Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marathon, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A clipper system will drag a cold front through the region tonight into tomorrow morning with a widespread coating to 2 inches of snow and much colder temperatures.

2) Next system on Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring a chance for a wintry mix.

3) Big warm up for the end of the week, but the pattern will remain active, with chances for rain. Potential for ice jams will increase towards the end of the week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures have overperformed today, with highs coming in close to 5 degrees above the forecast with plenty of warm sunshine. Tonight into tomorrow morning will be a different story. A quick hitting clipper system will drag a cold front through the region overnight and Sunday morning. This system will bring a widespread light snow, with most of the area seeing a coating to possibly as much as 2 inches. The main story will be the cold air advection behind the front. Expect a non-diurn temperature trend tomorrow as the high temperature will likely be reach during the early morning hours. Tomorrow afternoon will only see temperatures into the upper teens to low 20s across Central NY and Twin Tiers and upper 20s to low 30s in the Wyoming Valley. NW flow tomorrow afternoon will have the chance to bring some lake enhanced snow showers downstream from Ontario and the Finger Lakes, but only very light accumulations will be possible.

Tomorrow night will see temperatures will range from single digits below zero to low teens. Winds will become calmer after the front passes through, though wind chills will be near or below zero late Sunday night into early Monday morning. With Monday night be slightly warmer, wind chills will be above zero for most, though still only in the single digits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Cold air will be settled over the area when our next system arrives early Tuesday. Overrunning warm air will punch a warm nose in at around H850, but still low confidence on the depth and strength of this warm layer. There is good potential for a wintry mix with this system and at this time forecast soundings support more sleet/snow and then rain, instead of freezing rain, but this will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer.
Temperatures will start out well below freezing Tuesday, so precipitation will be mainly snow during the morning, as the warm layer aloft shouldn't punch through until a little later in the day. The warm front associated with this system eventually lifts north and allow temperatures to warm up into the 30s Tuesday afternoon. High pressure to the north will limit the northward extent of the warm front and the track of the associated system. Warmer air will eventually win out as high pressure recedes to the northeast, but some enough colder air could still hold on in the Mohawk Valley and Catskills until Wednesday morning. Otherwise, precipitation will mainly turnover to plain rain Tuesday night across the rest of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Big warmup for the second half of the week and into next weekend.
Temperatures will make a run for 60 on Friday and Saturday.
This warmup will likely start getting some ice moving as early as Thursday, and potential for ice jams will increase as we head into next weekend. On top of the warm air, there will be potential for several shortwaves to push through, bringing multiple chances for rain Wednesday through Saturday. This warmup should hack away at the snowpack and unfortunately, there will be some hydro concerns, especially with the potential ice jam threat as well. For now, it's too early for any hydro headlines, but this will be something to monitor through the week, especially if any of these upcoming systems bring decent rainfall.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A NW wind shift will occur through this afternoon with gusts around 25 KTS possible. A weak system will sweep through the region overnight into Sunday morning with MVFR restrictions developing after 06Z. Occasional IFR visibility is also expected from some of the heavier snow showers in Central NY.

Conditions are expected to return to VFR toward 15Z and beyond on Sunday.

Outlook:

Sunday Night.. MVFR with scattered snow showers in the vicinity of KSYR-KRME-KITH.

Monday through Monday Night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Chance for rain/snow showers and associated restrictions, especially later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Thursday...Restrictions likely in periods of rain or snow.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.