Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:49 AM   Moonset 5:39 PM

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FXUS61 KBGM 060126 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 926 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will slowly move through the region Monday sweeping away the low clouds, showers and any fog. High pressure builds into the region but only for a short stay Tuesday. Additional systems with some showers move through for the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
930 PM Update...

Radar imagery shows virga over the southern tier of NY, otherwise conditions are pretty quiet across the area this evening. A few showers are popping up to the west our of CWA as another wave of moisture moves in. These showers will be light in nature and are expected to reach the region within the next few hours. Made the usual updates to temperatures and dewpoints using current observations, no other changes were needed at this time.

630 PM Update...

Rain showers remain over the western Catskill region of NY, otherwise showers have dissipated across the area. Radar favors HRRR solution, therefore blended this into the previous forecast. Other CAMs show some light pop up showers occurring later this evening and overnight, as a result kept slight chance Pops in the forecast. Also made minor changes to update temperatures and dewpoints using current observations.

330 PM Update...

A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight. However, the main shortwave ahead of the front will shift east of the region of this evening. This will lead to a decrease in shower coverage across the region from west to east. The overall flow looks weak, leading to light winds. The light winds coupled with clouds and lingering moisture may result in some fog development as well overnight. Temperatures may also hold fairly steady as a result of the clouds and fog through most of the night.

The cold front only slowly moves through the area Monday so low clouds and fog will be hard to clear out especially in NE PA.
However, some sunshine is expected by the afternoon allowing temperatures to push 70. Clear skies and light winds under high pressure Monday night. A fairly favorable setup for raditional cooling as a result of the above mentioned with temperatures falling fairly quickly to around 40. This looks to be just warm enough to prevent any frost but fog may be possible again though.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
250 PM Update...

High pressure will continue to slide into the area from the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions will make for a very lovely Tuesday. Winds will remain light and variable during the day as the center of the surface high moves overhead. Plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the 70s, even with a cooler airmass overhead.

The ridge and surface high will move east of the area by late afternoon as the next low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region. This low will bring a wind shift to SWerly, and push a weak warm front into the region during the evening hours. Rain showers are expected to develop over the area by the mid evening through Wednesday morning as the low tracks over CNY. Temperatures overnight will fall into the mid to upper 50s.

The warm front doesn't push too far north as the low quickly track across the region and drags a weak cold front through the area by late morning. Soundings show some pretty dry air in the mid and upper level of the atmosphere accompanying this front so additional showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible along the front, but should not linger once the it passes. The warm front retreats to NEPA, where temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. In NY, where the cold front and rain has more impacts, temps will only reach the upper 60s to low 70s.

Weak mid-level ridging moves into the area Wednesday night, which will keep conditions dry, but should pull in some cooler Canadian air. Temps are expected to fall into the upper 40s to low 50s. The Wyoming Valley should remain in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
315 PM Update...

Active weather continues for the end of the work week as a low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley on Thursday and weak low pressure develops off the Delmarva Peninsula on Friday, continuing to trek to the ENE. Rain showers and cooler temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday. A transient ridge moves over the region Saturday behind the departing trough, keeping conditions cool and mostly dry. There will be a chance for a few isolated afternoon showers as a weak shortwave moves into the area from the west. Sunday should see more showers as another trough moves into the region. The GFS and Euro are handing this very differently, with the GFS having a much deeper and stronger trough dig into the southern US and slowly rotate from positive to negative over the eastern US while the Euro has a flatter and much more transient trough. Because of this uncertainty, NBM PoPs were relied upon, bringing a chance (30-50%) of rain to the area Sunday.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
745 PM Update

Widespread MVFR/Fuel Alt CIGs are across the area early this evening, with IFR already at BGM and AVP.

Ceilings should lower to IFR before 06z at ELM and ITH...and by around 09z early Monday morning at SYR and RME. Widespread IFR to LIFR CIGs then persist through the morning hours, before gradually lifting to MVFR or even VFR at all sites (except AVP)
by 16-18z Monday. AVP finally lifts above IFR by around 20z Monday afternoon. VFR at all sites except AVP expected by 21-11z Monday afternoon/evening.

There remains some uncertainity with the visibility overnight into Monday morning. Blended model data shows vsbys falling between 1-4SM at all of our taf sites by daybreak. It's possible some pockets of lower visibility and even dense fog form; pin pointing where is too uncertain at this time. Visibility rises back to high end MVFR and VFR by late morning or midday.

Light southerly winds under 10 kts overnight, turning west- southwest under 5 kts Monday morning. Winds eventually turn northwest Monday afternoon 5-10 kts.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Patchy early morning fog possible.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely with a period of rain showers along a warm front.

Wednesday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR; except lingering MVFR possible at RME & perhaps SYR. Isolated t'storm possible.

Thursday through Friday... Periods of showers with some restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

Tivoli
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Sun -- 04:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:23 PM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:55 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tivoli, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Catskill
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Sun -- 12:49 AM EDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:34 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:14 PM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Catskill, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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