Saturday, July24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beach Park, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:21PM Saturday July 24, 2021 4:26 PM CDT (21:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:18PMMoonset 5:50AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 335 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 24 2021
.severe Thunderstorm watch 391 in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt this evening, then shifting northwest around 10 kt late. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms likely late this afternoon and evening, some may be severe. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest in the afternoon. Hazy through the day. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming around 5 kt after midnight. Hazy in the evening. Waves 1 ft or less.
Monday..Northwest winds around 5 kt becoming southeast in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:202107250315;;393361 FZUS53 KLOT 242035 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 335 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-250315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beach Park, IL
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location: 42.41, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 242100 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION. 358 PM CDT

We have coordinated a severe thunderstorm watch with the SPC through 10 pm this evening. Semi-discrete storms have begun initiating across far northern IL advance of an approaching cold frontal boundary. Recent radar imagery suggests the storms are beginning to strengthen over northern sections of Cook county, with some rotation noted. In the near term, super cell type storm structures will be probable, but within the next couple hours congealing storm downdrafts and strengthening cold pools will likely result in upscale growth into forward-propagating line segments. Strong damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph look to be the primary threats late this afternoon through early this evening, with the highest threat looking to be over the Chicago metro area through 6 pm.

KJB

SHORT TERM. 235 PM CDT

Through Sunday night .

The primary focus for today is on the potential for severe thunderstorms. For information about that, please reference the AFD update above and any subsequent mesoscale discussions that are issued this afternoon and evening. A mesoscale discussion covering at least the next few hours will be issued soon.

The hot and humid conditions are the other ongoing story of the day. Current temperatures in the lower 90s and dew points as high as the upper 70s are producing oppressive conditions across the region with peak heat indices reaching triple digits in some spots. While the thunderstorms that move through the area will cool things down for a bit, there will be no reprieve from the soupy humidity until tomorrow as dew points will only begin to fall at a good clip in wake of the true cold frontal passage, which won't occur until overnight tonight. The new air mass being ushered in by the cold front is not exactly going to be a cooler air mass. While some degree of cloud cover is expected tomorrow, the strong late July Sun will allow for us to warm up into the lower 90s again in most locations. However, with dew points falling as low as the mid 50s by mid-afternoon tomorrow, peak heat indices won't be more than 2-3 degrees higher than tomorrow's maximum temperatures in most cases.

While we should be precipitation-free tomorrow, HRRR-Smoke runs suggest that a greater quantity of smoke will be transported into the area tomorrow behind the aforementioned cold front. Some of this smoke will likely be brought down closer to ground level, resulting in hazy conditions across the area for yet another day.

Ogorek

LONG TERM. 235 PM CDT

Thinking regarding the forecast from Monday through Friday remains unchanged, and the below discussion that was issued overnight remains valid.

Monday through Friday .

July's last full week will start hot with highs of 90 or a little over for many communities Monday through Wednesday. High dew points return Tuesday bringing potential for heat index readings to near 100, mainly on Wednesday. A strong cold front is projected on or near Thursday with potential for thunderstorms just prior to and during that transition.

Weak high pressure of 1016 mb will be over the area Monday. With light and variable winds, dew points will start nudging up, but still favor the drier ECMWF over the GFS on Monday, as the GFS just seems too moist for the setup. With ample sun Monday, temperatures could overperform a couple more degrees, with some 93-94 readings possible. A lake breeze will develop Monday.

A 500 mb ridge of 597 dam will become established over the lee side of the Rockies into the High Plains for Tuesday and Wednesday, with disturbed northwest flow on its periphery into the Great Lakes region. The focus for any convective initiation looks at this time to be well north of the area Tuesday and into the day Wednesday, anchored more toward the upper jet streak and associated short waves, and by Wednesday also a developing surface front. With low-level flow becoming southwesterly on Tuesday, the high dew point reservoir to our south will be steered back into the area, inevitably aided by evapotranspiration from mature crops. This may make the air mass a little more difficult to substantially heat (i.e. 93+ readings), as well as any returning smoke from fires. Nonetheless, with 850 mb temperatures of 19-22C predicted, hard to see why highs both Tuesday and Wednesday would not reach lower 90s with very warm nights. The signature for highest dew points (widespread mid 70s) is Wednesday, and this is the day we will have to keep an eye on for potential Heavy Advisory criteria.

