezy winds. Another shortwave trough will push into the Northern Plains Monday evening and night. This looks to be the next chance for rain as the ensembles show high probabilities (~80-100% chance) for exceeding a hundredth of an inch of rain. The probabilities quickly drop off with amounts of a tenth of an inch or more so this round of rain looks to be quite light. Low temperatures will fall to the 40s overnight.
Chances for rain look to persist throughout the week as a somewhat more active, zonal flow pattern sets up. Tough to say how much rain could fall each day at this time range but details will be ironed out in time. In terms of temperatures, highs look to remain near to above average in the 60s and 70s with lows falling to the 40s overnight.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds remain light through the period.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Pleasant conditions are expected today, great for outdoor activities.
- Rain returns to the area on Sunday, with the best chances residing east of I-29. A quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain is likely though wobbles in storm track can have meaningful changes on rainfall amounts.
- Temperatures look to be near seasonable to a bit above average for most of next week. Chances for rain continue throughout the week but details are uncertain at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
Today begins on a quiet note as high pressure continues to slowly push into the Northern Plains. This high will meander across the forecast area throughout the day today, resulting in a wonderful Saturday. High temperatures will warm to mid 50s to low 60s while winds remain light. Humidity levels will drop to near critical to critical levels but with such light winds in place, no fire danger is expected today. Today will be a great day for outdoor activities, so get out and enjoy it! Low temperatures will fall to the 30s overnight.
Rain returns to the area on Sunday as a shortwave trough over the southern Plains takes on a negative tilt and ejects northeastwards.
Given its proximity to the Northern Plains, the best dynamics will be east of the forecast area. That said, rain is still likely for locations east of I-29. With the best lift and warm sector east of the area, thunderstorms are not expected. However, as the mid and upper level wave closes off, moisture will be wrapped around to the backside of the system. Latest hi-res guidance has backed off on the start time of the rain though with rain not beginning to fall until late Sunday morning/early afternoon. Rain looks to continue to fall through the rest of Sunday before pushing east of the area come Monday morning. Despite the best dynamics being east of the area, latest medium range guidance shows the dendritic growth zone (DGZ)
saturating along with sufficient omega (upward motion) values up to around 10-15 ubar/s in the DGZ. There also looks to be some potential for banding within the precipitation shield as medium range guidance does show frontogenesis (FGEN) at 600 mb. While forcing and moisture will be in place for rain, there is still disagreement in rainfall amounts. This is due to small changes in the storms track having meaningful changes on rainfall amounts. As of now, the GFS shows the highest rainfall amounts east of I-29 with amounts up to around three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain.
The HRRR on the other hand is the driest model as it shows rainfall amounts less then a tenth of an inch. The ensembles help ease this spread in rainfall amounts as they show a 40-80% chance for rainfall amounts to exceed a quarter of an inch east of I-29. The probabilities decrease for exceeding a half an inch of rain, down to a 30-60% chance. The highest probabilities reside across parts of northwest Iowa. This seems to be a more reasonable rainfall estimate and currently think a quarter of an inch to up to about three quarters of an inch of rain is likely but trends will be monitored.
Northwest Iowa remains the area to see the highest rainfall. Aside from rainfall amounts, high temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s expected. The warmest temperatures will occur west of I-29 where little if any rain is expected.
Dry conditions will briefly return on Monday with high temperatures warming to the 60s and even low 70s. There could be some elevated fire danger across parts of central South Dakota as humidity levels lower to near critical levels along with light to marginally breezy winds. Another shortwave trough will push into the Northern Plains Monday evening and night. This looks to be the next chance for rain as the ensembles show high probabilities (~80-100% chance) for exceeding a hundredth of an inch of rain. The probabilities quickly drop off with amounts of a tenth of an inch or more so this round of rain looks to be quite light. Low temperatures will fall to the 40s overnight.
Chances for rain look to persist throughout the week as a somewhat more active, zonal flow pattern sets up. Tough to say how much rain could fall each day at this time range but details will be ironed out in time. In terms of temperatures, highs look to remain near to above average in the 60s and 70s with lows falling to the 40s overnight.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds remain light through the period.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSUX
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUX
Wind History Graph: SUX
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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