Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Haven, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 8:48PM Friday August 14, 2020 7:41 AM EDT (11:41 UTC) Moonrise 1:04AMMoonset 4:38PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Early this morning..East winds around 10 knots. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Today..East winds around 10 knots backing north. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..South winds around 5 knots veering northwest. Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots backing north. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ844 Expires:202008142000;;426464 FZUS53 KGRR 140806 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-142000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Haven, MI
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location: 42.4, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 140729 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 329 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 157 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

- Hot with a chance of an afternoon showers/storms in the south and east

- Best chance for storms Saturday evening

- Cooler and drier trends next week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Thursday) Issued at 157 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

-- Hot with a chance of an afternoon showers/storms in the south and east --

The upper ridge that has dominated the weather pattern this week will begin to break down this afternoon. This weakening ridge will be sandwiched between two upper level low pressure systems. One, is a weak wave will be moving through the Ohio valley and a stronger, deeper system that is making its way through the upper Midwest today.

As the weak system in Ohio moves northeastward, it will bring moist easterly flow across the Lower peninsula. This will increase the unstable CAPE to southern Michigan. Couple this CAPE with the hot daytime temperatures that are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s and you get a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The latest CAMS have storms sparking after 4 PM. However there remains several limiting factors. First, is the remaining stability of the region. That will stifle any convection from forming. The next is the lack of shear and upper level forcing. Any convection that does form, will be late in the afternoon, and will be in the east, near Jackson to Lansing, and south, perhaps on a very weak boundary south of Kalamazoo.

-- Best chance for storms Saturday evening --

The beformentioned system that is currently moving through the upper midwest, will trek through Michigan, on Saturday. The front weakens, with no convection expected through the first half of Saturday. However, the latest models have the system regaining its strength as it moves through central Michigan late Saturday. There is some moisture pooling ahead of it, but given the lack of diurnal heating and timing, any convection will quickly move into south east Michigan.

- Cooler and drier trends next week --

We will become under the influence of general trough aloft for much of next week. This results in much cooler temperatures, and a mainly dry forecast.

The latest model trends keep the upper jet mainly north and northeast of the area, on the anti-cyclonic side of the jet. A few isolated showers can not be ruled out, especially on Monday with a short wave not far away. However, ridging in the lower levels being produced by the upper ridge to our west should keep most of the area dry most of the time. In addition, moisture will be quite limited once it gets swept out on Sunday.

Temperatures will only get into the mid 70s on Monday, and will slowly rebound to the lower 80s by Thursday.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Some patchy/shallow fog is possible through sunrise, particularly at JXN which is a site more prone to radiation fog. Otherwise VFR conditions generally prevailing overnight and Friday.

Widely scattered showers and a few tstms are expected to develop toward 18Z Friday around JXN, spreading west and north from there through early evening before dissipating. If one of these cells passes over a terminal, some brief reductions in vsbys are possible. Sfc winds mainly easterly at 5-10 kts.

The risk for thunder is highest at JXN and LAN Friday so included VCTS at these sites and VCSH at the other terminals (except at MKG which should stay dry). That said, instability may be sufficient for a tstm west of JXN/LAN too Friday afternoon so it's something to watch.

MARINE. Issued at 157 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Winds will remain fairly light through the period. As such, headlines shouldn't be needed until the late Sunday- Monday time frame. Offshore winds will dominate the next couple of days, with winds becoming onshore for the late afternoon and evening hours due to the development of the lake breeze.

Winds will start to come up Saturday night ahead of the incoming cold front but the latest CAMS keep them below criteria. Stronger winds arrive behind the front and continue through Monday. Headlines will likely be needed with the lake waters near their annual peak warmth, and with a fairly cool air mass approaching.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . Ceru DISCUSSION . Ceru AVIATION . Meade MARINE . Ceru


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 1 mi41 min ENE 8.9 G 9.9 65°F
45168 3 mi31 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 75°F1 ft1017.3 hPa60°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 24 mi41 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 66°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.4)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 26 mi53 min ENE 7 G 8.9 1017.2 hPa
45029 35 mi31 min ENE 9.7 G 12 69°F 74°F1 ft1017.4 hPa62°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi41 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 1017.2 hPa71°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 57 mi31 min E 8.9 G 11 67°F 1018.1 hPa63°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI3 mi46 minENE 310.00 miFair60°F58°F94%1017.6 hPa
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi48 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist59°F55°F90%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWA

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3SE3E4E3E6SE5SE5E7E5SE3NE7NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmE3SE5SE4E4E6E3N5N3N7NW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW4N8NE7N6NW7N8NW9
G16
NW7N8NW6N5NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.