Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Hill, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 270540 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 140 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak system exiting the Mid Atlantic Coast is going to continue to produce light rain, drizzle and clouds for much of NE PA and into the Catskills through tonight. Conditions improve on Sunday with well above average temperatures. Those warm temperatures will persist into Monday. However, a more fall- like pattern returns through the middle of the week with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 1030 PM Update

The forecast remains on track tonight, with low stratus across pretty much the entire CWA east of the Finger Lakes and Thruway corridor. Temperatures are not expected to budge much with cloudy skies, fog, and light drizzle/mist.

Afternoon Update .

A weak low pressure system will cross just south of DELMARVA this afternoon and this system is responsible for the low level moisture across the southern half of our forecast area. NE PA and through the Catskills will have a chance for some light rain/drizzle through the night. Further north, rain/drizzle chances will be lower as you enter the Southern Tier, but cloudy conditions will be expected for much of the night.

Further north in Central NY it has been a beautiful day, with Syracuse topping 80 degrees today and upper 70s to low 80s has been seen across the Finger Lakes region and northeast into the Mohawk Valley this afternoon. Still unclear how far north cloud cover will spread tonight, but this area will remain dry and even if skies stay clear tonight, the low temperatures will only drop to the upper 50s with a warm air mass in place.

Conditions will improve everywhere tomorrow as ridging builds over the Northeast U.S. Widespread high temperatures in the upper 70s and even a few lower 80s is expected for much of the area. Deep SW return flow will also advect low level moisture into the region tomorrow, with dew points increasing into lower 60s will make it feel more like the end of August instead of September. However, by tomorrow night, a rain/drizzle will likely return to the southeastern half of the forecast area once again. Moisture will work its way in from the Atlantic tomorrow night as low level flow turns to more southeasterly. A weak shortwave will track northeast and into Eastern PA by early Monday morning. Rainfall chances will increase from south to north through the night with the highest chances east of I81.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Some showers are possible on Monday, especially east of I-81 as a weak wave moves northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Then much of the area should see a brief break in any shower activity Monday night with a dry slot working in ahead of the next round of rain. Highs on Monday will be above normal, mainly in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

A deepening low pressure system in Canada will drag a cold front through our area on Tuesday. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the front will advect plenty of moisture into the area. As a narrow band of rain moves through the area, locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. However, there is a lot of uncertainty within the model guidance on the exact placement of this band and therefore it is uncertain where the heavier rainfall may occur. Flooding is not expected to be a concern given the very dry antecedent conditions. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, especially Tuesday afternoon. However, with limited instability, not expecting these storms to be particularly strong. Highs on Tuesday will likely be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

By late Tuesday night, the front slowly pulls east of our area, allowing for showers to begin to taper off from west to east. However, another wave riding along the frontal boundary may keep showers around longer across the Catskills and Poconos.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Chances for showers linger through much of the extended period as the broad trough remains situated over the Great Lakes and stray shortwaves pass through our area. Exact placement of each of these shortwaves remains uncertain and therefore PoPs for any given day are no higher than chance.

A cooling trend will also occur through the extended period. After highs in the 60s on Wednesday and Thursday, 50s to lower 60s for highs are expected Friday through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low level moisture working into the region is leading to fog, mist, and low stratus. Minor drops in visibility are expected mainly at KBGM and KAVP, where fog and mist is most likely. Otherwise, IFR ceilings continue at KBGM the rest of the night, while KAVP, KELM and KITH generally stay under MVFR or fuel alternate ceilings at around 1200 to 2000 ft. Even some brief drops to MVFR have been seen at KRME, but KRME and KSYR should generally be to the northwest of these lower level clouds tonight.

Ceilings gradually lift to VFR after sunrise as skies start to clear out, then southerly winds turn breezy with gusts up to 20 kts possible. Winds die down into the night and additional lower level moisture working in will begin to bring in MVFR ceilings to KBGM and KAVP after 0Z Monday.

Outlook .

Monday into Thursday . Scattered showers and thunderstorms may lead to occasional restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MPK NEAR TERM . HLC/MPK SHORT TERM . BJG LONG TERM . BJG/HLC AVIATION . HLC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	72 mi	55 min	SSE 12 G 15				1012.4 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	81 mi	73 min	S 8.9 G 12	68°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	83 mi	55 min					1010.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY	5 mi	17 min	S 6	10.00 mi	Overcast	64°F	60°F	87%	1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY

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