Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cairo, NY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Key Message:

- There is a 25 to 75% chance for temperatures to drop to or below 35 degrees late Thursday night into Friday morning, necessitating frost advisories or some freezing warnings where the growing season is still ongoing in the Hudson Valley and Litchfield County.

Discussion:

A dreary October day continues as moisture remains trapped underneath the low-level inversion seen on the 12 UTC ALY sounding supporting low stratus and even patchy drizzle.
Temperatures have struggled to warm so lowered highs a bit compared to the NBM and expect many to only reach into the mid to upper 50s which is still seasonable for mid-October. As our mid-level ridge axis in central NY builds further east through the afternoon, the increased subsidence should help erode the low clouds/drizzle resulting in breaks of late day sun. While skies turn partly to mostly clear for the first half of the night, a moisture starved cold front and shortwave trough marches southeastward out of Canada late tonight into tomorrow morning. This will usher in additional clouds for a period with winds shifting to the north-northwest and becoming gusty in its wake. Expecting breezy winds through much of the day tomorrow as morning clouds give way to increased afternoon sun. The 25th and 75th NBM guidance shows wind gusts ranging from 15 to 25mph for much of eastern NY and western New England, especially as skies turn clearer and the boundary layer deepens during the afternoon. Probabilities for gusts at or above 30mph remain under 10% so confidence is high that gusts should remain under this threshold. Otherwise, temperatures should remain seasonable rising into the mid to upper 50s (low 60s in the mid-Hudson Valley).

We remain clear Wed night and while radiational cooling and cold air advection will help temperatures drop into the upper 20 to mid-30s, winds will remain elevated sustained 5-10 mph which should mitigate frost formation. Thursday stays clear as subsidence builds in the wake of the departing shortwave and high pressure from the Great Lakes expands eastward. The sfc pressure gradient between the incoming high and departing sfc low remains tight enough to support continued breezy winds, especially given sunny skies and deeper boundary layer mixing.
The 25th to 75th percentile wind gust guidance from the NBM ranges from 20 to 25mph with even 10 to 25% chance for winds to reach or exceed 30mph in western New England and the Taconics.
In addition, the north-northwest winds will advect a very dry air mass into the Northeast with PWATs ~0.25" or about 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal per the NAEFS. Dew points falling into the 20s and RH values in the 30% range may support enhanced fire spread, depending on fuels, mainly in southern VT.
Will coordinate with state fire partners to decide if there will be any fire weather concerns. High pressure moves overhead heading into Thursday night with winds diminishing. Near ideal radiational cooling within such a dry air mass will support chilly temperatures and there is a 25 to 75% chance for temperatures to drop below 35 degrees where the growing season is still ongoing (Hudson Valley into Litchfield County).
Therefore, confidence is increasing that we may need frost advisories or even freeze warnings in at least a portion of this area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Message:

- Monitoring a potential strong cold front for Sunday night into Monday resulting in our next widesprad rain event. There is a 50 to 75% chance for at least 0.75" of rain across eastern NY and western New England.

Discussion:

High pressure remains overhead on Friday supporting continued dry and seasonable conditions before an amplifying large scale ridge from the Ohio Valley builds towards the Northeast. As the ridge axis and associated warm front lifts into the region, there is sufficient mid-level moisture to support increased cloud coverage Fri night into Saturday morning but with dry low- levels, most showers look confined to the western and southern Adirondacks where moisture will be higher and the thermal gradient a bit stronger. POPs are therefore limited to slight chance and chance in this area. As the ridge axis pushes through the Northeast on Saturday, the associated warm sector overspreads the region resulting in a warming temperature trend.
There is a 40 to 70% chance for temperatures on Saturday to rise above 60 degrees with 50 to 75% chance for temperatures on Sunday to exceed 65 degrees.

The trough currently impacting the western U.S will evolve as it traverses the CONUS this week and eventually morph into a compact shortwave over the MS River Valley later this weekend.
Guidance even suggests it could take on a negative tilt supporting widespread strong height falls/strong forcing for ascent, a rather potent cold front and impressive mid and upper level jet (v-wind component becoming 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal). In response, large scale ridging amplifies downstream over the Northeast for Sunday. The latest ensemble cluster analysis suggests the main points of uncertainty focus on the exact strength of the ridge and how quickly it shifts to our east as well as the strength/amplitude of the incoming shortwave trough. Both impact the exact timing of the heaviest rainfall. Should the ridge over the Northeast end up being weaker, the heaviest rain from the incoming potent cold front looks to occur mainly Sunday evening/night. On the other hand, if the ridge ends up being stronger, the heaviest rain looks delayed until late Sunday night or even daytime Monday. Either way, there is good agreement that this disturbance will result in a widespread rainfall with the various ensemble clusters generally supporting 50 to 75% probabilities for at least 0.75" of rainfall across much of eastern NY and western New England during the Sunday night to Monday time frame.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18z Wednesday.. MVFR conditions continue at ALB, POU, PSF this afternoon with IFR at GFL as moisture remains trapped underneath the low-level inversion. As subsidence increases through this afternoon, expecting improving flying conditions back to VFR by 00 to 03 UTC at all terminals. Then, VFR conditions continue overnight before a moisture starved cold front arrives late tonight into tomorrow morning (12 - 15 UTC)
from northwest to southeast. While mid-level clouds return with the frontal passage, ceilings should remain VFR. Winds then turn gusty in the wake of the front tomorrow morning with northerly winds becoming sustained 5-15kts and gusts up to 15-25kts through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Areas FROST.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.