Cairo, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cairo, NY

April 12, 2024 5:12 PM EDT (21:12 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM
Moonrise 8:28 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cairo, NY
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 122025 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 425 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
Afternoon showers and a few rumbles of thunder exit by sunset with winds shifting to the southwest and remaining breezy.
Winds stay breezy overnight with much cooler air overspreading the region in the wake of a cold front. Additional rain and even snow showers for the higher terrain return tonight and continue into the day tomorrow. We remain breezy and turn noticeably colder tomorrow.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 4pm EDT...A potent ~978hPa closed low is located in southern Ontario with strong kinematics continuing over much of the Northeast with VAD ENX wind profile showing unidirectional south-southwesterly winds ranging 30 - 40kts winds extending through much of the column. Dew points this afternoon remain quite high in the upper 50s to around 60 and our warm, moist environment has led to warm rain processes today. Rain has evolved into an organized area of rain mainly north of I-90 with hourly rainfall rates up to 0.25 - 0.50" in a hour per NYS mesonet observations. 6-hourly rainfall amounts range 0.25 - 0.75" with local amounts up 1" in the southern Adirondacks. This is on top of the 0.50 - 1.25" rain that fell overnight with many areas already saturated given the recent wet periods.
Today's rain overperformed as forcing and moisture remained parallel to the incoming dew point boundary and led to slowing moderate to locally heavy rain. We continue to closely monitor poor drainage/urbanized flooding and river rises. River rises will need to be monitored into this evening. See our hydro discussion for more details.

The area of steady rain exits late this afternoon with winds shifting to the southwest in its wake. Winds will turn gusty as guidance indicates a period of quick pressure rises immediately behind the trough axis. However, given the main cold air advection is delayed until closer to 06 UTC when the trough axis pushes through, it will be tough for the strongest winds to mix down to the sfc. Still expecting a brief window later this afternoonfor gusts to reach 30 - 40mph as the winds shift to the southwest, especially in western New England and the Taconics.

We will have a brief dry yet breezy period this evening before the trough axis and upper level closed low moves overhead towards or after Midnight ushering in a much cooler air mass and wrap around precipitation thanks to moist, cyclonic flow.
Winds shift from the southwest to west overnight in the wake of the trough axis, resulting in cold air advection. Temperatures trend into the 40s in the valley with 30s in the higher terrain. Rain showers may mix with or even turn to mainly wet snow showers in the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s by the pre-dawn hours. Additional rain amounts overnight are still expected to be much lower compared to the daytime with just around or under 0.10" expected. With breezy westerly winds continuing overnight and froude numbers remaining under 1 suggesting blocked flow, some upslope showers should lead to enhanced precip amounts on the west facing slopes of the Taconics and southern Greens.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
It will feel much cooler tomorrow as we remain under the influence of the upper level closed low and moist, cyclonic flow. Temperatures will struggle to rise out of the 40s thanks to strong west to northwest winds gusting up to 30 - 40mph and cloudy skies. Winds will be close to reaching wind advisory criteria (46mph+) with the best chance in the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills, Taconics, Berkshires, southern Adirondacks and southern Greens where gusts up to 50mph are forecast. However, the cloudy skies and limited boundary layer mixing may impede the strongest winds from reaching the sfc over a larger geographic area but will continue to monitor trends.
If confidence in wind gusts reaching or exceeding 46mph in a larger area increases, we may need the issue a wind advisory.

Additional wrap around rain showers will continue through the daytime with the froude number trending back up above 1 during the morning, suggesting flow will no longer be blocked and showers should track overtop the Taconics and southern Greens.
Valley areas should see less shower activity compared to the western Mohawk Valley, southern/western Adirondacks, and eastern Catskills as showers may downslope and dry up as they reach the valley. Given chilly temperatures, the higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens can continue to see wet snow showers but accumulations look minimal, generally near or under an inch. Froude number trend downwards during the afternoon as winds shift to the northwest suggesting some upslope enhancements may return to the west side of the Taconics and southern Greens. Even still, overall QPF amounts daytime Saturday should be highest in western New England and the western/southern Adirondacks due to upslope enhancements resulting in 0.15 - 0.30" (locally up to 0.50" at the crest of the southern Greens) with under a tenth in the Hudson Valley.

Our upper level low and the associated moist, cyclonic flow slowly exits Saturday night, ending our wrap around showers.
Clouds should give way to clearing as subsidence builds into the Northeast which will help temperatures cool down even further into the 30s. Northwest winds will remain breezy overnight with gusts up to 30mph still possible through at least Midnight.
Winds should be on the downward trend thereafter as high pressure from the mid- Atlantic builds into the area.

We start Sunday dry with even some early sun. However, a sfc warm front will be pushing into the Northeast with a northern stream shortwave tracking into northern New England. While temperatures will be warmer than Saturday, highs will be dependent on how far north the sfc warm front track. Should it end up tracking further north, more of our region will enter the associated warm sector and climb into the 60s (even mid-60s).
Areas that remain near or north of the boundary will end up cooler in the 50s. Areas in the warm sector should have an opportunity to destabilize with a notable low and mid-level jet from the mid-Atlantic spreading into the region leading to increased shear. Morning sun will fade behind increasing clouds as the northern stream disturbance and cold front arrive during the afternoon. Areas in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT should remain dry the longest and has the greatest potential to enter into the warm sector which could be primed for some strong to even severe weather. The incoming cold front sweeps through the region Sunday afternoon into the evening and will likely lead to areas of rain and potential thunderstorms, especially for areas that can tap into the warm sector.

