Wednesday, August5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Eagle Point, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday August 5, 2020 5:34 PM PDT (00:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:59PMMoonset 7:01AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 219 Pm Pdt Wed Aug 5 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm pdt this evening...
.gale warning in effect from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening...
Tonight..NW wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 15 to 20 kt...easing to 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..N wind 5 kt...rising to 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu night..N wind 20 to 25 kt except nw 10 to 20 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..N wind 20 to 25 kt...rising to 30 kt in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night..N wind 30 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 15 to 20 kt...easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft...subsiding to 3 to 6 ft after midnight. NW swell 5 to 6 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 10 kt...rising to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
Sat night..N wind 30 kt...easing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 6 to 9 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Sun..N wind 25 kt...rising to 30 kt in the evening, then... Easing to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 8 to 10 ft...subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. NW swell 5 ft.
Mon..N wind 25 kt...easing to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft...subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. NW swell 5 to 6 ft.
PZZ300 219 Pm Pdt Wed Aug 5 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Northerly winds and steep seas are expected to build south and west of humbug mountain this afternoon and evening as the trough strengthens. Winds and seas will then weaken Wednesday night as a cold front moves through. The thermal trough will re-strengthen Thursday afternoon bringing the return of advisory level conditions south of cape blanco. Friday through the weekend hazardous winds and seas are likely to expand and strengthen further with gales expected south of cape blanco.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eagle Point, OR
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location: 42.42, -122.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 052144 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 244 PM PDT Wed Aug 5 2020

DISCUSSION. A 18z sounding from the IMET on the July fire complex showed similar instability and lapse rates to the model data, but the shear was 5kt higher for all elements. This increases confidence that any thunderstorms in Modoc, Lake, and eastern Klamath Counties will be capable of producing hail nearing one inch. These storms could also have strong outflow winds with them as well. Siskiyou County is still not showing an environment as capable of the one inch hail, but pea sized hail should be anticipated with any thunderstorm.

Thursday morning, increased QPF along the coast by a few hundredths, so areas from Coos Bay north could see up to one tenth of accumulation, with areas from Port Orford north receiving around 0.05" of accumulation. The front looks to hold together more than has been shown the past few days, so northern Douglas County could also observe a few hundredths of rain. However, it is more likely this will result from accumulating drizzle and be contained more to higher elevations in the mid-morning. The front will also bring strong west winds along and east of the Cascade crest.

Following this, the weather mellows out onshore, but a strong thermal trough takes up over the marine waters and is likely to cause gale force winds. Offshore flow looks modest with easterly 850 to 825 mb winds around 20 to 25 knots. Temperatures will warm into the new week for the whole area. Highs are expected to hit 99 on Monday in Medford with 106 expected in Happy Camp and Somes Bar. No heat related advisories are anticipated at this time, but if overnight lows continue to warm as the afternoon highs have, a short duration advisory may be considered.

There are indications of a trough returning early next week. Most solutions maintain an open wave pattern and the GFS deterministic has backed off on showing a cutoff low. We will monitor for trends towards a cutoff low pattern as it is favorable for thunderstorms, but for now have excluded them from the forecast. -Miles

AVIATION. For the 05/18Z TAF Cycle . IFR/MVFR ceilings at the coast and in the Umpqua Basin will clear by early afternoon to VFR. We expect IFR conditions (perhaps low MVFR) to return to the coast/coastal valleys around 02Z and then reach the Umpqua Valley and KRBG by around 09z, but the KRBG ceilings could be a low VFR ceiling around 3500 feet. An approaching cold front will bring a chance for showers to the coast Thursday morning.

Elsewhere, inland areas will have breezy conditions this afternoon, and VFR conditions are expected except over and near the Scott Valley and areas east of the Cascades this afternoon into this evening. In those areas isolated to scattered thunderstorms-some of which could be strong or even severe-are expected. These thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and, possibly, micro-bursts. Thunderstorms are possible at KLMT this afternoon, but those should move east of there by evening.

Over southwest Siskiyou County near the Red Salmon Fire there's likely to be some local MVFR visibility restrictions due to smoke. ~Keene/BTL

MARINE. Updated 230 PM PDT Wednesday, 5 August 2020 . A borderline Small Craft Advisory event continues south of Port Orford and beyond about 3 NM from shore, with north winds 20 to 25 kt and seas around 6 ft. Winds and seas will weaken tonight as a cold front moves through.

The thermal trough will then re-strengthen Thursday afternoon bringing the return of advisory level conditions south of Cape Blanco. Friday through the weekend winds and seas are likely to strengthen further with advisory level winds and seas expected to expand to areas north of Cape Blanco by Saturday. Gales are likely for a portion of the area south of Cape Blanco with advisory levels winds and seas expected for all areas south of the Cape. It should be noted that Friday through early next week could be a prolonged upwelling event for the coastal waters with multiple consecutive days of hazardous conditions. Keene/BTL

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 230 PM PDT Wednesday 5 August 2020 . The main concern in the forecast period will be scattered thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening. Scattered coverage is expected in portions of the east side in Oregon, and western Siskiyou county.

The upper trough is moving inland in northern California. Instability, mid level moisture and trigger will be higher east of the Cascades and Western Siskiyou county, and a Red Flag warning is in place for these areas.

Thursday, the upper trough shifts east and any threat of storms will be east of the forecast area. Temperatures will be cooler and relative humidity higher, however gusty winds are expected in the afternoon due to a combination of a stronger winds aloft and tightening pressure gradient.

Friday through next weekend should remain dry with a thermal trough developing along the coast with increasing east to northeast winds near and at the ridges in fire zones 618, 619 and western 280.

The operational run of the GFS is showing an upper low deepening of the coast of Central California early next week, with instability in northern California Monday and Tuesday. However, most models are not showing this, and have not added this at this time. This will be something to focus on as we approach this time period. -Sven

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA . Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 93 mi47 min NW 8 G 9.9 60°F 59°F1015.5 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 99 mi25 min NW 12 G 16 56°F1015.4 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 99 mi47 min NNW 11 G 18 65°F 49°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR11 mi42 minW 10 G 1810.00 miFair89°F55°F31%1008.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12N15N11N9NW4CalmW4N4NW4N4NW6NW5N3CalmCalmN53CalmNW64N5W9NW12W10
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1 day agoNW7N17N8NW7NW6NW5CalmN5N3S3SE3W4CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNW433NW4NW7W10NW11
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N12N8N9N7NW6N4NE4N5N4N3CalmCalmN33Calm455CalmW8NW8NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:52 AM PDT     7.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:47 AM PDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:08 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:20 PM PDT     6.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:48 PM PDT     2.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:05 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.97.26.75.63.92.20.7-0.3-0.6-01.22.84.35.56.15.95.34.33.32.72.52.93.85

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM PDT     6.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:59 AM PDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:08 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:28 PM PDT     5.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:00 PM PDT     2.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:06 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.46.86.55.542.40.9-0.2-0.5-0.10.92.43.95.15.75.75.14.23.32.62.32.63.44.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.