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FXUS61 KALY 030522 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 122 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure positioned to our east will bring another warm and dry day across the region with comfortable humidity levels.
A weak cold front will cross the region tonight through Independence Day with an increase in humidity along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will keep warm and humid conditions across the region Friday into the weekend with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure has shifted to the east as high clouds spread across the region ahead of an approaching warm front. These clouds have resulted in a variation in surface temperatures across the region based on their scattered/broken nature. Most areas will start the day in the 50s to lower 60s. Any fog that does develop by daybreak looks to be fairly isolated.

The warm front will lift northward across our area on Wednesday, but the surface high off to our east combined with upper level ridging overhead will maintain warm and dry weather with humidity levels remaining low. Highs will be similar to Tuesday except perhaps a degree or two warmer with low to mid-80s in the valleys and upper 70s to around 80 in the higher elevations, still right around climatological normals for early July. A southerly breeze will pick up by the afternoon hours with a few gusts 20 to 30 mph expected.

A prefrontal trough and weak cold front will begin to cross the state Wednesday night. Some showers and embedded thunderstorms will approach western areas around midnight and track farther eastward toward daybreak. Instability will be fairly low with MUCAPE values generally less than 100 J/kg. With the main forcing remaining well to the north and west, this activity should decrease in intensity and coverage with eastward extend.
As a result, only looking at isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder reaching the Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. The extra clouds and light southerly wind will keep temperatures mainly in the 60s Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Independence Day will feature warm to hot temperatures with increased humidity as dewpoints reach into the mid 60s to low 70s at low elevations. Afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in high terrain and mid to upper 80s at lower elevations will result in heat indices exceeding 90 degrees within the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, but heat advisories are not anticipated at this point. Showers may linger into the morning as the cold front continues to track southeastward while diurnal heating south of the boundary may allow for enough destabilization to yield a few additional thunderstorms through the afternoon, especially south of Albany. Much of the shower activity should end by the evening, however a few stray showers may persist into the overnight period. Lows Thursday night remain mild, in the upper 50s to upper 60s across the region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The period starts on Fri with a cyclone tracking east across the Midwest, with a warm front extending south/east from the cyclone into the mid Atlantic region. There will already be a warm air mass in place, with increasing moisture south of the front. It may get close enough to produce isolated to widely scattered showers/T- storms Fri afternoon/evening, mainly south of Albany.
It will be very warm with highs approaching 90F in the Hudson Valley.

The warm front lifts north across the area Fri night bringing scattered showers/T-storms. Sat looks warm and increasingly humid in the warm sector, but cloud cover may limit temperatures. Dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 70s in lower elevations. The aforementioned cyclone is expected to track across northern portions of the Great Lakes to near the Ontario/Quebec border, with a trailing cold front pushing east across our area Sat afternoon into Sat evening. Given increased forcing, there will be scattered to numerous showers/T-storms during this time. Given sufficient instability/shear, there could be some strong to severe storms. Will continue to monitor trends.

The "cold" front will be east of the region on Sunday, with the air mass behind it similarly warm but somewhat less humid.
Mainly dry conditions are expected with weak high pressure building in, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal on Mon. With high pressure in place, it should be dry again outside of an isolated diurnally driven shower. Increasing chances for showers/T-storms arrive on Tue, as an upper level trough and associated surface fronts approach from the west.

AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Flying conditions are VFR for all sites with sct-bkn high level clouds in place. These high level cirrus clouds will continue to remain in place through the overnight hours. There is a low t/td spread in place and calm winds, which would be favorable for radiational fog. However, the high clouds in place may prevent this from occurring. A brief period of fog may occur at KGFL around daybreak based on the local terrain, otherwise, the short duration of the overnight and passing clouds should help prevent any fog at the other sites, with continued VFR conditions.

Through the day on Wednesday, flying conditions will be VFR for all sites with no precip. There will be some periods of mid and high level clouds through the day. Some diurnal cu will develop in the afternoon as well. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower on Wednesday evening. While the first part of Wednesday night should be dry, a stray shower can't be ruled out by the second half of the overnight.

Southerly winds will pick up during the day on Wednesday to around 10 kts. Some higher gusts are possible, especially at KALB. Winds will decrease somewhat on Wednesday night, but will still be 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Coxsackie
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