Showers associated with our cold front should end Sunday evening with temperatures trending cooler overnight in its wake dropping into the 40s to upper 30s. Some partial clearing will also ensue.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

We finally get a break from the active weather pattern Monday and Tuesday and should enjoy dry, spring-like weather. Our upper level trough will be exiting the Northeast on Monday but we remain under northwest flow as high pressure from the Great Lakes builds eastward. Winds remain a bit breezy as the pressure gradient stays tight resulting in dry and weak cool air advection. Still expecting spring-like temperatures Monday thanks to deeper boundary layer mixing so we bumped up highs compared to the NBM guidance to show temperatures reaching into the low 60s in the valley with mid to upper 50s in the higher terrain. Any early clouds should break for increased sun as well.

Tuesday will be the pick of the week as high pressure and upper level ridging build overhead leading to plenty of sunshine and very pleasant spring temperatures warming well into the 60s.
PWATS drop 0.50" under continued northwest flow and dry air advection so we will have a dry air mass in place.

Chances for precipitation return Wednesday through Friday as our next low pressure system tracks from the Midwest through the Great Lakes. While there is decent forecast agreement that we will have to monitor a southern stream shortwave and watch if it phases with a northern stream trough in the Upper Great Plains, there remain uncertainties on how exactly when, how or even if this phasing occurs. This system may lead to another period of widespread rain but again there remains uncertainty. We have widespread chance POPs in the forecast Wed through Friday and will continue to monitor trends over the coming days.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 18z Saturday...A cold front will pass through the area from SW to NE this afternoon between 19z to 22z. SHRA with occasional downpours and isolated thunder are expected to accompany the passage of the front. Coverage of TSRA not anticipated to be expansive enough to mention in TAFs, but will monitor trends closely for possible amendments. Mainly MVFR conditions are expected through the rest of the afternoon, with brief periods of VFR at KALB/KGFL and IFR possible at KPSF.

After the cold front passage mainly VFR conditions are expected into this evening, with MVFR cigs then developing later this evening and especially overnight. Scattered showers will occur as an upper level low pressure system moves over the region. There may be some periods of more widespread showers on Saturday, with the best potential at KPSF where prevailing showers have been mentioned. For now will mention VCSH at the other sites. Mainly MVFR conditions should occur on Saturday.

Winds will initially be southerly at 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt ahead of the cold front, then shifting to the southwest by later this afternoon behind the cold front with similar speeds/gusts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.



HYDROLOGY

Rainfall over the past 24 hours has amounted to 1 to 2.50 inches with multiple river rises noted on the Esopus, Schoharie, Williams, and Housatonic river basins.. Daytime rainfall today has overperformed and with rivers already elevated from rain last night, some rivers will stay near bankfull through this evening. Some forecast points may even see renewed river flooding, especially on the Schoharie and Esopus Creek given that the most rain has fallen in the eastern Catskills. The warm, moist environment over the region today with high freezing heights ~10kft has resulted in efficient warm rain process with the unidirectional flow through the column and parallel to the sfc boundary supporting training or heavy rain repeatedly impacting an area.

Hourly rainfall amounts from the NYS mesonet have been rather impressive reaching 0.25 - 0.50" in spots. Such heavy rainfall rates and the slow nature of the rain has produce localized urban and poor drainage flooding. Luckily, the heavy rain should exit into New England and the North Country by sunset, ending the urban/poor drainage flooding potential. Rivers will remain elevated into this evening and we will continue to monitor river rises/crest levels for any renewed flooding.

River observations and forecasts can be monitored using the National Water Prediction Service located at water.noaa.gov.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 29 mi102 min S 2.9 55°F 29.2452°F
TKPN6 29 mi54 min S 16G21 57°F 48°F29.3150°F
NPXN6 41 mi102 min S 8.9 54°F 29.3351°F


Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KALB26 sm11 minS 063 smOvercast Lt Rain 57°F54°F88%29.27
Link to 5 minute data for KALB


Wind History from ALB
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Tide / Current for Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York
   
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Coxsackie
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Fri -- 12:58 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:26 AM EDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:44 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.9
1
am
0.5
2
am
0.9
3
am
2
4
am
3.3
5
am
4.4
6
am
5.1
7
am
5.5
8
am
5.4
9
am
4.6
10
am
3.4
11
am
2.5
12
pm
1.6
1
pm
0.7
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
1
4
pm
1.9
5
pm
2.9
6
pm
3.6
7
pm
4
8
pm
4.2
9
pm
3.8
10
pm
3
11
pm
2.1



Tide / Current for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
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Fri -- 01:40 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:53 AM EDT     5.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:26 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:24 PM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
1.5
1
am
0.9
2
am
0.7
3
am
1.4
4
am
2.8
5
am
4.1
6
am
5.1
7
am
5.7
8
am
6
9
am
5.5
10
am
4.4
11
am
3.3
12
pm
2.4
1
pm
1.4
2
pm
0.7
3
pm
0.7
4
pm
1.5
5
pm
2.6
6
pm
3.6
7
pm
4.2
8
pm
4.6
9
pm
4.5
10
pm
3.8
11
pm
2.9




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Albany, NY,



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