Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 2:44 AM   Moonset 1:50 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405031515;;535348 Fzus51 Kbuf 030815 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 415 am edt Fri may 3 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-031515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 415 am edt Fri may 3 2024
Today - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 031854 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 254 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will give way to a slow moving frontal boundary that will push through the area Sunday. High pressure looks to be short lived early next week before another frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through most of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

High pressure in place across our region will attempt to slow down a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. This should keep most of the showers with the front west and south of the region through most of Saturday. Though a few of the models have a glancing blow from some light showers in NE PA and west of the Finger Lakes in NY. Coverage of showers should ramp up Saturday night given increasing moisture and lift ahead of the frontal boundary. QPF through Saturday night looks to be a half inch or less, so no concern for flooding issues. Instability also looks to be very little if any does happen to develop.

Temperatures tonight look to be a few degrees warmer due to clouds only falling to around 50 then struggle to rise into the low 60's on Saturday. Lows look to end up a few degrees cooler Saturday night.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
120 PM Update...

Zonal flow pattern aloft keeps conditions relatively active during this period. Rain showers are expected to continue on Sunday as an occluded front slowly moves eastwards. Meanwhile a low pressure system over the Great Lakes drags a cold front into our region by Sunday evening. This will bring more showers with a few thunderstorms possible in the evening hours. Rainfall amounts are up to a quarter inch but any evening thunderstorms that develop could drop an inch of rain. Instability parameters are weak on model guidance, therefore not expecting much concern with these storms.
Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs ranging in the low 50s to low 60s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to deviate far off of daytime highs. Lows will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers Monday through Monday night. Not expecting a lot of rain with this system as the levels remain relatively dry. Precip chances are more favorable to the south of our region. Otherwise once this weak system moves thorough conditions remain dry overnight with brief high pressure building in over the Great Lakes. Temperatures on Monday will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the afternoon and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
120 PM Update...

A warm front draped over the midwest approaches the region on Tuesday. Model guidance shows some timing differences in the arrival of this system. Regardless showers are expected to move in at least by the evening time frame and last overnight. This should leave most of Tuesday precipitation free. As of now Tuesday appears to be the driest day during this period. Warm front passes sometime Wednesday through Thursday bringing in more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Similar pattern continues into Friday as well with yet another disturbance moving into the region. Otherwise temperatures during this period will remain mild with highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR throughout the TAF period with southerly winds 10 knots or less. Some lowering of ceilings late in the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Sunday night...A couple passing frontal boundaries will result in scattered showers and restrictions, especially Saturday night onward. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible.

Monday... Mainly VFR.

Monday Night through Wednesday...VFR then increasing chance of rain and restrictions Tuesday afternoon through night. Embedded thunder also possible late Tuesday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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