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FXUS63 KFSD 101114 AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 514 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES

-Above normal temperatures return today and will continue into Monday as the quiet conditions continue.

-With a temporary return to colder temperatures on Tuesday, wind chills in the single digit to low teens will be possible on both Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

-Some smaller rain chances (10%-15%) return to the region on Friday. However, some uncertainty remains.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 349 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Today & Tonight:

Slight warmer and dry conditions ahead! Taking a look at current observations, most areas are off to a cooler start with many sites reporting temperatures in the teens to low 20s this morning. Expect the cooler conditions to hang around through at least the mid- morning as a combination of lingering cold air advection (CAA) and mid to upper level clouds hinder our mixing for a little while.
However, as a mid-level ridge moves overhead this afternoon, warm air advection (WAA) will return to the region which will help increase our temperatures. Nonetheless, with CAA to our east and WAA arriving from the west and northwest; There will be a positive to negative single digit split between our 925 mb temperatures this afternoon with the defining line being along a De Smet-Sioux Falls- Spencer, IA line. With this in mind, areas west of this line will likely get into mid 30s to low 40s for highs this afternoon while areas to the east of this line will stay in the low 30s. Otherwise, expect northwesterly winds to stay on the lighter side throughout the day and become more southerly to southeasterly overnight as overnight lows drop to the upper teens to low 20s for the night.

The Extended Forecast (Monday-Saturday):

Heading into the extended period, slightly warmer and mostly quiet conditions continue as we head into the start of the work week.
Taking a look aloft, westerly to northwesterly flow continues as an upper-level low scoots across the international border bringing a dry surface cold front through the region Monday night into Tuesday.
While precipitation is not expected with this near surface feature, a strong shot of cold air advection (CAA) behind the front will temporarily plummet our overall temperatures (especially at night).
Nonetheless, 925 mb temperatures will drop into the negative single digits with the coldest condition expected along the Buffalo Ridge in southwestern MN.

With all this in mind, expect our highs to decrease from the low to upper 40s on Monday to the upper 20s to mid 30s by Tuesday. As mentioned before, the real effects of the colder air will be felt at night as overnight lows decrease from the mid teens to low 20s on Monday night to the low teens to low 20s by Tuesday night. Lastly, with the SPG expected to tighten behind the previously mentioned cold front; cold wind chills in the single digit to low teens range are expected across the area on both Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Make sure to dress appropriately as you're making those morning commutes!

By Wednesday, a warming trend sets in as upper level ridging moves into the region from the northwest. This along with a shot of warm air advection (WAA) for a mid-level ridge Tuesday night should help bring our 850:925 mb temperatures back to above freezing thresholds.
With this in mind, temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be well above our seasonal normals with highs expected to be in the low to upper 40s on Wednesday and upper 40s to lower 50s by Thursday. As we head into the weekend, long-range deterministic guidance begins to diverge in the timing and placement of the next series of shortwaves.
However, most guidance does continue to keep some limited precipitation chances (10%-15%) in for Friday night with the highest chances along and east of I-29. Nonetheless, with temperatures expected to be in the low 40s at the time of arrive; most of the precipitation would fall as rain. Otherwise, expect the mild streak of temperatures to at least continue through Saturday as highs peak in the low to mid 40s for both days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 507 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. Taking a look across the area, mid to upper level cirrus continues to stream in from the west and northwest. Expect partly to mostly cloudy conditions for the rest of the day with cloud bases in 15kft to 20kft range. Otherwise, light westerly winds will become more southerly to southeasterly this evening to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

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