Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Selma, OR

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Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 8:09PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 10:23 PM PDT (05:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:55PMMoonset 10:17AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 907 Pm Pdt Tue Aug 20 2019
.gale watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Tonight..S wind 10 to 15 kt northern portion and se 5 to 10 kt brookings southward. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..Northern portion, S wind 5 to 10 kt. Brookings southward, S wind 5 kt until late afternoon... Becoming variable less than 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 14 seconds... Building to 7 ft at 12 seconds in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Wed night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and early morning...veering to N 15 kt. Wind variable less than 5 kt early in the evening. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 7 ft at 10 seconds. Slight chance of rain.
Thu..N wind 20 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 10 kt...backing to nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. W swell 5 ft...becoming nw 1 to 2 ft and W 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..N wind 30 kt...easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 20 to 25 kt... Becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft... Building to 5 ft after midnight.
Fri..Northern portion, N wind 15 to 20 kt. Brookings southward, N wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW wind 15 to 20 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 10 kt... Veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 3 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. Mixed swell W 4 ft and sw 2 ft.
Sun..N wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 25 kt in the evening, then...easing to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft...building to 5 ft in the afternoon, then...building to 7 ft in the evening...subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Mixed swell nw 4 ft and sw 2 ft.
PZZ300 907 Pm Pdt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A cold front will bring south winds and building westerly swell tonight into Wednesday, highest north of cape blanco. A thermal trough will restrengthen Thursday with north gales and very steep hazardous seas possible south of cape blanco late in the afternoon and evening. Conditions then remain hazardous to small craft through Friday. Winds and seas lower briefly Friday night into Saturday, but gales are possible again by Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Selma, OR
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location: 42.42, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 210353
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
853 pm pdt Tue aug 20 2019

Discussion As of 8:45 pm, the initial cloud shield has moved
east of the coast, and is about to exit medford. These clouds have
a distinct north-south line and should also be exiting the west
side in the next half hour to 45 minutes. Areas east of the
cascades will take a bit longer to clear out.

The front that will provide us more fall-like conditions is still
positioned offshore. Have started looking extensively at
precipitation amounts, temperatures, and winds. Have not found
anything that would indicate any need for changes in the next 6
hours.

For tomorrow, want to take a closer look at the next model data;
but it is worth noting that the past runs of the models,
including ensembles, have been underdispersive regarding this
system. So, will have to continue checking into things. The logic
of the previous forecast makes sense, and encourage you to read
the discussion below. -schaaf

Prev discussion issued 539 pm pdt Tue aug 20 2019
discussion... Overall, conditions are similar to what they were
yesterday and we expect the warm and dry conditions to continue
into this evening. Satellite indicates an increase in high level
clouds that will stream over the area as the afternoon progresses,
and this will be the first indication of a front expected to move
through during the day Wednesday.

This front is quite unusual for this time of year. If it was mid-
october, it would be considered weak among our more stronger fall-
like systems. However, since it is late august, this front seems a
little more significant, especially in terms of moisture. As far as
winds go, we'll see an increase in afternoon winds on Wednesday,
especially east of the cascades, but nothing that warrants any
headlines. The moisture on the other hand, is a bit more unusual,
especially by august standards. Technically it does have tropical
origins and is considered an atmospheric river. However, the bulk of
the moisture is expected to be north of the forecast area, but the
southern fringe of the front will deliver some beneficial rain to
the northern portions of the forecast area. While it was previously
thought that wetting rains would be isolated at best, models have
trended wetter. Now wetting rains look more widespread but still
resigned to the coastal locations north of CAPE blanco and the
higher terrain of coos county. Some of the guidance is indicating
much higher amounts than what we have in the forecast, but it's
difficult to buy into those solutions given the time of year and
that this front is coming into a dry air mass. Decided to go with
the mean solution for this scenario which results in roughly 0.20"-
0.30" north of CAPE blanco and west of i-5, with 0.10"-0.20" roughly
north of a line from gold beach to the umpqua divide and crater
lake. For the rest of the area north of the or ca border and west of
the cascades, only a few hundreths are expected and even that may be
too optimistic for the usually drier places, like the rogue valley.

Expect rain to begin at the coast by early Wednesday morning,
spreading inland through the day.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than
today, but this cool down will be short lived. Once this front
passes through Wednesday night, the thermal trough will quickly
redevelop and hot, dry conditions with nightly intrusions of marine
stratus along the coast will return Thursday and into the weekend.

Beyond the weekend, models show a strong ridge building over the
area with temperatures climbing higher, possibly into the triple
digits by mid-week. Br-y
aviation... For the 21 00z tafs...VFR conditions are expected at all
locations through the early evening hours. Then marine layer MVFR
ceilings will push in to the coast tonight, though there is greater
than normal uncertainty in timing of ceiling arrival. We've pushed
back the MVFR conditions until 07z in the latest TAF update. After
that, a front will arrive Wednesday morning and ceilings could lower
again with rainfall.

At inland locations, expect MVFR ceilings with the front to arrive
in the umpqua basin and at krbg Wednesday afternoon. Rain and
mountain obscuration will impact the coast range late Wednesday
morning into Wednesday afternoon and will spread east into the
cascades Wednesday evening. Gusty winds and increased turbulence
ahead of the front will impact areas east of the cascades Wednesday
afternoon. Keene
marine... Updated 230 pm pdt Tuesday 20 august 2019... A small craft
advisory is in effect beyond about 20 nm from shore and north of
cape blanco tonight into Wednesday due to gusty south-southwest
winds, steep south-southwest wind waves and increasing west swell
associated with a cold front. Most areas can also expect a period of
rain to accompany the front, though impacts from the front will be
much less for areas farther south and east.

Short period waves ease Wednesday afternoon, but swell will persist
into Thursday. Then, a thermal trough will restrengthen quickly on
Thursday with rapidly increasing north winds and steepening short
period seas. Gale force winds and very steep seas are possible south
of CAPE blanco by late Thursday afternoon evening, so we have
hoisted a gale watch for areas mainly beyond 5nm from shore and
south of port orford. Conditions hazardous to small craft will also
expand north of CAPE blanco during this time frame.

Late Thursday night into Friday, the thermal trough won't be as
strong, so gales will most likely end. However, small craft
conditions are likely to persist. Further weakening of the thermal
trough Friday night into Saturday will cause winds and seas to lower
briefly, but it will strengthen again Sunday with gales possible
again by Monday. -spilde

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt Wednesday for pzz370.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 36 mi59 min ESE 8 G 8.9 56°F 53°F1019 hPa
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 48 mi59 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 60°F 60°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR30 mi27 minESE 310.00 miFair57°F53°F87%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------CalmCalm--3SE4CalmCalmS4SE3SE6SE5S66--W3SW4SW4SW3CalmCalm
1 day ago--SE4--SE3----CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS4SW3SW3SW4--S5SW3SW5SE3CalmS3--
2 days agoSE64CalmCalm--NW3CalmCalmCalm--SW3CalmSE4S3SW4S4Calm4Calm4Calm3SE4--

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
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Wed -- 03:55 AM PDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:01 AM PDT     1.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:19 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:22 PM PDT     5.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:03 PM PDT     1.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.44.24.854.84.23.32.51.91.71.92.63.54.65.45.85.85.34.43.42.51.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Wed -- 03:47 AM PDT     5.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:49 AM PDT     1.81 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:18 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:14 PM PDT     6.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:51 PM PDT     1.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.84.65.15.354.33.42.621.82.22.93.955.86.265.44.53.52.621.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.