Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Hill, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:04PM Sunday August 18, 2019 5:03 PM EDT (21:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 8:01AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201908181530;;828443 Fzus51 Kbuf 181217 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 817 Am Edt Sun Aug 18 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-181530- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 817 Am Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Today..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers with Thunderstorms likely early and again after 2 pm. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds. Becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. Due to upwelling, the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees. Meanwhile the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 71 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Hill, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 181928
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
328 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
Southerly winds will pull hot and humid air into ny and pa on
Monday with thunderstorms possible again during the afternoon.

However, storms will be mostly diurnally driven on Monday with
the lack of any significant forcing. More showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and especially Wednesday as
as a strong cold front pushes through Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. Surface high pressure and cool
conditions for the end of the week.

Near term through Monday night
More widespread thunderstorms developing across the region
today as a short wave crosses. Some storms could severe, as cape
values top out above 1500 j kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 35
knots. There is also a threat for flash flooding into this
evening, with forecast soundings showing pwats topping out over
1.75" and short corfidi vectors indicate a good possibility for
back building cells training.

Southwest return flow pushes hot and humid air into ny and pa
for Monday. Temperatures will rise to between 85 and 90 degrees
across the twin tiers with heat indices possibly reaching the
mid-90s. Another round of thunderstorms is likely during the
afternoon peak heating, but any perturbations pushing through
the westerly zonal flow aloft tomorrow appear weak, so forcing
will be quite limited.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
Surface high pressure pushes over the NE u.S. With upper trough
starting to dip down from ontario Tuesday evening. Highest
chances for thunderstorms will be across the southern forecast
area during MAX heating, but rain chances will depend on
positioning of the high. Euro keeps most of the region dry, with
most rainfall to the south of the area. Tend to lean more
towards the euro solution as the GFS seems to be digging upper
trough too quickly into the region Tuesday afternoon.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
No major changes made to the long term forecast with cooler high
pressure pushing into the region towards the end of the week
after a cold front passes Wednesday into Thursday.

345 am update...

warmth and humidity sneak back into the area one more time
Wednesday, in southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front.

This will provide fuel for a likely batch of thunderstorms as
the front passes through sometime in the late Wednesday-
Wednesday night time frame. Some potential for stronger
storms from higher shear values but details will be sorted out
with more confidence in coming days. It would not be unheard of
for a pre-frontal trough to complicate the set-up as often
happens in our region.

There is still at least a small chance for lingering convection
Thursday, but most model guidance has post-frontal cool and dry
air advection quickly getting underway which will lead to a
quiet period lasting right into next weekend.

Previous discussion...

used national blend of models (nbm) as a starting point for
this period. All synoptic models show a large upper trough
building into the northeast u.S by Friday with a large canadian
high pressure following the trough. This trough will push a cold
front through the region from Wednesday night to Thursday night
depending on which model you look at. So used the blend to
populate the pops in this time period. All synoptic models and
the nbm agree that cooler and drier air covers the region for
Friday and Saturday so have pops less than 15 percent both days.

Aviation 19z Sunday through Friday
New day, same story... Showers and thunderstorms will spread
across the region this afternoon and evening and should
dissipate after sunset. Any storm could certainly bring ifr
restrictions, but will have to amend as necessary if any site is
to see a direct hit. Forecast confidence is low for overnight
and into early Monday morning. Some model guidance is bringing
in mid to upper level cloud cover and that should be enough to
hinder fog development. However, if any site sees significant
rainfall from thunderstorms today, ifr fog may certainly
develop, even with cloud cover overnight.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon to Thursday... Restrictions possible in showers
and storms.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mpk
near term... Mpk
short term... Mpk mdp
long term... Mpk mdp
aviation... Mpk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 72 mi52 min N 2.9 G 8 80°F 1012.6 hPa69°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi64 min WNW 6 G 13 83°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi52 min 85°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY5 mi68 minS 710.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain76°F71°F85%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4S5SE4E3S3SE3SE3CalmE4E4E4E4E4E3E4E4S8S10S10S9S9S6S7S8
1 day agoS7CalmSE3NW8NW14W3SE3E3E3E4E5E4E4E4CalmSE6S6S7S10W5S4N14N5E6
2 days agoSW6SE10W3CalmSE4E4SE5SE4SE4SE5S6S7S4S5S6S9S6SW6W84SE8CalmSW6E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.