Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cairo, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday July 29, 2021 5:36 AM EDT (09:36 UTC) Moonrise 11:33PMMoonset 11:38AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cairo, NY
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location: 42.42, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 290751 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 351 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the region early this morning will shift eastward off the New England coast by this afternoon. An area of low pressure and an upper level disturbance will move across the region this afternoon into the evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Another disturbance and a cold front will move through tonight with additional showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms will produce locally heavy rainfall. A fall-like air mass will build in for Friday, with breezy conditions and below normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Tranquil conditions to start the day with some patchy fog in sheltered valley and patches of low stratus clouds east of Poughkeepsie in Litchfield County. Currently watching an MCS tracking southeast across southern Wisconsin/Lake Michigan. The trajectory of this system should pass by well south of our area. However, we are expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon as a separate upper level disturbance (clearly evident in GOES-East water vapor imagery) farther north approaches from the upper Great Lakes. Large scale forcing will increase across our area, with some instability developing. Fortunately, forecast SBCAPE from GFS, NAM and HREF indicating only around max SBCAPE values of 500-1000 J/Kg, with a warm front and greater instability remaining south of our area. HREF showing highest probs for max updraft helicity across PA/NJ. Isolated strong to severe storms may scrape parts of Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties which is where a Marginal Risk of severe storms from the Storm Prediction Center remains in place.

The greater hazard in our area will be locally heavy rainfall associated with convective cells. Moist ground conditions in place, so will have to watch for storms repeatedly moving over the same areas for possible isolated flash flooding. Storm motions should be relatively quick today, with increasing mid level flow and deep layer shear around 30-40 kt. However due to antecedent wet conditions and multiple rounds of showers and storms, most of our area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Minor flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas is expected, with scattered flash flooding.

Temperatures will be on the cool side today due to the increasing clouds and coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Highs only expected to be in the 70s for valleys today. Humidity levels will increase, with dewpoints rising into the 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/. It appears we may get a brief break (or at least less coverage) from the showers and thunderstorms, as the first disturbance moves east of the region. However, with a continued broad upper level trough in place across the Great Lakes and Northeast, another upper level short wave will be rapidly approaching from the north/west by later this evening. This will result in another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Convection should be elevated, so the main threat will continue to be locally heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding. This will especially be of concern for areas that have repeated downpours. Again we are expecting relatively quick storm motions, but some areas will experience multiple rounds of showers and storms which would increase the flood threat in those areas. Slight Risk of excessive rainfall persists through the night. Following trends in the CAMs, showers and storms should finally taper off towards early Friday morning as the short wave and associated cold front push south/east through the region.

We will get a taste of fall in late July on Friday, with a broad upper level trough remaining in place and a northwest flow regime. Cold advection impressive for this time of year, with 850 mb temperature anomalies decreasing to around -2 to -3 STDEV during the day. This will translate to temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal. A gusty northwest wind will make it feel even cooler, with gusts of 20-30 mph developing by afternoon. A few brief/light showers will be possible Friday morning as the upper trough axis moves through, but dry conditions expected during the afternoon. Clouds will be prevalent through the morning, with increasing sunshine in the afternoon. Cloud cover will hang on longer across the higher terrain.

Mainly clear and cool conditions in store for Friday night. There will still be a bit of a breeze due to a pressure gradient remaining, with high pressure building in across the Ohio Valley. So while it will be quite cool, some mixing should limit temps reaching record cold levels. Still, most of the area will have lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday will be another cool day, although with less wind than Friday. Temperatures will be similar, with highs in the lower/mid 70s in valleys and 60s in the higher terrain. It should remain dry, with high pressure centered to our south over the mid Atlantic region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Although Saturday night will start off dry, the chances for precip will increase through the overnight and especially into the day on Sunday, as a strong upper level shortwave rotates across the area within the large scale trough in place over the Northeast. Highest POPs look to be on Sunday afternoon, especially for northern areas. Some rumbles of thunder are possible as well and some locally heavy downpours will be possible. After morning lows in the 50s, afternoon highs should reach into the mid 70s for most areas on Sunday.

