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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fox Lake, IL

June 24, 2024 3:14 PM CDT (20:14 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM
Moonrise 11:12 PM   Moonset 7:43 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 952 Am Cdt Mon Jun 24 2024

Rest of today - Northeast winds around 5 kt becoming east late. Sunny. Waves around 1 ft.

Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 15 to 20 kt overnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

Tuesday night - West winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

LMZ700
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fox Lake, IL
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 241740 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will be pleasant with light winds, sunshine, and highs in the mid to upper 80s (cooler along Lake Michigan).

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible late tonight through Tuesday night, including threats for severe weather and flash flooding.

- Another period of active weather with strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding is possible Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Through Tuesday night:

Today will be relatively quiet. The center of a surface pressure ridge currently near the Mississippi River will drift eastward across the area throughout the day. Light winds, plenty of sunshine, and pleasant temperatures will result, with afternoon highs expected to top off in the mid to upper 80s. The weak surface pressure gradient will provide no resistance to a lake breeze surging inland this afternoon, leading to cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s along the lakeshore.

The main focus in the short term period is on the threat for several rounds of severe and heavy-rain producing thunderstorms from tonight through Tuesday night. This afternoon and evening, a plume of deep low-level moisture (with surface dew points in the mid to upper 70s) will arc northeastward into Minnesota beneath an EML with impressively steep mid-level lapse rates (sampled near 9 K/km on the 00Z GGW RAOB). The net result will be a pool of extreme instability characterized by MUCAPE >5000 J/kg within an highly sheared kinematic environment (upper-level jet located near the US/Canadian border). Thunderstorms appear likely to explode at some point this evening in Minnesota, though exactly where, when, and at what coverage remain unclear.

Based on an ensemble of high resolution model guidance and current observations, there appear to be three main candidates for forcing mechanisms to initiate convection this afternoon through the overnight period. The first is a subtle low- level wave responsible for mid-level clouds currently in northwestern Nebraska due to arrive in southern Minnesota this evening. The second is an upper-level shortwave and associated surface low (currently supporting thunderstorms in western North Dakota) due to arrive in central Minnesota after sunset. And, the third will be forcing along the nose of an intensifying 925-850mb low- level jet expected to lift into northern Iowa and western Wisconsin after midnight. With the instability axis expected to be oriented from northwest to southeast, any convection that develops upstream in Minnesota and Wisconsin will be encouraged to move southeastward into into northern Illinois or western Lower Michigan overnight. As a result, to what extent, when, and where each candidate forcing mechanism initiates convection (and all three may very well initiate their own area of convection) will ultimately dictate how the night unfolds for us.

In these kinds of regimes (extreme instability but with unclear/multiple sources of forcing), the range of forecast outcomes for areas downstream (e.g. our area) can be incredibly vast and include no thunderstorms (miss to the north) to destructive derechoes with a threat for widespread wind damage. At this point, even among different convective scenarios advertised by the past 24 hours of CAM guidance, there is a definite signal that at least part of our area will be impacted by thunderstorms tonight. Timing may be everything with severe weather potential, as an arrival too early before midnight (before deep instability arrives) may encourage thunderstorms to decay as they roll in.
However, if thunderstorms arrive after midnight as instability arrives, they may very well be severe. In all, the message tonight is to have multiple ways to get warnings including ways to wake you up.

The forecast for tomorrow (Tuesday) is, well, unclear. Big-picture wise, a cold front is expected to drop southward across our area from late afternoon through early evening and into a pool of extreme instability and considerable column moisture (MUCAPE >5000 J/kg, PWATs >2"). Even with modest deep layer shear (the upper-level jet is still well to our north), environments with extreme instability can allow for small but highly organized clusters with destructive wind potential. And, any sort of training in environments with PWATS >2" would entail a threat for flash flooding. Now, based on the coverage and intensity of thunderstorms tomorrow morning, there appear myriad of forecast scenarios for the afternoon and evening. One scenario is a dry period between the morning and an eventual evening round of thunderstorms in part of our area, another is simply no evening thunderstorms (e.g. eventual frontal convergence is shunted too far south/west of our area by morning thunderstorms), and third is thunderstorms backbuild off of morning activity and continuing to train over our area literally all day. And, that's not to mention the scenario where no storms reach our area tonight, leading to a widespread convective event across our entire area tomorrow afternoon and evening (e.g. instability axis is pristine). At this point, the best we can do is simply advertise the threat for thunderstorms on Tuesday including a threat for severe weather and flash flooding, and encourage everyone to stay up to date on the forecast.

