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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 409 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers through early afternoon, then rain showers likely late. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of rain and light snow during the day, then a chance of rain showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 041744 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1244 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cooler air overspreads the region, with lake effect rain showers today gradually changing to some snow showers tonight.
This precipitation will be mainly in Central New York, though a rogue sprinkle or flurry could get into a bordering county of Pennsylvania at times. The weather will remain cool with a few passing chances of snow showers Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
1230 PM Update...
PoPs were updated with a blend of the previous forecast and the newest NAMNest and CMC guidance. Most changes were relatively minor. Some areas could see light freezing drizzle tonight as model soundings show the DGZ drying out with shallow moisture still present. Chances would be low and ice accumulation is not expected, though that will be reviewed more with the afternoon update. Otherwise, the forecast was doing well and only needed minor changes through the afternoon hours.

915 AM Update...
Overall the forecast was doing well and needed little change.
Sky cover was updated based on the latest satellite imagery as portions of the Poconos and Catskills remain clear, but clouds are quickly filling in to the south. Winds were also touched up based on the latest observations.

645 AM Update...
Healthy Lake Erie band of showers has extended well inland; already across Finger Lakes through Cooperstown and even in pieces to Albany. That said, temperatures remain upper 30s-lower 40s to start, and thus for now all precipitation is in the form of rain. Forecast on track.

Previous discussion...
Cooler air will gradually overspread the region, with a minor lake effect response causing rain showers changing to snow showers from the Twin Tiers northward. Accumulations, while limited, will be mainly in higher terrain of Central New York.

A cold front has finished passing through the region, with -5 to -7C 850mb temperatures advecting in from the west. Water temperatures remain warm enough for that combination to generate at least a minor lake response, even though initially it will be all liquid. With time, the boundary layer will become cold enough for mixing/changing over to snow showers late today through tonight. Temperatures this morning are near their highs for today; in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Tonight they will settle down into the upper 20s to lower 30s, followed by 30s to near 40 Tuesday.

Radar imagery shows a pretty good lake effect rain band coming off of Lake Erie, which some models and especially the Canadian- Regional, takes across the Twin Tiers. Meanwhile, Lake Ontario will generate showers for points farther north. For now this will mean bands of showers streaming across much of the area, with persistent post-frontal stratocumulus clouds as well. It will take until nightfall for wetbulb temperatures to get cold enough to support snow as precipitation type instead of rain; first in the higher terrain but eventually all elevations overnight.
That said, amounts will remain light, and not everyone will receive precipitation. By Tuesday, any lingering lake effect will be shallow, negligible, and mainly in the morning for Central New York. Lake clouds will attempt to diminish yet high clouds will already be thickening aloft ahead of our next wave.

Liquid-equivalent of precipitation today through Tuesday will range from none in Wyoming Valley-Poconos to less than a tenth of an inch for NY-PA border counties; then about one-two tenths of an inch for the NY Thruway counties. Meanwhile, snow accumulations will be minor and mainly tonight. Higher terrain in the typically more prone areas of Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Oneida, Madison, Northern Cortland, Northern Otsego, and Northern Chenango Counties could pick up a half inch to inch of snow. The remainder of the area, where snow even occurs, will generally be less than a half inch and mainly high terrain.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
320 AM Update:

With 850mb temperatures falling to around -10C and a northwest flow (albeit a weak one), combined with a weak shortwave moving through, some lake effect snow showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday across the Finger Lakes Region and perhaps as far south as the Southern Tier of NY. Dry conditions are expected for Northeast PA to the Catskills with partial clearing. Any additional snow accumulations will be light; mainly less than an inch.

Some additional lake effect snow showers are possible Wednesday morning, but otherwise an overall drying trend is expected as high pressure briefly moves in. Lake effect clouds will linger across much of Central NY, but partly sunny skies are expected farther south in Northeast PA. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s.

High pressure keeps conditions mainly dry Wednesday night. By Thursday morning, a weak clipper system will approach the area and work its way through the area during the day on Thursday.
This may bring a light rain/snow mix to the area, especially across Central NY. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs mainly in the 30s.

Whatever precipitation is left from the passing clipper system will quickly end Thursday night with ridging building in.
Temperatures will likely not fall very much, with lows expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
320 AM Update:

Relatively quiet weather is expected to start the long term period, before a potentially more significant system may impact the area sometime within the Saturday night-Monday timeframe.

Ridging will keep conditions mainly dry for Friday and much of Saturday, although a wave riding along this ridge across Canada may touch off a few rain or snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning. This ridge will also bring mild air into the region, with highs on Friday mainly in the 40s, and mid 40s to lower 50s for highs on Saturday. Partly sunny skies are generally expected during this period, with more cloud cover across Central NY/less cloud cover for Northeast PA.

The pattern becomes more interesting for the second half of the weekend as a rather amplified trough will allow for a deep low pressure system to form. This low will likely track northeastward through the Great Lakes Region, putting our region in the warm sector. Should this remain the case, this system would be a rain-maker for our region, perhaps mixing with snow on the backside of it as colder air filters in. As is usual this far out, there are rather significant timing differences in this system and differences regarding how amplified the trough gets.
Confidence is rather high in seeing widespread precipitation sometime between the Saturday night and Monday timeframe, but exactly when this will occur is uncertain.

With this low pressure system potentially getting quite deep, gusty winds will also be another potential impact. Considering how far out this is, stuck with the National Blend of Models for now for winds, but even this gives widespread 30-40 mph gusts across the area. Looking at some of the probabilistic guidance, it is certainly possible gusts could be higher, potentially approaching advisory criteria. This will continue to be monitored as we progress through this week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
18Z Update...
Scattered lake effect precipitation will impact the CNY terminals this afternoon. As the low-level winds become more northwesterly late this evening, SYR will have the best chance for lake effect snow showers. ITH and BGM could see some light snow showers/flurries as well, but confidence was too low to include. Ceiling restrictions will vary from VFR to Fuel Alt this afternoon but should settle in the MVFR/Fuel Alt categories this evening. IFR ceilings will be possible for a few hours overnight at ITH. AVP will get back to VFR around midday Tuesday while the NY terminals will remain in MVFR restrictions.

West to northwest winds will remain breezy through most of the overnight hours with peak gusts between 15 and 20 kts, though a couple rogue gusts could be higher this afternoon. Winds will generally become less gusty early Tuesday morning but sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts are expected.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Occasional ceiling restrictions possible with scattered snow showers, mainly at the Central NY terminals. Rain could mix in during afternoon hours.

Wednesday Night through Thursday evening...Mainly VFR Wednesday night, but a passing clipper system Thursday could yield brief shot of light snow and associated restrictions.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Low chance for rain showers and associated restrictions at NY terminals.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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