A few showers could linger into Sunday night or early Monday as the upper level trough axis moves through the area. Otherwise, skies will be clearing and it will be drying out for the early portion of next week. With somewhat lower heights/cooler temps aloft in place, highs will likely be a little below normal for Mon through Wed, with highs only in the 70s. Dewpoints will mainly be in the 50s, so it won't feel too muggy at all.

Another upper level disturbance will be approaching towards midweek. This feature is difficult to time, as it may close off and/or move slowly, but some showers could return towards the middle to latter portion of the week. For now, will keep POPs fairly low, but will need to monitor.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Flying conditions are currently VFR at all taf sites. Through the rest of the overnight hours, winds will continue to be calm for all sites. There may be some passing clouds with ceilings around 5 kft, mainly around KGFL and KPSF, as well as high cirrus clouds. There should be enough passing clouds to prevent widespread radiational fog from developing.

The morning will be dry for all sites with bkn cigs around 5-7 kft and southerly winds around 5 to 10 kts. It will continue to be VFR for all sites. However, some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be moving in for the afternoon hours. Activity will be scattered, but most sites should see some precip during the afternoon or early evening hours. There is the potential for a brief t-storm lowering visibility to IFR range, so will include this PROB30 for all sites. Otherwise, it will generally be VFR outside of the precip with southerly winds of 5 to 10 kts.

Flying conditions look to lower down to MVFR for Thursday evening for all sites with light southerly winds. Ceilings will be lowering to 2-3 kft. While there should be a few hour break with no precip, more showers will be moving in for Thursday night. MVFR/IFR visibility will be possible with these showers as well.

Outlook .

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact Likely SHRA. TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact Likely SHRA. TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. High pressure over the region early this morning will shift eastward off the New England coast by this afternoon. An area of low pressure and an upper level disturbance will move across the region this afternoon into the evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Another disturbance and a cold front will move through tonight with additional showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms will produce locally heavy rainfall. A fall-like air mass will build in for Friday, with breezy conditions and below normal temperatures.

Minimum relative humidity values today will be around 60 to 80 percent, increasing to around 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Friday will be between 50 to 65 percent.

Winds today will become southerly increasing to 5 to 15 mph, with some occasional gusts to 20 mph. Winds tonight will remain southerly around 5 to 10 mph. Winds on Friday will shift to the northwest and increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

HYDROLOGY. Dry weather is expected to persist through this morning. Then showers and thunderstorms will become likely this afternoon, with periods of showers and storms lasting through much of tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will occur, resulting in minor flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas. Scattered flash flooding is also possible, as 30-day rainfall estimates indicate 150-400 percent of normal precip across the region with multiple rounds of showers and storm with downpours. Many area rivers will experience a rise in water levels tonight into Friday morning as a result of the rain, but river flooding is not expected at this time, with most areas remaining below action stage.

Dry weather returns for Friday, with breezy and cooler conditions. It should remain dry through Saturday, with increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms by Sunday as a strong disturbance moves across the region. Additional heavy rainfall may occur in parts of the area, which could result in some hydro issues. Stay tuned for further updates.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . JPV NEAR TERM . JPV SHORT TERM . JPV LONG TERM . Frugis AVIATION . Frugis FIRE WEATHER . JPV HYDROLOGY . JPV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 29 mi67 min Calm 60°F 1015 hPa58°F
TKPN6 29 mi49 min Calm G 0 61°F 76°F1016 hPa59°F
NPXN6 41 mi67 min NE 1.9 60°F 1017 hPa58°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 97 mi49 min SSW 6 G 8.9 70°F 74°F1015.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 99 mi49 min SW 9.9 G 11 71°F 74°F1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY27 mi46 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F54°F100%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

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Last 24hrN5N5N7N9N7N8N6N7N6NE56N5N3N3NE3N3NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmS5SE3S4CalmSE64S75NW19
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Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
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Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:28 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.60.90.50.81.82.83.64.14.343.12.11.40.7-000.8233.74.14.23.6

Tide / Current Tables for Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York
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Coxsackie
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Thu -- 02:23 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:35 AM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:46 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:11 PM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.610.40.41.12.12.93.53.83.83.22.21.40.7-0-0.30.21.32.333.53.83.62.9

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