Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Haven, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 5:13PM Monday December 16, 2019 5:53 AM EST (10:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:08PMMoonset 11:53AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Early this morning..South winds around 5 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of snow. Waves 1 foot or less.
Today..Southeast winds around 5 knots backing north. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak.
Tuesday..Northwest winds around 15 knots backing west 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 8 feet toward daybreak.
Wednesday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201912162100;;863905 FZUS53 KGRR 160906 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-162100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Haven, MI
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location: 42.4, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 160830 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 330 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

-Dusting of light snow possible early this morning near/south of I-94 and also near/west of of Hwy 131

-Some light snow possible again tonight, mainly near/south of I-94

-Arctic air and lake effect snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday may create travel impacts; Wednesday morning commute is particularly vulnerable.

-Lengthy period of dry/benign weather with above normal temperatures from Thursday through Christmas

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Mid level shortwave over srn WI early this morning will try to spread some light snow across srn lwr MI early this morning as it continues east. However it is battling some dry air below 5000 ft, so some of this may just be virga or flurries.

Will need to keep a close eye on this though because if/where snow does manage to reach the ground it could lead to a slick Monday morning commute for some. Most likely places for this to occur would be near/south of the I-94 corridor and also near/west of Hwy 131 where some lake effect is attempting to develop at this hour. NAM is now suggesting some light accums for Muskegon and Ottawa Counties through mid-morning.

As the main wave ejects east from the srn plains region tonight, the impactful snows again pass south of Michigan. However the nrn fringe of the snow shield may clip far srn Lwr MI and another dusting of snow could impact the I-94 corridor.

The main weather highlight of the week is Tuesday night into Wednesday as an Arctic front slips south through the state and brings a brief bout of blustery conditions with lake effect snow showers. Sfc temps fall into the teens Tuesday night behind the front and remain in the teens on Wednesday, with wind chill readings falling to near zero as NW winds gust to 30-35 mph.

Tough snowfall fcst for Tuesday night and Wednesday, especially since it looks somewhat similar to the event last Tuesday which over-performed. Even though the deeper moisture and best lift will be over nrn Lwr MI and Upr MI on the cyclonic shear side of the upper jet, there's still a window between 06Z and 18Z Wed where accumulating snow looks possible in srn Lwr MI.

We will probably have a brief burst of snow showers area-wide with the Arctic frontal passage shortly after midnight Tue night, followed by lake effect near and west of Hwy 131 through mid day Wednesday. Current thinking is for local 1-4" snow accums with a slower than average Wednesday morning commute as combo of temps below 20 and coating of new snow creates icy spots. Intensity and coverage of snow showers should wane Wed afternoon as sfc ridging begins to build in and inversion heights drop below 5000 ft.

Strong signals in guidance of lengthy period of dry/uneventful weather for late week period through Christmas.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1243 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Ceilings have begun to lift towards VFR for most sites apart from immediate lakeshore areas such as MKG and BIV where MVFR ceilings persist. Virga is still expected at all TAF sites through the morning although a few flurries will be possible, especially for southern TAF sites such as AZO, BTL, and JXN. Winds will remain light and variable through the entire TAF period.

MARINE. Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Next period of concern for Lk MI is late Tuesday into Wednesday as brief blast of Arctic air brings a period of stronger NW flow. Small craft advisories will be needed and winds may even flirt with gales. Waves to 8 feet appear likely, highest south of MKG, which may also necessitate a Lakeshore Flood Advisory. The Arctic air could also support some freezing spray. Another high wind and wave event looks likely on Thursday and Friday when strong southwest flow may lead to 6+ foot waves north of Holland.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . Meade DISCUSSION . Meade AVIATION . Honor MARINE . Meade


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 1 mi54 min E 4.1 G 4.1 26°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 24 mi54 min Calm G 4.1 26°F 1021.7 hPa (+1.0)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 26 mi60 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 27°F 35°F1020 hPa24°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 57 mi44 min ENE 5.1 G 6 28°F 1022.7 hPa24°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI3 mi59 minN 04.00 miLight Snow26°F23°F93%1020.7 hPa
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi61 minSE 35.00 miOvercast with Haze27°F21°F81%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWA

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW7NW5NW5W5W7W7SW6W6W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmNW4NW6NW8NW9
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2 days agoS3S3CalmS3S6S5S4S4W3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.