Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marathon, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:59PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 12:42 AM EDT (04:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 10:58AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201908210915;;960952 Fzus51 Kbuf 210215 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1015 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-210915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1015 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms again later in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marathon, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 210223
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1023 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will come into the region tomorrow morning
and kick off showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will pass
Thursday with isolated showers. High pressure builds in behind
the front with cool fall-like weather through the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday night
1020 pm update...

a few light radar returns over NE pa... Expected to float
north NE into the catskills during the early overnight
hours... With a second batch of showers and storms rolling
through around and just after sunrise... With a break and then
more development in the afternoon. Just some minor adjustments
to the forecast... No major changes.

Previous discussion...

complicated forecast for Wednesday, with a possibility for
severe thunderstorms, however, that threat does appear lower now
with the latest 12z model guidance.

Weak surface low trough develops and will track into the region
early tomorrow morning. Forecast soundings indicate some
elevated instability early Wednesday, but there is doubt that we
will have much time to destabilize as this wave could arrive
before sunrise. Still, some heavy showers with embedded
thunderstorms is possible with this wave. Mid- level lapse
rates in the nam GFS forecast soundings are very weak after the
morning wave passes, barely better than moist adiabatic with 500
mb temperatures only in the -6c to -7c range. SPC mentions the
possibility of an MCV moving into the region later Wednesday
afternoon evening, but confidence is low where this feature will
actually track at this time. Also, we may not be able to
recover from convection earlier in the day before it arrives.

For now, have left enhanced wording with gusty winds in the
forecast, as we remain in the slight chance risk and there is
some uncertainty with the timing of shortwave in the morning,
but we may not exactly know where the severe risk will be until
we see how that morning convection unfolds.

Finally, there is also going to be some concern for flash
flooding on Wednesday, mostly due to how wet we have been the
past several days. Forecast soundings show pwat values
exceeding 1.75" and if we can destabilize, deep moist convection
is possible with warm cloud layer near 12k feet and skinny
cape saturated profiles.

Cold front starts to enter from the northwest late Wednesday
night, but forcing is weak along the front and due to the
timing, not expecting anything more than isolated to scattered
showers entering the finger lakes region by daybreak Thursday.

Short term Thursday through Friday
Upper trough and northerly surface flow will dominate the short
term. Secondary front may trigger a few showers as it passes
Thursday, although there is uncertainty as the NAM is drier
that the euro, which is is trending drier as well. Front stalls
near the maryland border on Friday but high pressure noses in
from the great lakes so expect dry but cooler weather for the
end of the work week.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Surface high pressure slides through southern ontario into
quebec as the region sits under a long wave trough. This will
keep the area cool but dry through the period. Core of the upper
low meanders through western new england as well, and there's a
small chance of some instability showers, especially over the
eastern zones, but have not included in the grids. There will be
a fair amount of daytime clouds with the cold pool aloft, so
afternoon temperatures should be below normal.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
730 pm update...

vfr conditions through most of tonight. Clouds then showers and
thunderstorms come in late tonight. Thunderstorms with fuel
alternate MVFR CIGS and MVFR vsbys come into cny as early as
11z then end by 17z. In ny ceilings lift back toVFR around 18z.

Convection will then be isolated.

For avp, some MVFR conditions and showers starting around 12z.

Thunderstorms most likely late in the day.

Winds tonight light and variable or light southeast. Wednesday
winds shift to the south at 5 kts in the morning then southwest
at 4 to 8 kts in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

Thursday... Scattered showers and possible brief restrictions as
a cold front passes, otherwiseVFR.

Thursday night through Sunday...VFR, except late night early
morning fog possible at kelm over the weekend.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mpk
near term... Bjt mpk
short term... Dgm
long term... Dgm
aviation... Tac


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 74 mi61 min SSE 8 G 11 74°F 1014.3 hPa62°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 95 mi43 min S 6 G 8.9 77°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 97 mi61 min 76°F 1013 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY16 mi47 minE 310.00 miFair68°F64°F90%1015.7 hPa
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY17 mi50 minSSE 610.00 miFair69°F63°F81%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------E3CalmE4--E4E3CalmCalm3455CalmW5--S5S6SE4SE4SE4
1 day ago----S6--SE6----S6S6CalmSW4S4--W7W8W7NW8--NW10NW8NW7CalmN4Calm
2 days agoSE3SE3CalmE4E4--E4E4E3E4--S8S10S10S9S9S6S7S8S7SE3S8S7S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.