Perhaps one thing is becoming more clear... With prospects for thunderstorms or associated cloud cover around the neighborhood throughout parts or most of the day tomorrow, chances for dangerous heat and humidity developing on a widespread basis appear to be lowering.

Borchardt

Wednesday through Sunday:

A cold front responsible for potential convection Tuesday into Tuesday night will be shifting SSE across the CWA at sunrise on Wednesday. Any showers and residual storms Tuesday night should be exiting the southern CWA by mid-morning Wednesday. However, with the main mid-level wave trailing the cold front by several hours, some diurnally based showers and perhaps an isolated storm may develop across primarily the southeast half of the CWA late Wednesday morning into early afternoon before dry air advection and mid-level subsidence end precip changes.
Otherwise, a brief period of quiet conditions is in store late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with dry weather and seasonable temperatures as a broad surface high moves across the Great Lakes region.

A low-amplitude mid-level ridge will cross the region Thursday night into Friday morning as broad lee cyclogenesis occurs ahead of a deep trough digging into the northern Rockies. Strong low- level moisture transport below a plume of modest mid-level lapse rates across the mid and Upper-Mississippi River Valley will set the stage for a conditionally unstable environment by Friday morning. There is some concern that a cluster of convection developing across the Missouri River Valley Friday morning will approach the forecast area before outrunning the better thermodynamic environment toward the western Great Lakes Friday afternoon. While this is still pretty far out for pinning down the exact evolution of convection, the signal of robust convection in global ensemble guidance combined with a modest parameter space for severe convection bears close watching over the next several days. This also includes a notable signal for flash flooding with PWATS likely around or above 2" and the potential for a stalling effective outflow boundary in the vicinity. Needless to say, Friday through Saturday could be another rather active period for our region.

A dry and seasonably cool airmass is progged to settle over the region as we turn the calendar from June to July before another signal for active weather appears during the lead-up to Independence Day.

Kluber

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Aviation weather concerns are:

- Increasing thunderstorm chances late tonight/Tuesday morning with some threat for strong to severe wind gusts.

A lake breeze has brought a NE/E wind shift to ORD, MDW, and GYY. Whether it continues to surge at its current pace towards DPA or slows down remains a bit unclear, but elected to move up the timing to account for the faster movement. Regardless, winds will eventually return to a S and SW direction overnight.

The main change was to convert the PROB30 groups to TEMPOs for TSRA late tonight and Tuesday morning. Expectation is for explosive thunderstorm development across Minnesota this evening within a highly unstable environment, with thunderstorms growing into a surging complex. While uncertainties remain regarding specific timing of this complex into the c90 (and refinements to TSRA timing will likely be needed), confidence was high enough to justify TEMPOs. While this thunderstorm complex should be in a gradual weakening phase, strong to severe wind gusts will remain possible as it moves through the region.

A VCTS threat may continue a bit beyond the end time of the current TEMP groups, but this was not high enough confidence to justify a mention at this time. Conditions may remain largely quiet through Tuesday in the wake of this morning activity with gusty southwesterly winds developing through the morning and afternoon.

Carlaw

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45186 20 mi44 minNE 5.8G7.8 67°F 67°F1 ft
45187 21 mi44 minESE 3.9G5.8 66°F 62°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 22 mi74 minE 1.9G4.1 70°F 29.97
45174 33 mi54 minENE 7.8G9.7 69°F 70°F1 ft29.9367°F
45199 34 mi104 minE 5.8 64°F 67°F1 ft30.05
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 44 mi34 minSE 7G8 66°F
OKSI2 45 mi134 minESE 5.1G6 72°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 46 mi54 minE 12G13 78°F 76°F
45198 48 mi44 minENE 7.8G9.7 71°F 70°F1 ft29.98
CNII2 48 mi29 minENE 5.1G6 74°F 65°F


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL 15 sm23 minSE 0710 smClear75°F61°F61%29.96
KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI 18 sm21 minSE 0810 smClear79°F61°F54%29.97
KBUU BURLINGTON MUNI,WI 21 sm19 minESE 0710 smPartly Cloudy81°F66°F62%29.94
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Wind History graph: UGN
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Milwaukee, WI,




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