The approach of the frontal system Wednesday night, as well as south-southeast steering flow, result in increasing storm chances and those continuing into Thursday due to model spread on timing. Not surprisingly in such a pattern, the parameter space is there for some severe threat in the Great Lakes region, including possibly an MCS Wednesday Night, but far too away to hang one's hat on much at this time. The surface front continues to be more agreed upon in global guidance over the past two days in shoving southward through the area during Thursday. This looks to bring at least a short episode of cooler temperatures and drier weather at the end of next week (possibly later Thursday, likely Friday, and possibly all of Saturday).

MTF

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

The primary concerns for the terminals continue to focus on the favored timing for strong thunderstorms this afternoon.

A minor disturbance is currently shifting eastward across IL, and is producing a few widely scattered showers south of the Chicago area terminals. This activity is expected to remain south of the terminals, but a few storms may develop into northwestern IN over the next couple hours. Otherwise, our main attention this afternoon is focused on a surface cold front, which is currently extends northeastward from northeastern IA into the Green Bay, WI area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front after 3 PM as this front approaches southeastern WI. These storms may develop right overhead, our just north of the terminals over southern WI and far northern IL before tracking southeastward across the area late this afternoon into the evening. The best timing for these storms impacting the Chicago area terminals continues to be in the 21 to 01z timeframe, with a slightly earlier time at RFD. Strong northerly wind gusts, potentially in excess of 50 kt will be possible with these strong storms as they shift across the area.

The storms will end at the terminals after about 01z as they shift south. However, the storms may continue to impact southward departures and arrivals through the evening as they continue shifting into central parts of IL and IN. The surface front will lag the storms by a considerable amount. Before it passes, there could to a few isolated or scattered showers or even a storm in the early to mid evening near ORD and MDW, but confidence continues to be very low with this possibility. Otherwise, there is some potential for some reduced visibilities in fog late tonight with diminishing low-level flow and continued high moisture. On Sunday, the west-northwesterly winds will increase.

KJB

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 3 mi87 min SSW 13 G 17 88°F
45186 3 mi27 min 80°F 71°F1 ft
45187 6 mi27 min 83°F 70°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 12 mi27 min W 12 G 24 91°F 1008.5 hPa (-1.3)
45174 21 mi27 min WSW 16 G 21 72°F2 ft1008 hPa (-2.0)
OKSI2 36 mi87 min N 2.9 G 8 92°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 37 mi37 min SW 16 G 17 89°F 76°F
CNII2 40 mi27 min SW 9.9 G 17 91°F 68°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 41 mi37 min WNW 13 G 18 89°F
JAKI2 45 mi147 min WSW 14 G 19 91°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi37 min S 9.7 G 9.7 74°F 2 ft1008.8 hPa72°F
45013 48 mi57 min WSW 16 G 19 83°F 69°F1 ft1009.4 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 49 mi57 min SW 8.9 G 18 1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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N8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL3 mi32 minWSW 8 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F74°F67%1007.9 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI14 mi34 minW 14 G 2410.00 miFair93°F72°F50%1008.6 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL21 mi35 minW 13 G 224.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Heavy Rain86°F76°F72%1009.2 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI24 mi34 minW 910.00 miFair91°F75°F59%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S11S7S5CalmCalmSW3SW6SW9SW5SW7SW8SW9SW7SW8SW8SW9
G15
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N8SW8
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1 day agoE9SE7SE6SE5S6SE5CalmCalmSW5SW5SW5SW6SW5SW3SW5SW6W644553SW8S7
2 days agoNE7NE7NE6NE5N3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW4SW5SW5SE6SE9E7SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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